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The Baht's Troubling Rise
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Gaybutton
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Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
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Gaybutton
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Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Tourists walk away from exchange booths as strong baht dampens Pattaya’s appeal
By Pattaya Mail
November 6, 2025
At a currency booth along Beach Road this week, a pair of European tourists stood counting notes, frowning before walking away — a scene that has become increasingly common. For many long-term visitors and holidaymakers alike, Thailand is simply no longer the “cheap paradise” it once was.
The latest report from SCB Financial Markets (SCB FM) adds weight to the sentiment. The bank expects the baht to strengthen further by year-end, hovering between 31.70–32.20 baht per US dollar, even as the Bank of Thailand is likely to cut interest rates again in December.
While that might sound like good news for Thailand’s macroeconomic stability, it’s unwelcome news for anyone arriving with foreign cash. A stronger baht means every euro, pound, or dollar buys less — making hotel stays, meals, and souvenirs noticeably pricier.
“It’s not the smiles or beaches anymore — it’s the exchange rate that decides whether I stay or go,” said one long-time visitor from the UK, who has been coming to Pattaya since the early 2000s. “Everything feels 20–30% more expensive than before COVID. And yet, the service hasn’t improved.”
The baht’s direction has been influenced by global factors — from gold price volatility to investor sentiment toward Asian currencies. SCB FM noted that while the baht briefly weakened earlier this quarter due to profit-taking in gold, it has since regained strength on the back of better-than-expected Thai export figures and optimism in regional trade.
However, for local businesses in Pattaya, that’s small comfort. Street vendors and smaller hotels say they are seeing tourists spend less — opting for shorter stays or cheaper dining options.
“They still come, but they don’t spend like before,” said a souvenir seller on Second Road. “Europeans now ask the price first — and sometimes just take a photo instead of buying.”
For now, Thailand’s strong currency reflects resilience amid global uncertainty. But in tourist towns like Pattaya, that strength may be too much of a good thing. As one café owner put it:
“When the baht gets stronger, our wallets get weaker.”
https://www.pattayamail.com/news/touris ... eal-525242
By Pattaya Mail
November 6, 2025
At a currency booth along Beach Road this week, a pair of European tourists stood counting notes, frowning before walking away — a scene that has become increasingly common. For many long-term visitors and holidaymakers alike, Thailand is simply no longer the “cheap paradise” it once was.
The latest report from SCB Financial Markets (SCB FM) adds weight to the sentiment. The bank expects the baht to strengthen further by year-end, hovering between 31.70–32.20 baht per US dollar, even as the Bank of Thailand is likely to cut interest rates again in December.
While that might sound like good news for Thailand’s macroeconomic stability, it’s unwelcome news for anyone arriving with foreign cash. A stronger baht means every euro, pound, or dollar buys less — making hotel stays, meals, and souvenirs noticeably pricier.
“It’s not the smiles or beaches anymore — it’s the exchange rate that decides whether I stay or go,” said one long-time visitor from the UK, who has been coming to Pattaya since the early 2000s. “Everything feels 20–30% more expensive than before COVID. And yet, the service hasn’t improved.”
The baht’s direction has been influenced by global factors — from gold price volatility to investor sentiment toward Asian currencies. SCB FM noted that while the baht briefly weakened earlier this quarter due to profit-taking in gold, it has since regained strength on the back of better-than-expected Thai export figures and optimism in regional trade.
However, for local businesses in Pattaya, that’s small comfort. Street vendors and smaller hotels say they are seeing tourists spend less — opting for shorter stays or cheaper dining options.
“They still come, but they don’t spend like before,” said a souvenir seller on Second Road. “Europeans now ask the price first — and sometimes just take a photo instead of buying.”
For now, Thailand’s strong currency reflects resilience amid global uncertainty. But in tourist towns like Pattaya, that strength may be too much of a good thing. As one café owner put it:
“When the baht gets stronger, our wallets get weaker.”
https://www.pattayamail.com/news/touris ... eal-525242
Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Ring any bells?
This weak exchange rate only compounds the challenges the working boys and the gay businesses have been confronted with.
Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Remember:
This time they're talking about European tourists struggling and then again quote a USD exchange rate!!!! What is the relevance of that ?
