Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

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gera
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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by gera » Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:31 am

For those who thinks Thai baht will remain strong ( I do not think so), there is a way to open offshore Thai baht account.
I have one in HK with HSBC. My understanding ,though, that sending money in Thai baht to Thailand is not a good idea.
The advantage in comparison with an account in Thailand is lack of capital control.

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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Undaunted » Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:23 pm

The income option for retirement is 65,000 a month or 780,000 baht yearly at today’s dollar exchange rate Thai is approx. $26,000 U.S...... With the weakened dollar spend Thai Baht of the $800,000 option or opt for the 65,000 option?
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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Gaybutton » Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:44 pm

Undaunted wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:23 pm
$800,000 option or opt for the 65,000 option?
I wouldn't make any decisions that can't be reversed until we can be sure what really will happen with the exchange rates. With all the predictions I've seen over the years, they're very rarely right.

I'm wondering what might happen to lower income retirees who don't have 800,000 baht and barely make the 65,000 baht per month requirement. While before whatever they received per month might have fulfilled the requirement, but now they get less than 65,000 baht because of these miserable exchange rates.

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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Undaunted » Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:53 pm

Gaybutton wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:44 pm
I'm wondering what might happen to lower income retirees who don't have 800,000 baht and barely make the 65,000 baht per month requirement. While before whatever they received per month might have fulfilled the requirement, but now they get less than 65,000 baht because of these miserable exchange rates.
I suspect they are fucked! Do you think for one moment the present Thai government will make exceptions :?:
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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Gaybutton » Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:06 pm

Undaunted wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:53 pm
Do you think for one moment the present Thai government will make exceptions :?:
Not even for one second . . .

I meant I'm wondering how many will end up having to leave Thailand as a result. Even if someone's income is 64,999 baht just one month during the year, when all the rest of the months were 65,000 baht plus, it would come as no surprise to me if immigration refuses to grant the visa or extension.

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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by gera » Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:08 pm

The obvious option is to deposit 800000 baht in Thai bank and keep it there permanently, using whatever income available to cover (feasible) expenses.

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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Gaybutton » Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:26 pm

gera wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:08 pm
The obvious option is to deposit 800000 baht in Thai bank and keep it there permanently, using whatever income available to cover (feasible) expenses.
That's great for people who have 800,000 baht. What do you suggest for people who don't, and now due to the exchange rates can no longer meet the 65,000 baht per month requirement, even if it's only temporarily, - other than to start packing their bags . . . ?

Don't forget - the rule is 65,000 baht per month for an entire year. I have no idea if anyone is actually in such a situation, but if anyone is, the only thing I can think of is they will end up having to leave Thailand, get a new tourist visa, return to Thailand, and start the retirement visa process all over again.

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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Gaybutton » Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:30 pm

Here's the latest:
______________

BoT: Baht below 30 triggered by pre-New Year rush

December 31, 2019

The baht appreciation below 30 baht against a US dollar would be short-lived due to accelerated transactions before the New Year, according to the Bank of Thailand.

BoT deputy governor Mathee Supapongse said on Tuesday that the exchange rate below 30 baht per dollar on Monday afternoon was the exception rather than the rule. It was caused by some operators concluding their transactions before the year-end amid low liquidity in markets.

He was responding to the exchange rate of 29.88 baht per dollar, the strongest baht in six years.

Demand for foreign exchange was volatile before New Year holiday, he said.

Mr Mathee also attributed it to the prevailing regional trend of the greenback late this year.

After the long New Year holiday, liquidity and a balance between demand and supply would be restored, leading to less volaitily in foreign exchange rates, the BoT deputy governor said.

The BoT would keep the baht value in line with economic fundamentals and people should not panic about the brief fluctuation, Mr Mathee said.

The average baht value on Monday was at 30.12 baht per US dollar, he said.

The baht emerged as Asia's top performing currency, driven by the country's large current account surplus while the South Korean won was the top loser, weakening 3.5%, in 2019.

Most Asian currencies were set to end the year on a firm note, with the Taiwan dollar leading gains on Tuesday, as investors cheered fresh developments on the Sino-US trade deal front and upbeat factory activity data from China.

The White House's trade adviser said on Monday the Phase 1 deal would likely be signed next week, but said confirmation would come from President Donald Trump or the US Trade Representative.

The deal announced earlier this month has alleviated concerns about near-term escalation in tensions between the world's two top economies — a major sign of relief for currencies in Asia, most of which ended 2018 in the red.

Adding to the upbeat sentiment, data showed factory activity in China expanded for a second straight month in December, as Beijing's stimulus measures buoyed domestic demand.

The Taiwan dollar strengthened 0.5% on Tuesday, hitting its best level in more than a year. The trade-reliant economy has bucked a regional trend of growth downgrades, helped by manufacturers moving production back home from China to avoid higher tariffs.

China's yuan extended gains to a near three-week high, supported by a firmer-than-expected midpoint fixing by the central bank. Volatility was high during the year, with the currency breaching the key 7 per dollar level for the first time in over a decade in August, as trade tensions intensified.

The yuan was set for a second straight annual loss. The Singapore dollar edged up 0.1%, while the Malaysian ringgit advanced 0.3%. Investor focus will now turn to the fourth-quarter growth figures for Singapore, which is forecast to have expanded at a slightly faster pace, with economists expecting a pick-up in the services sector to compensate for a prolonged manufacturing downturn.

The Indian rupee ticked up 0.1% but was set for a second annual loss. Concerns over a slowdown in growth weighed on the rupee this year, with economists stressing on the need for more fiscal intervention.

Financial markets in the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea were closed for holidays. The Philippine peso and the Indonesian rupiah were up 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, in light offshore trade.

The peso and the rupiah were poised to gain about 3.5% and 3.6% respectively this year, with analysts saying these currencies benefited from demand for higher yields in a low-interest rate environment.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/18 ... -year-rush

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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Jun » Tue Dec 31, 2019 7:50 pm

Some thoughts:

1 Given the choice between 800,000 baht in a Thai bank account, or 65,000 per month, the 800,000 provides protection against further baht appreciation. So that's the safe option for anyone who is intent on remaining in Thailand and doesn't have a huge financial safety margin.

2 For anyone quite comfortable at present, it might still be worth "stress testing" finances and calculating how figures might look with a 30 or 50% fall in the value of your currency. If the result is not pretty, there is always the option of investing the spare income in Asia, in order to start hedging the risk.

I'm still amazed that there is so much discussion on the uncontrollable variable of exchange rates, but so little discussion about what to do to mitigate the risk, which must be controllable for some members. I appreciate some will be on a state or company backed pension, that's probably superior in many respects, but does make it difficult to hedge currency risk.

However, I guess some other members don't have such a fine pension, but do have assets which can be invested in any currency. So a less secure pension, but better hedging opportunities.

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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Undaunted » Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:39 pm

At the yellow and black exchange places which give a good rate the exchange rate at 3 pm was 29.65 to 1.00 US dollar.....Happy New Year :!:
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