Thailand's 2026 summer forecast to reach temperatures over 42°C (that's about 108°F)
by THE NATION
February 1, 2026
The Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) has predicted that the summer of 2026 will be hotter than the previous year.
The summer season is expected to begin later than usual, around the end of February 2026 (approximately two weeks later than typical), and will last until mid-May 2026.
The weather will alternate between scorching heat and thunderstorms, with some areas experiencing extremely high temperatures.
This is expected mainly during April to May 2026.
The average maximum temperature in northern Thailand is expected to reach 36-37°C, slightly higher than the usual average of 35.4°C and a small increase compared to the previous year (2025's average maximum was 35.8°C).
Overall, the rainfall is expected to be 30-40% below the normal levels.
Provinces forecasted to experience temperatures exceeding 42°C include:
* Mae Hong Son
* Lampang
* Tak
General Weather Outlook for Summer 2026
March to Mid-April
Warm temperatures will gradually increase, with hot conditions in many areas during the day.
Fog will occur in several regions, while the north and northeast will still experience cool mornings due to the influence of high-pressure systems from China.
However, by late March to mid-April, these pressures will weaken, and low-pressure systems caused by heat will dominate, leading to periods of hot and humid weather, with some areas experiencing temperatures as high as 42-43°C.
Summer storms are also expected in these areas, with thunder, gusty winds, and even hail in some regions, providing temporary relief from the heat.
Late April to Mid-May
As the season transitions, hot conditions will continue with occasional relief in the form of rainstorms.
By this time, the southeast winds bringing moisture from the Gulf of Thailand will shift, marking the beginning of the southwest monsoon.
This change will bring more rainfall, especially in the southern provinces, which will experience heavy rain and stronger winds.
Southern Thailand
From March to late April, winds from the east and southeast will cover the Gulf of Thailand and the southern regions, leading to a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms.
The seas in both the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea will have waves up to 1 meter high.
From mid-April to mid-May, rainfall will increase significantly, with some areas experiencing intense downpours, especially along the western coast of the South, where rainfall could cover 60-80% of the area.
The Andaman Sea will see stronger winds and waves up to 2-3 meters, while the Gulf of Thailand will have waves up to 1-2 meters as the southwest monsoon takes hold.
https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/ne ... l/40061952
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Summer coming late, but it'll be a scorcher
Thailand is forecast to enter a hotter‑than‑usual summer later this month, with peak temperatures in some northern provinces likely to climb beyond 42°C, according to the Meteorological Department.
The 2026 hot season is forecast to begin in late February, around two weeks later than normal, and end in mid‑May. Average maximum temperatures across the upper regions are expected to reach 36–37°C, slightly above both the long‑term seasonal norm of 35.4°C and last year’s average of 35.8°C.
The department warned that Mae Hong Son, Lampang and Tak are the most likely to experience extreme heat, with the mercury potentially rising above 42°C during the most intense period of the season.
- Weather patterns, rainfall outlook -
Conditions will be hot and humid for extended periods, punctuated by bouts of thunderstorms that may temporarily ease the heat. However, total rainfall is expected to be 30–40% below average, raising concerns about water shortages for household use and agriculture, particularly in drought‑prone areas outside irrigated zones.
The weather office outlined three phases of seasonal severity:
Early to mid‑March: Hot days in many areas; mornings remain cool in the North and Northeast; isolated summer storms possible.
Late March to mid‑April: The hottest spell nationwide, with widespread sultry conditions and extreme heat in some provinces, where maximum temperatures may reach 42–43°C. Summer storms may also develop intermittently in the North.
Late April to mid‑May: Transition to the rainy season brings more volatile conditions, with alternating heat and thunderstorms.
- Fire hazards, health risks -
Weathermen noted that the prolonged dryness will heighten the risk of forest fires and accidental fires, urging the public to use fuel and flammable materials cautiously.
They also warned of potential heat‑related illnesses, especially during peak heat in late March to mid‑April. Vulnerable groups such as the elderly, young children and people with chronic illnesses are advised to avoid prolonged exposure to extreme heat and stay alert to symptoms of heat stress.
