How Venezuala attack is expected to affect Thailand

[Gaybutton]

American invasion likely to shape crude prices, baht

Thailand urged to move nimbly

by Wichit Chantanusornsiri

January 6, 2026

The US invasion of Venezuela is likely to send global oil prices lower and weaken the baht, according to a researcher, while managing economic and diplomatic policy amid geopolitical entanglements could become more complicated.

Nonarit Bisonyabut, a research fellow at Thailand Development Research Institute, said the US invasion of Venezuela is akin to reviving the Monroe Doctrine, dividing the world into three spheres of influence. Zone 1 is the Americas, from Canada down to South America, while Zone 2 is Europe and Zone 3 consists of Asia.

He said the US move in Venezuela reflects the idea that, within the Americas, the US should be the governing power and the main beneficiary. China's investments in Latin America have become a risk factor for the US, said Mr Nonarit.

In the short term, he said this may cause some volatility in global oil prices, but there is no significant risk of prices rising sharply as global oil supply this year is expected to exceed demand.

Furthermore, the US intervention in Venezuela reflects its intention to maintain global leadership, said Mr Nonarit. As a result, the US dollar is unlikely to weaken or be challenged as it was previously.

"Any country that dares to challenge US dominance must be cautious, as the US may intervene or take action. Therefore, the baht is unlikely to strengthen as before because if the US dollar retains its value, the baht will not appreciate," he said.

According to Mr Nonarit, the US involvement in Venezuela means it has less time to involve itself in other regions of the world. This may result in a window of opportunity for Thailand to address unresolved issues, such as the Thai-Cambodian border dispute and negotiations on a tariff deal with the US, he said.

Aat Pisanwanich, an international economics academic, said the crisis in Venezuela may affect global oil prices and global geopolitical tensions.

Regarding oil prices, he said two scenarios are possible. In the short term, within six months to one year after US oil companies take over management of Venezuela's oil sector, the country's production could increase by 100,000-200,000 barrels per day from a current level of 900,000 barrels per day, with exports of 600,000 barrels daily.

This shift would cause both upward and downward fluctuations in global oil prices, said Mr Aat.

However, after a year global oil prices are likely to trend downward, especially as Opec is already producing more oil than the global market requires, he said.

In geopolitical terms, the invasion of Venezuela will certainly displease China, as China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec Group have invested in Venezuela. China buys up to 70% of Venezuela's oil exports.

This issue may spark a new round of trade conflict between China and the US, said Mr Aat.

Thailand must consider its position, and he said Thailand's long-standing policy of neutrality is appropriate, but the country needs to manage risk more carefully, such as diversifying energy sources beyond the Middle East, securing safer transport routes and expanding export markets.

Geopolitical tensions may affect these areas, making economic and diplomatic policymaking more challenging, said Mr Aat.

"We must manage our national policy so the US does not view us as an opponent, especially on issues the US prioritises such as buying oil from countries hostile to them," he said.

"We must prepare alternative oil sources from countries that are not US adversaries, such as African nations."

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... rices-baht

[Jun]

The first question is how will the attack affect Venezuela?

So far, Maduro's vice President has moved up to the top job and she isn't showing much sign of conceding control.