US adds Thailand to currency watchlist
Monitoring strengthened, but no trading partner labelled a currency manipulator
January 30, 2026
The US Treasury Department kept Japan on its currency watchlist and added Thailand on Thursday, saying both countries will be monitored for potentially unfair foreign-exchange practices as part of its biannual report to Congress.
In its latest semi-annual currency report, the Treasury said no major trading partner met all three criteria for enhanced analysis of currency practices during the last half of 2024 and the first six months of 2025.
The addition brings the monitoring list to 10 countries, with China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, Germany, Ireland and Switzerland also remaining on the list.
All except Thailand were on the monitoring list in the previous report, with the department citing increases in the South Asian country's current and bilateral trade surpluses with the United States as the reason for its inclusion.
The department did not designate any trading partner as a currency manipulator, which could result in the imposition of US sanctions.
The report has traditionally focused on whether countries are engaging in one-sided currency intervention or other manipulation to resist appreciation against the dollar to keep their exports cheaper.
But going forward, the Treasury said it "is now monitoring more broadly the extent to which economies that choose to smooth exchange rate movements do so to resist depreciation pressure in the same manner as they do to resist appreciation pressure."
No specific country targeted
Asked if the change was meant to scrutinise Japan's currency practices more closely amid recent yen weakness, a Treasury official said the changes were not meant to single out any one country, but to aid the department's analysis during periods covered by future reports, during which the dollar has weakened against major currencies. The next report, due in November, will include the second half of 2025.
The official said that in particular, the Treasury would be looking to see whether countries' interventions to resist depreciation against the dollar are symmetrical with their efforts to resist appreciation, or less aggressive.
Japan has been battling a weak yen, with policymakers using calibrated communication to drive the currency higher against the dollar without resorting to large-scale market intervention.
Tokyo's efforts won tacit backing from US authorities after the New York Federal Reserve conducted dollar/yen rate checks last week - considered a possible intervention precursor move - a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.
But US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday said the US was "absolutely not" intervening to support the yen. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, edged higher on Thursday for a second straight day after touching its weakest level since February 2022 on Tuesday.
Other influences monitored
The Treasury also said that for countries on the monitoring list, it will analyse whether other government policies are influencing foreign exchange markets, such as capital controls, macroprudential measures or the use of government investment vehicles or pension funds.
The Treasury also will study countries' use of foreign exchange swaps to sterilise or offset spot interventions to minimise their impacts on domestic monetary conditions, as well as trading partners' net forward positions.
Traditionally, the Treasury's three main criteria for analysing foreign exchange and determining manipulation are a trade surplus with the US of at least $15 billion, a global current account surplus above 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) and persistent, one-way net foreign exchange purchases that reach 2% of GDP. Countries that meet two of these are automatically added to the list.
The Treasury did not label China a currency manipulator, avoiding a potential escalation in trade tensions with Beijing, despite what it called "depreciation pressure" facing its yuan currency. But the department said China "stands out among our major trading partners in its lack of transparency around its exchange rate policies and practices," repeating language from its previous report in June 2025.
"This lack of transparency will not preclude Treasury from designating China if available evidence suggests that it is intervening through formal or informal channels to resist (yuan) appreciation in the future," Treasury said.
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US adds Thailand to currency watchlist
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Re: US adds Thailand to currency watchlist
Bank of Thailand plays down US currency watchlist move
Baht policy unchanged as exporters are urged to monitor volatility
January 30, 2026
The Bank of Thailand says it remains confident in its ability to manage baht volatility against the US dollar after Thailand was added to a US Treasury watchlist for currency practices.
Chayawadee Chai-anant, assistant governor for corporate relations at the central bank, said on Friday that Thailand’s inclusion on the new foreign exchange watchlist would not affect its management of the baht.
She said the central bank typically manages baht volatility against the US dollar in both directions and does not pursue any objective of currency manipulation.
The recent designation was based mainly on Thailand’s trade and current account surpluses with the US, Ms Chayawadee said.
Thailand holds a current account surplus of roughly $17.7 billion, equivalent to around 3% of GDP.
“We have continued to report to and hold discussions with the US Treasury, and Thailand is unlikely to be designated a currency manipulator under the US criteria,” she said.
Nations on the monitoring list “warrant closer scrutiny”, noted the US Treasury, citing the growth of Thailand’s global current account surplus and its bilateral trade surplus with the US.
A Ministry of Finance source who requested anonymity said the central bank is likely to face greater difficulty in its operations because it is under increased pressure to limit currency intervention.
