Where Are The Western Tourists?

[Gaybutton]

Where's the data to support that hypothesis?

I get mine from the news articles, which I have no reason to doubt or think reporters are just making it up or even exaggerating. Where do you get yours?

[Jun]

I get mine from the news articles, which I have no reason to doubt or think reporters are just making it up or even exaggerating. Where do you get yours?

Where I have quoted data, it is either from reputable newspapers that quote data sources or from the Wikipedia page with Thai tourist numbers.

I like to see data. If some journalist claims to have spoken to a couple of businesses who are moaning about poor trade, I regard that as almost worthless information. Some businesses will always moan. Often they type of business that is not competitive.

The average journalist is utterly useless at interpreting data.

So far, I haven't seen any reliable evidence that western tourist spending in Thailand is decreasing.
Of course, there may be some who have miscalculated their long term spending power & have to cut back. There will be others who find their spending power increasing.

[Gaybutton]

Where I have quoted data, it is either from reputable newspapers that quote data sources

I'll have to concede on that point. Thai newspapers only rarely include specifically where their information is coming from. However, that doesn't necessarily mean they're getting it wrong. I usually prefer to believe what I see with my own eyes. But I really haven't seen anything that proves to me this whole thing about western tourists one way or the other.

One thing I do see with my own eyes is at immigration there are just as many western people as ever.

[Jun]

Thai newspapers only rarely include specifically where their information is coming from. However, that doesn't necessarily mean they're getting it wrong. I usually prefer to believe what I see with my own eyes. But I really haven't seen anything that proves to me this whole thing about western tourists one way or the other.

One thing I do see with my own eyes is at immigration there are just as many western people as ever.

I agree on the newspapers, Unless they quote a reliable source with sufficient good quality data, we don't know whether they get it right or wrong.
I regard it as "unproven".

I also like to compare with what I see with my own eyes, The trouble is, that could just be a case of tourists moving from one business to another.

There are a lot of westerners in Jomtien & I don't just mean the complex. Soi Bukhao is also popular with western visitors.

I'm not that convinced about the direction of travel for the gay scene. The total number of gay bars is probably only slightly down on the all time high. They just relocated to Jomtien. Also, we know the punters can easily find boys without going anywhere near a bar.
All the boys have phones, so we can either just message a known boy on Line or find a new one on a phone app. That ought to take some trade from bars, but again, we don't know how much.
So there's a lot of guesswork with this topic.

[Dodger]

It would be nice if one could rely on data to form opinions about the business climate in Pattaya, or for that fact anywhere in Thailand, but unfortunately the data that's made available in Thailand's Press is often skewed, with questionable accuracy and almost always lacking factual substance.

Question: Are businesses in Pattaya doing well right now?

Answer (AI):

No, businesses in Pattaya are struggling currently significantly, facing a difficult low season with declining tourist numbers, increased operating costs, a global economic slowdown impacting spending habits, and increased competition from new post-pandemic businesses. While some new investments, particularly in property from Indian buyers, offer a positive outlook, the immediate reality for many service-based and nightlife businesses is a harsh decline in revenue and heightened economic strain .

Key Challenges:
Sluggish Tourist Numbers: The usual low season (May to October) is proving particularly harsh, with fewer tourists, especially Western visitors, opting for cheaper destinations.
Rising Costs: Businesses are facing increasing costs for ingredients and supplies, squeezing already tight profit margins.
New Competition: Many new businesses, launched after the pandemic, are trying to establish themselves, adding to market saturation.
Economic Climate: A global economic downturn means potential tourists are spending less, further impacting businesses relevant on tourist income.

Signs of Distress:
Struggling Businesses: Restaurants, bars, and service providers are finding it hard to stay afloat.
Potential Closures: There are concerns about businesses, particularly smaller, family-run establishments, facing permanent or temporary closure.
Quiet Low Season: The current low season is described as one of the quietest ever experienced by some businesses
____________________________________________________________________________________
END OF AI

Everything printed above is directly in-line with what I've been seeing with my own eyes and hearing from the streets, other expats, bar patrons (gay & str8), etc. in Pattaya.

If money was still circulating on the gay scenes the way it was before this major economic decline the Thai boys WOULD NOT HAVE LEFT THE SCENE. When I ask boys who have left the scene why they left they almost always give me the same two reasons; 1) not too many customers like before, 2) farang too cheap now - not spend money like before. Plain and simple.

Thai boys I know who left the shimmering lights of Pattaya because of lack of income can often be seen working in motorbike repair shops, selling pork balls at the night market, and/or laboring in the farm fields up in their rural homes.

Gay visitors to Pattaya now have the option of hooking up with immigrant boys or using the apps to find a date. The days of the gorgeous Thai Dream Boys flashing their eyes for the pleasure of your company are gradually coming to an end. Sad, but true.

No Money - No Honey!

[Jun]

When I used AI with similar questions, it was fairly clear they were sourcing information from The Pattaya Mail and similar publications. So that's not reliable information.