The Euro has traded between 33 & 40 baht for the last decade. It's currently 37, which is slightly above the mean. So that is not weak. Just quoting facts,
The NOK is in the higher end of it's 10 year range. We don't even need to check the CHF.
The GBP has traded within a range since the Brexit vote & is in the middle of that range.
The other tourist quote refers to inflation, complete with some exaggeration. I don't see anything up 30% since pre-covid. Well, the exception is fares in Premium Economy or Business. Flying that far forward is an option.
In fact, inflation in Thailand seems to be well matched by European salary increases or stock market returns.
The USD is weak, but on the other hand, there is some sort of stock market bubble there. So some Americans must have the money too.
2 Journalists can always find some businesses where the owner will moan. All they have to do is walk past the businesses with visible customers and find one with none.
3 Long holidays in Pattaya are very affordable. My hotel is of good quality and the monthly rate is ridiculously low. Where available, I can eat Thai veggie food for 40~70 baht.
Undoubtedly board members would like to see a weaker baht. Including myself.
However, just because we would like the exchange rate to be weaker, don't make the mistake of assuming the baht is too strong & quoting every piece of poorly researched bullshit ie Don't confuse what we would like with what is true. [Ray Dalio says something similar]
Just because we would like a weaker baht, it does not mean it is too strong. In fact at current exchange rates, Thailand still runs a neutral to positive balance of trade, whilst some of our countries have horrific trade deficits.
Also, with all the debt being piled on by certain western countries, in the long term, it may get FAR worse.
This time they're talking about European tourists struggling and then again quote a USD exchange rate!!!! What is the relevance of that ?
The Euro has traded between 33 & 40 baht for the last decade. It's currently 37, which is slightly above the mean. So that is not weak. Just quoting facts,
The NOK is in the higher end of it's 10 year range. We don't even need to check the CHF.
The GBP has traded within a range since the Brexit vote & is in the middle of that range.
The other tourist quote refers to inflation, complete with some exaggeration. I don't see anything up 30% since pre-covid. Well, the exception is fares in Premium Economy or Business. Flying that far forward is an option.
In fact, inflation in Thailand seems to be well matched by European salary increases or stock market returns.
The USD is weak, but on the other hand, there is some sort of stock market bubble there. So some Americans must have the money too.
2 Journalists can always find some businesses where the owner will moan. All they have to do is walk past the businesses with visible customers and find one with none.
3 Long holidays in Pattaya are very affordable. My hotel is of good quality and the monthly rate is ridiculously low. Where available, I can eat Thai veggie food for 40~70 baht.
Undoubtedly board members would like to see a weaker baht. Including myself.
However, just because we would like the exchange rate to be weaker, don't make the mistake of assuming the baht is too strong & quoting every piece of poorly researched bullshit ie Don't confuse what we would like with what is true. [Ray Dalio says something similar]
Just because we would like a weaker baht, it does not mean it is too strong. In fact at current exchange rates, Thailand still runs a neutral to positive balance of trade, whilst some of our countries have horrific trade deficits.
Also, with all the debt being piled on by certain western countries, in the long term, it may get FAR worse.
Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Most competent Journalists are fact-finders by nature who rely very heavily on having effective networking skills, with most of the information they gather coming from within their expansive network - versus - just walking down sidewalks looking into doorways.
The problem in Thailand is that many, if not most of the farang who write newspaper articles, are not professionally trained journalists, thus the reason I tend to rely more on information I obtain from other reliable sources, including my own personal network.
Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Even that only works if they interpret the data properly.
The trouble is, everyone looks at it differently.
If someone has a pension that was barely adequate in the first place or hasn't increased with inflation, they would notice even the smallest exchange rate move & they would be complaining about it.
On the other hand, if their stock portfolio was up 50% in the last 2 years, they probably wouldn't care about exchange rate movements. [S&P up ~47% in that time]
Finally, there seems to be a tendency for people to only consider their own currency. The USD has been relatively weak. This should not be confused with a strong baht, although people seem determined to do just that.
As I already pointed out, currencies like the Euro are in the upper half of the 10 year range against the baht. Far more tourists come to Thailand from the Eurozone than the US.
