The strong baht - What are your opinions?

[Dodger]

I know I've mentioned this before - but in preparation for retirement I used exchange rate historical data (THB/USD) to plan my budget.

I saw that the historical range between the baht and USD fluctuated between 29.7 to 35.7 depending on which way the wind was blowing. This range of variation has remained constant now for the last 15 years. (see attached exchange rate history).

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/EXTHUS

It's for this reason that I'm never the least bit concerned about this variation for the mere fact that, by its very nature, it will always fluctuate. Right now we're at the low end on the range - but still within normal variation levels.

I smile when the baht is weak against my dollar, but when it's not it's no big deal.

As a side-note: My guess is that the USD will rebound in November when the Democrats take back the House and Trump gets knocked down to his knees. Maybe then the baht will lose some of its strength and get back to +32. At least that's what I'm hoping for.

[Jun]

It's for this reason that I'm never the least bit concerned about this variation for the mere fact that, by its very nature, it will always fluctuate. Right now we're at the low end on the range - but still within normal variation levels.

Your "Normal variation" is a backward looking indicator. The trouble is, the world has changed. The US is piling up debt at an alarming pace. Your president seems to have similar views on interest rates to President Erdogan. etc etc etc.

As a side-note: My guess is that the USD will rebound in November when the Democrats take back the House and Trump gets knocked down to his knees. Maybe then the baht will lose some of its strength and get back to +32. At least that's what I'm hoping for.

When he is threatening to annex the territory of a NATO member, I hope for an even faster resolution. Not necessarily in good taste, but he's no longer going to get much sympathy from me.

[Dodger]

Your "Normal variation" is a backward looking indicator. The trouble is, the world has changed.

That's a very good point, thus the reason why I repeat this analysis about once per year. The average, range, and standard deviation in exchange rate variation (THB/USD) have remained remarkably constant which is amazing considering the geo-political nightmare the world is embedded in right now.

With the modern world being consumed by debt; inflationary economic conditions everywhere; MAJOR changes occurring in global supply-chains; and the constant threat of more wars, foreign exchange rates will almost certainly become more erratic due to the effects of ABNORMAL VARIATION caused by these types of events - so trying to predict the future will become even more challenging. All we can do is hope for the best and manage our finances accordingly considering this risk.

P.S. The majority of SANE Americans don't consider Trump as being their President...and I'm one of them.

[Gaybutton]

The majority of SANE Americans don't consider Trump as being their President.

You want insanity? You want to see the dollar crash against the baht? How's this . . . I've seen reports that a growing number of Americans want Trump to find a way to circumvent the Constitution and become president a third time. George Wallace did it by having his wife run for governor of Alabama. Don't be surprised if Trump is trying to find a way. I'd be surprised if he isn't.



Remind you of anyone?

[Jun]

Remind you of anyone?

Well, Putin initially had a two term limit. Now he's going to be there for life.

[Jun]

Also Xi got a 2 term limit overturned, Some high profile examples for Trump to follow?

[Gaybutton]

Some high profile examples for Trump to follow?

Idi Amin . . .