As for boys on the scene:
1 The Thai birth rate is also far lower than it used to be.
The 1980 birth rate was 3.29
The 2005 birth rate was 1.63
There are fewer lads of working age these days. The population pyramid shows the number of 20 year old lads is about 75% of the number of 45 year olds.
So birth rate accounts for a drop of at least 25% in the available Thai boys in the last 25 years.

2 Of the remaining 75%, perhaps about 15% are obese, so let's say we're down to about 64% of the year 2000 number of lads to select from (approximation). Of course, the obese lads could show up in Pattaya, but they're rarely going to be hired ahead of all the slim immigrant boys.

3 Finally, the Thai economy has been growing, so they have more opportunities elsewhere. The percentage desperate enough to go & work in Pattaya must be lower. Possibly quite a lot lower.


Fortunately, we have a perfectly good supply of lads from Laos & Cambodia. I'm happy with that.

Also, there have always been boys who don't last on the scene.
Some still do well in their late 20s & beyond.
Others last less than a month.

[Dodger]

When I used AI with similar questions, it was fairly clear they were sourcing information from The Pattaya Mail and similar publications. So that's not reliable information.

I found myself in total agreement with the information AI provided.

You didn't disagree with any of the points made in the AI response to this question yourself so I'm wondering what it is that you're disagreeing with...

We already know what the "Causes" are.

Here's how this "Effects" the gay scene:

Gay venues and working boys (Thai or immigrants) aern't earning as much money as in the past. Why? not enough customers...customers not spending as much money at the bars or tipping as well (Cheap Charley's), and more and more customers using the apps and not going to the bars at all.

Like I said before...No Money - No Honey!

This really isn't rocket science.

[Jun]

You didn't disagree with any of the points made in the AI response to this question yourself so I'm wondering what it is that you're disagreeing with...

The AI result provides no data to back up the claims. How could they when scraping information from sources like the Pattaya Mail ?

The only part of it I definitely agree with is businesses facing competition from new businesses & that's how capitalism should work. If anything, the Thai regulators should have ensured more competition in large businesses, rather than allowing mergers.

We know global tourism has been doing fine.
We know inbound western tourist numbers to Thailand are only slightly down on peak numbers, backed by data. We know outbound tourist spending from some western countries is at or near peak levels.

They may or may not be going to Pattaya, but given the obvious tendency of certain parts of the city to increase trade at the expense of other parts, any subjective assessment is likely to be inaccurate.
You can easily find deserted shopping centres, but there are newer ones that are overcrowded.
Bars close in some parts of town and whole areas of bars open in another part of town. It's happening on the straight scene as well. If you walk around enough of the city, you can't miss all the new businesses. Sometimes whole streets of them.

Also, trade moves online.
A couple of board members are fond of having their food delivered by grab. Maybe not you or I, but it happens.
Much shopping has gone on line in various parts of the world. Thailand is no exception. Your average Lao or Cambodian bar boy will have clothes and other items purchased on line. Tourists shop on line and have things delivered to the hotel. Just check the parcels in reception for evidence.
A significant percentage of dating has moved on line, some at the expense of the bars.

If I wrote that in a few newspapers, it would probably appear in your AI result not long afterwards.

[Jun]

The most important part - did you get the visa?

Not yet. The documents were approved probably about 2 weeks ago. It's now pending approval. Obviously they're not that desperate for tourists.

Or perhaps if they sit enough applications, some customers might cave in & arrange for agencies to expedite the process. ฿฿฿฿฿฿฿

[Gaybutton]

That doesn't necessarily mean fewer tourists are going to Pattaya. For all I know maybe even more tourists are going to Pattaya this year. The numbers in the report apply overall in Thailand, but doesn't say where the tourists that do come are going.
______________________________________________________

Thailand foreign tourist arrivals down 7.22% y/y so far this year

November 4, 2025

Foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand from Jan 1 to Nov 2 fell 7.22% from the same period a year earlier, the Tourism and Sports Ministry reported on Tuesday.

There were 26.89 million foreign visitors over the period, the ministry said in a statement. Malaysia was the largest source market with 3.88 million visitors, followed by China with 3.8 million.

Last week, the Ministry of Finance cut its forecast for foreign tourist arrivals this year to 33.5 million from the previous 34.5 million. Thailand saw a record of nearly 40 million visitors in 2019, before the coronavirus (Covid) pandemic.

Last week, the Association of Thai Travel Agents (Atta) urged the government to offer more flight promotions, while the Thailand Convention and Exhibition Bureau (TCEB) planned to request "Quick Win" stimulus measures such as tax incentives for organisers of meetings, incentives, conventions and exhibitions (Mice) events.

In addition, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has said Chinese President Xi Jinping was pleased with Thailand’s stance against legalising casinos, and the Chinese government will encourage more Chinese tourists to visit the country.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... ar-in-2025