No matter what people in your personal network may think, the exchange rate is not hurting the purchasing power of Eurozone visitors. Other factors may be, such as higher energy costs at home, due to crazy energy policies. Although, turning down the heating and flying to Thailand is one solution to that.
Even professionally trained journalists are dying out. Physical newspapers don't sell in the internet age. They often can't charge for the web version of their newspaper, so they have to keep firing staff to make ends meet.
The few staff left rush out hasty articles about the strong baht, without even checking if it is strong against more than one currency.
Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Your points are well taken.
I relied heavily on data analysis during my career, but also had to learn how to compensate for sometimes having a lack of data, or inaccurate data, by using other tools for fact-finding - with common sense being just one of those tools.
At the risk of sounding like I'm boasting (which is not my intent), I used to teach Advanced Fact-Finding Techniques while representing a very prestigious London based Company.. After 45 years of applying these techniques myself during management system assessments I performed spanning 6 countries (including Thailand), I think it's safe to say that I'm somewhat of an expert on the subject.
As far as the topic at hand...there's too much abnormal variation influencing foreign exchange rates for anyone to be able to predict with a high level of certainty what is going to happen in the future IMHO. With Global Trade Tariffs, Wars, and major shifts in Global Supply-Chains contributing the most to the abnormal variation I'm talking about.
The way I plan my budget is by using an average exchange rate of 32 THB/USD, with a range of +/- 3 THB. I calculated this 7 years ago using 40 years of historical data to determine the statistical standard deviation I needed. It's held this range ever since.
Ironically, most of the abnormal variation I described is being caused by one very abnormal person. Three guesses who that is?
Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Like many board members, I've met quite a few experts, but I don't recall any declaring themselves as an expert.
They usually are more modest and allow others to judge that expertise.
On the topic of exchange rates.
1 I prefer to remind myself how little we all know and I see it as a matter for continual learning, as the future is unlikely to resemble the last 40 years. Certain countries have too much debt for that.
2 Even looking in the rear view mirror, it is best to check facts. The USD has been all the way up to 38 in the last decade.
3 I'm not sure what timescale you plan for, but if that is another 2~3 decades, I think relying on an exchange rate range of 29~35 is extremely risky. You may be OK, but I wouldn't choose to do it.
There are G7 currency pairs where the highest exchange rate this century is double the lowest.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2556/pound- ... ical-chart
They usually are more modest and allow others to judge that expertise.
On the topic of exchange rates.
1 I prefer to remind myself how little we all know and I see it as a matter for continual learning, as the future is unlikely to resemble the last 40 years. Certain countries have too much debt for that.
2 Even looking in the rear view mirror, it is best to check facts. The USD has been all the way up to 38 in the last decade.
3 I'm not sure what timescale you plan for, but if that is another 2~3 decades, I think relying on an exchange rate range of 29~35 is extremely risky. You may be OK, but I wouldn't choose to do it.
There are G7 currency pairs where the highest exchange rate this century is double the lowest.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2556/pound- ... ical-chart
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Gaybutton
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Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Fine with me. In my judgment Dodger has the expertise he says he does and maybe is even more expert than he is saying.
He is not bragging. He is responding - and is perfectly legitimate in making it clear what qualifies him, whether others claim expertise in anything or not. Based on all these posts he has very good reason to state his qualifications. I'm glad he did and I think he ought to be congratulated, not criticized for it.
You have made it clear that you don't trust the Thai news media. In Dodger I think we have someone whose judgment and qualifications can be trusted. I certainly do, especially now that I know what qualifies him.
Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
It's more a matter of "trust & verify", as Ronald Reagan used to say. A phrase apparently borrowed from the Russians.
Too many journalists don't verify, so rather than assume everything they write is true, we learn more if firstly checking for the supporting evidence.
For example, one article posted in the last couple of days was implying European tourists cannot afford Thailand due to the strong baht.
The data does not support that at all, since the Euro is in the upper half of the 10 year range v the baht. I can't see any Western European currency that is particularly weak against the baht.
Does anyone here really trust such articles ? Particularly from certain publications that mix fact & fiction. If so, WHY trust them?