Foreign tourists’ wallets shrink as baht falls below 32 to US Dollar
By Pattaya Mail
September 9, 2025
For decades, the allure of Pattaya for foreign tourists and long-term visitors has rested not only on sun, sand, and nightlife, but on affordability. Yet as the baht pushes below the symbolic 32-to-the-dollar level, the city’s tourism economy is beginning to feel the squeeze of a stronger Thai currency.
Krungthai Global Markets this week projected the baht to trade in a 31.65–32.45 per dollar range, with a 24-hour band of 32.00–32.20 after opening Monday (8 Sept) at 32.10, slightly firmer than last week’s close at 32.18. The move reflects a weakening U.S. dollar, after poor American jobs data fueled expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
On paper, a stronger baht may signal resilience. But in Pattaya, every notch stronger translates into weaker wallets. Bars, restaurants, guesthouses, and street vendors thrive on foreign spending power — and when the dollar loses ground, so does the city’s nightlife economy.
“Five years ago, my pension gave me nearly 40 baht to the dollar,” says a 68-year-old long-term visitor from the U.K. “Now I’m getting barely 32. The cost of beer, rent, and food hasn’t gone down – only my lifestyle has.”
Short-stay tourists are feeling it, too. A family from Australia may still book a beach hotel, but their discretionary spend on extras — jet skis, seafood dinners, cabaret shows — shrinks when the exchange rate no longer offers a bargain. Younger travelers compare Thailand against Vietnam or the Philippines, where weaker currencies make their money go further.
Local operators admit that the nightlife economy, once fueled by cheap thrills for foreign men, is visibly under strain. Rising rents, higher food prices, and dual pricing policies already irritate visitors. A baht under 32 per dollar removes what little cushion was left. “It’s not the women or their smiles anymore,” one long-term resident quipped. “It’s the exchange rate that decides whether I stay or go.”
Authorities in Bangkok may trumpet record arrival numbers, but raw arrivals don’t equal prosperity if per-capita spending collapses. Pattaya may fill its hotels this high season, but a strong baht risks hollowing out the city’s cash economy.
Krungthai has noted the baht still faces Two-Way risk, with U.S. inflation data and political uncertainties in France, Japan, and Thailand all in play. Yet for Pattaya, the damage is already visible: a city where the exchange rate, not the neon lights, determines the nightlife.
The question is whether policymakers understand the local reality: tourism thrives not just on arrivals, but on value. If Thailand becomes the “expensive option” in Southeast Asia, Pattaya’s once-magnetic pull could fade into nostalgia — another casualty of an overvalued currency and a government unwilling to confront it.
https://www.pattayamail.com/travel/fore ... dsjMx641nw
Dollar Falls Below 32 Baht
Re: Dollar Falls Below 32 Baht
Tiny dip...still within normal variation levels based on the past 12 month history.
It sure would be nice to see +35 again.
It sure would be nice to see +35 again.
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Gaybutton
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Re: Dollar Falls Below 32 Baht
VERY +35 please . . .
Those retiring in Thailand need to be sure they are financially prepared for these kinds of fluctuations. I find where the baht is going to be unpredictable. Even when the "experts" make their predictions, it almost never happens the way they predict.
For the American dollar, within recent years I've seen it as high as 36 baht to the dollar and as low as 28 to the dollar.
Many years ago when most Asian currency crashed, for 2 weeks the rate hit 55 baht to the dollar. That was before I lived here. Naturally it hit that rate just after I had returned to the USA.
Re: Dollar Falls Below 32 Baht
Exactly. That's all we need to know about exchange rate predictions.
Oddly, we see much more discussion about useless exchange rate predictions than how to prepare for the inevitable & unpredictable currency fluctuations.
Only 2.8% of tourists in Thailand are from the US.Pattaya Mail wrote: ↑Thu Sep 11, 2025 7:31 amForeign tourists’ wallets shrink as baht falls below 32 to US Dollar
Re: Dollar Falls Below 32 Baht
Some of the major currencies ( e. g. Yuan) strongly correlate with dollar. So , majority of visitors suffer. Regrettably, weakening of the dollar is a deliberate Trump policy..
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Undaunted
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Re: Dollar Falls Below 32 Baht
Actually Trump stated early on that he wanted a strong dollar and threatened Bricks countries if the dollar was negatively effected however, his insistence and lower interest rates has weakened the dollar as the fed will be lowering rates .25% and unexpectedly a bad jobs report hasn’t helped either.
"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"
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Gaybutton
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Re: Dollar Falls Below 32 Baht
Everything is relative. I remember when the US dollar exchange rate started dropping from the 40s. I was eating dinner with Geezer when it dropped to 38 baht to the dollar. He was very upset and I wasn't thrilled either. But now, most of us would be delighted to see a 38 baht to the US dollar rate.
I also remember, many years ago, my boss and I were walking to our cars when the price of gasoline went up to 88 cents per gallon. He said "I don't know how we can live with this." I replied "What worries me is when a dollar per gallon will look good". Today a dollar per gallon would look great.
I just hope things don't get to a point where 31-32 baht per US dollar will also look great. Unfortunately we have no control over exchange rates, so we have to live with whatever the rate is.