The official arrival of summer and winter in Thailand is determined by changes in the trade winds.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/ge ... a-scorcher
Get those air conditioners serviced and in good shape
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Re: Get those air conditioners serviced and in good shape
El Niño 2026 could arrive early, raising Thailand’s heatwave risk from March to May
by Wirassanan Tuengtin
February 16, 2026
Kasetsart University economist Dr Witsanu Attavanich says Thailand has entered the “mid-phase” of El Niño, with full conditions likely by May 2026 and elevated heatwave risks—especially in the South and lower East.
Dr Witsanu Attavanich, an associate professor of economics at Kasetsart University and an expert in resource, environmental and climate-change economics, provided an update on Thailand’s flood-drought outlook as of February 16, 2026, saying the country has entered the “mid-phase” of the El Niño phenomenon and is likely to shift into a full El Niño by May 2026—earlier than previously expected. He said the event could persist until at least February 2027.
He warned the shift could raise Thailand’s exposure to heat hazards, dry spells, and more variable rainfall across multiple regions. During the hot season from March to May 2026, temperatures nationwide are expected to remain above average, with elevated heat continuing through August 2026. The South and the lower Eastern region face a higher heatwave risk than other areas.
What global models are indicating
Dr Witsanu said data from ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) indicates Thailand has entered the mid-phase and is likely to move into El Niño conditions in May 2026, potentially intensifying in November 2026 and remaining at a moderate-to-strong level into early 2027.
Meanwhile, NOAA models in the United States point in the same direction that El Niño is expected to occur, but estimate the probability of a strong El Niño at only 14% for September-November 2026, highlighting uncertainty over severity even as the overall trajectory aligns.
Forecast models from multiple institutions suggest:
* March-August 2026: temperatures nationwide higher than normal
* March-May 2026: high heatwave risk, with the South and East requiring closer monitoring
* May-July 2026: possible dry spells in the South, the upper North, and parts of the Northeast
* June-August 2026: the West and lower North may see higher-than-normal rainfall, including Tak, Kamphaeng Phet, Nakhon Sawan, Uthai Thani, Suphan Buri, and Kanchanaburi
Dr Witsanu added that IRI Columbia University data also suggests some areas may begin seeing signs of reduced rainfall from March to June 2026, becoming clearer in May to July, reflecting dry-spell risk in the early rainy season.
https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40062605
by Wirassanan Tuengtin
February 16, 2026
Kasetsart University economist Dr Witsanu Attavanich says Thailand has entered the “mid-phase” of El Niño, with full conditions likely by May 2026 and elevated heatwave risks—especially in the South and lower East.
Dr Witsanu Attavanich, an associate professor of economics at Kasetsart University and an expert in resource, environmental and climate-change economics, provided an update on Thailand’s flood-drought outlook as of February 16, 2026, saying the country has entered the “mid-phase” of the El Niño phenomenon and is likely to shift into a full El Niño by May 2026—earlier than previously expected. He said the event could persist until at least February 2027.
He warned the shift could raise Thailand’s exposure to heat hazards, dry spells, and more variable rainfall across multiple regions. During the hot season from March to May 2026, temperatures nationwide are expected to remain above average, with elevated heat continuing through August 2026. The South and the lower Eastern region face a higher heatwave risk than other areas.
What global models are indicating
Dr Witsanu said data from ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) indicates Thailand has entered the mid-phase and is likely to move into El Niño conditions in May 2026, potentially intensifying in November 2026 and remaining at a moderate-to-strong level into early 2027.
Meanwhile, NOAA models in the United States point in the same direction that El Niño is expected to occur, but estimate the probability of a strong El Niño at only 14% for September-November 2026, highlighting uncertainty over severity even as the overall trajectory aligns.