As a result, the baht is more likely to appreciate than peer currencies, as Thailand is required to demonstrate monthly transparency reporting in line with requests from the US.
The baht has moved in a relatively tight range against the dollar since the start of this year, and was trading on Friday at around 31.35 to the dollar, compared with 30.73 at the start of the week.
Exporters are advised to be cautious about baht volatility, the source noted.
Sectors recording a sharp surge in exports are likely to come under closer scrutiny, particularly electronic components and computers benefiting from the AI trend, as well as processed foods and canned fruit, which have already begun to be affected by tariff measures.
Placement on the list could be used as a bargaining tool in trade negotiations to pressure Thailand to open its markets further to US products in the future, the source added.
‘Warning bell’
Dhanakorn Kasetrsuwan, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC), said the US decision is unlikely to have an immediate impact on Thai exports as the list includes various countries.
He said inclusion on the list should be viewed as a policy “warning bell” rather than a structural threat, as it mainly affects market sentiment and exchange rate movements.
Exporters should strengthen their foreign exchange risk management during this period, Mr Dhanakorn said.
The TNSC reiterated that Thailand’s exchange rate policy is determined by market mechanisms and is not intended to create unfair trade advantages.
The council said it supports government agencies in communicating accurate information to US authorities and will work closely with relevant agencies to monitor developments and assess potential impacts on exporters across sectors.
The TNSC will also provide guidance on risk management strategies to help maintain Thailand’s competitiveness in the global market, he said.
“This is a cautionary signal that requires professional handling,” said Mr Dhanakorn.
“The council will convey exporters’ concerns to the authorities and work with the government to safeguard exporters’ interests.”
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... hlist-move
Baht policy unchanged as exporters are urged to monitor volatility
January 30, 2026
The Bank of Thailand says it remains confident in its ability to manage baht volatility against the US dollar after Thailand was added to a US Treasury watchlist for currency practices.
Chayawadee Chai-anant, assistant governor for corporate relations at the central bank, said on Friday that Thailand’s inclusion on the new foreign exchange watchlist would not affect its management of the baht.
She said the central bank typically manages baht volatility against the US dollar in both directions and does not pursue any objective of currency manipulation.
The recent designation was based mainly on Thailand’s trade and current account surpluses with the US, Ms Chayawadee said.
Thailand holds a current account surplus of roughly $17.7 billion, equivalent to around 3% of GDP.
“We have continued to report to and hold discussions with the US Treasury, and Thailand is unlikely to be designated a currency manipulator under the US criteria,” she said.
Nations on the monitoring list “warrant closer scrutiny”, noted the US Treasury, citing the growth of Thailand’s global current account surplus and its bilateral trade surplus with the US.
A Ministry of Finance source who requested anonymity said the central bank is likely to face greater difficulty in its operations because it is under increased pressure to limit currency intervention.
As a result, the baht is more likely to appreciate than peer currencies, as Thailand is required to demonstrate monthly transparency reporting in line with requests from the US.
The baht has moved in a relatively tight range against the dollar since the start of this year, and was trading on Friday at around 31.35 to the dollar, compared with 30.73 at the start of the week.
Exporters are advised to be cautious about baht volatility, the source noted.
Sectors recording a sharp surge in exports are likely to come under closer scrutiny, particularly electronic components and computers benefiting from the AI trend, as well as processed foods and canned fruit, which have already begun to be affected by tariff measures.
Placement on the list could be used as a bargaining tool in trade negotiations to pressure Thailand to open its markets further to US products in the future, the source added.
‘Warning bell’
Dhanakorn Kasetrsuwan, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC), said the US decision is unlikely to have an immediate impact on Thai exports as the list includes various countries.
He said inclusion on the list should be viewed as a policy “warning bell” rather than a structural threat, as it mainly affects market sentiment and exchange rate movements.
Exporters should strengthen their foreign exchange risk management during this period, Mr Dhanakorn said.
The TNSC reiterated that Thailand’s exchange rate policy is determined by market mechanisms and is not intended to create unfair trade advantages.
The council said it supports government agencies in communicating accurate information to US authorities and will work closely with relevant agencies to monitor developments and assess potential impacts on exporters across sectors.
The TNSC will also provide guidance on risk management strategies to help maintain Thailand’s competitiveness in the global market, he said.
“This is a cautionary signal that requires professional handling,” said Mr Dhanakorn.
“The council will convey exporters’ concerns to the authorities and work with the government to safeguard exporters’ interests.”
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... hlist-move