Forecast models from multiple institutions suggest:
* March-August 2026: temperatures nationwide higher than normal
* March-May 2026: high heatwave risk, with the South and East requiring closer monitoring
* May-July 2026: possible dry spells in the South, the upper North, and parts of the Northeast
* June-August 2026: the West and lower North may see higher-than-normal rainfall, including Tak, Kamphaeng Phet, Nakhon Sawan, Uthai Thani, Suphan Buri, and Kanchanaburi
Dr Witsanu added that IRI Columbia University data also suggests some areas may begin seeing signs of reduced rainfall from March to June 2026, becoming clearer in May to July, reflecting dry-spell risk in the early rainy season.
https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40062605
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Gaybutton
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Re: Get those air conditioners serviced and in good shape
Thailand's hot season "officially" begins Sunday, February 22 - and from the previous messages you can expect a very hot season this year due to El Niño.
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Thailand to enter hot season on Sunday
Summer storms likely next week, temperatures could peak above 42C in North
February 19, 2026
Thailand will enter its hot season on Sunday. Summer storms could start right away and temperatures in some northern provinces may reach a peak above 42 degrees Celsius, according to the Meteorological Department.
Prevailing weather conditions in the country meet the criteria for the hot season to start on Feb 22, Sugunyanee Yavinchan, the director-general of the department, said on Thursday.
The highest temperatures in the upper half of the country were at least 35°C and the prevailing wind directions have changed to southerly and southeasterly, she explained.
Ms Sugunyanee said summer storms as well as hailstorms will be possible in the upper half of Thailand at the beginning of the hot season, from Monday to Wednesday, because cold and hot air masses will collide during the transitional period.
She warned that extreme heat could occur from mid-March to April and temperatures might exceed 42C in the northern provinces of Lampang, Mae Hong Son and Tak, which would be hotter than last year. She expects the hot season to last until mid-May.
Ms Sugunyanee said the highest official temperature recorded over the past 75 years was 44.6C in Muang district of Mae Hong Son on April 28, 2016, and again in Muang district of Tak in 2023. Last year the peak was 42.3C in Muang district of Mae Hong Son.
She warned of higher heat stroke risk during April and May when the “apparent temperature” could be much higher than factual readings on thermometers because of humidity. Heat index or “feels like” readings in Thailand have been as high as 54C.
As the La Nina weather phenomenon is fading to a neutral state, rainfall this year will be close to the average but there are some signs of a slight drought in the North, the Central Plains and the East, Ms Sugunyanee said.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/ge ... -on-sunday
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Thailand to enter hot season on Sunday
Summer storms likely next week, temperatures could peak above 42C in North
February 19, 2026
Thailand will enter its hot season on Sunday. Summer storms could start right away and temperatures in some northern provinces may reach a peak above 42 degrees Celsius, according to the Meteorological Department.
Prevailing weather conditions in the country meet the criteria for the hot season to start on Feb 22, Sugunyanee Yavinchan, the director-general of the department, said on Thursday.
The highest temperatures in the upper half of the country were at least 35°C and the prevailing wind directions have changed to southerly and southeasterly, she explained.
Ms Sugunyanee said summer storms as well as hailstorms will be possible in the upper half of Thailand at the beginning of the hot season, from Monday to Wednesday, because cold and hot air masses will collide during the transitional period.
She warned that extreme heat could occur from mid-March to April and temperatures might exceed 42C in the northern provinces of Lampang, Mae Hong Son and Tak, which would be hotter than last year. She expects the hot season to last until mid-May.
Ms Sugunyanee said the highest official temperature recorded over the past 75 years was 44.6C in Muang district of Mae Hong Son on April 28, 2016, and again in Muang district of Tak in 2023. Last year the peak was 42.3C in Muang district of Mae Hong Son.
She warned of higher heat stroke risk during April and May when the “apparent temperature” could be much higher than factual readings on thermometers because of humidity. Heat index or “feels like” readings in Thailand have been as high as 54C.
As the La Nina weather phenomenon is fading to a neutral state, rainfall this year will be close to the average but there are some signs of a slight drought in the North, the Central Plains and the East, Ms Sugunyanee said.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/ge ... -on-sunday