One thing makes me optimistic about better exchange rates is the news has been saying the BoT is very concerned about the baht being so strong and it is hurting Thailand. They are going to be trying to do something to weaken the baht. I don't know what, but it would certainly be nice to see better exchange rates. My retirement benefit went up by 3% in August, but despite that I am actually receiving less than last year because of the exchange rates.
___________________________________________
Gold and baht causing headaches for central bank
Outgoing governor says discrepancies in economic data reflect current challenge
by Somruedi Banchongduang
September 16, 2025
The increase in errors and omissions in Thailand’s balance of payments may be linked to gold trading and the baht’s appreciation against the US dollar, says the head of the Bank of Thailand.
According to Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, the central bank has consulted with various parties, including gold traders, on additional measures for managing the baht more effectively. It has proposed several approaches, including tax measures and promoting gold trading in US dollars.
However, more discussions are needed to finalise measures to curb baht volatility, he said. While the recent appreciation of the baht has largely stemmed from the dollar’s weakness, the Thai currency — up more than 7% this year — has strengthened more than most of its peers against the greenback, said Mr Sethaput.
Gold trading has been another key factor influencing exchange rate movements, with the correlation between gold prices and the baht about 0.7, higher than for other regional currencies, he said.
Mr Sethaput said errors and omissions in the balance of payments, partly related to gold trading or exports, may also affect the baht’s movements.
According to central bank data, Thailand’s balance of payments in 2024 was $12.4 billion, but errors and omissions were even higher at $15.2 billion, reflecting unusual discrepancies. He stressed the need for continued monitoring as there is insufficient data to confirm a direct link between gold trading and foreign exchange flows.
“It should be the role of government agencies to track these flows, including gold exports to Cambodia, and determine whether they are connected to grey money or cryptocurrency, as the public suspects,” said Mr Sethaput.
Several shocks
Looking back on his five-year term as governor, Mr Sethaput, who will step down at the end of September, noted that the Thai economy has faced multiple shocks, beginning with the Covid-19 pandemic and followed by the Russia-Ukraine war.
In response, the central bank pursued an accommodative monetary policy, cutting its policy rate to a record low of 0.5% in May 2022 to support the economy. The bank later adjusted rates in line with the post-pandemic recovery.
However, Thailand’s recovery has lagged behind regional peers due to structural challenges, including declining productivity, a shrinking workforce, weaker foreign direct investment, reduced competitiveness, and an ageing society.
“The Thai economy required 12 quarters to recover from the pandemic, compared with 17 quarters after the 1997 financial crisis, and still later than regional peers,” said Mr Sethaput.
Thailand’s post-pandemic GDP growth has also been weaker than those of neighbouring countries. From 2021 to 2024, Thailand’s GDP expanded by an average of 2.2% annually, compared with 3.7% during the pre-pandemic period between 1992 and 2019.
In addition, Thailand has been hit by new shocks such as the US tariff policy, which could weigh on long-term growth prospects. Alongside structural weaknesses, the economy remains vulnerable due to persistently high household debt levels.
Limited policy space
According to Mr Sethaput, Thailand’s fiscal risks have been rising as government revenues fall short of spending needs. Between fiscal years 2019 and 2024, government expenditure grew by an average of about 4% per year, while revenue increased by only 1.7%. This trend is expected to continue.
“With this scenario, Thailand faces a growing risk of a sovereign credit rating downgrade. Fiscal stability is therefore essential to maintain the country’s positive credit rating over the long term,” he said.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the policy rate four times between October 2024 and August 2025, bringing it down to 1.5%, mainly to support short-term economic growth and ease the financial burden on vulnerable groups. The central bank has pledged to maintain an accommodative stance while preserving policy space to address potential shocks.
“We have faced various shocks in recent years. We must maintain policy space to prepare for another shock, which I personally believe is quite possible,” Mr Sethaput added.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... ntral-bank
I also remember, many years ago, my boss and I were walking to our cars when the price of gasoline went up to 88 cents per gallon. He said "I don't know how we can live with this." I replied "What worries me is when a dollar per gallon will look good". Today a dollar per gallon would look great.
I just hope things don't get to a point where 31-32 baht per US dollar will also look great. Unfortunately we have no control over exchange rates, so we have to live with whatever the rate is.
One thing makes me optimistic about better exchange rates is the news has been saying the BoT is very concerned about the baht being so strong and it is hurting Thailand. They are going to be trying to do something to weaken the baht. I don't know what, but it would certainly be nice to see better exchange rates. My retirement benefit went up by 3% in August, but despite that I am actually receiving less than last year because of the exchange rates.
___________________________________________
Gold and baht causing headaches for central bank
Outgoing governor says discrepancies in economic data reflect current challenge
by Somruedi Banchongduang
September 16, 2025
The increase in errors and omissions in Thailand’s balance of payments may be linked to gold trading and the baht’s appreciation against the US dollar, says the head of the Bank of Thailand.
According to Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, the central bank has consulted with various parties, including gold traders, on additional measures for managing the baht more effectively. It has proposed several approaches, including tax measures and promoting gold trading in US dollars.
However, more discussions are needed to finalise measures to curb baht volatility, he said. While the recent appreciation of the baht has largely stemmed from the dollar’s weakness, the Thai currency — up more than 7% this year — has strengthened more than most of its peers against the greenback, said Mr Sethaput.
Gold trading has been another key factor influencing exchange rate movements, with the correlation between gold prices and the baht about 0.7, higher than for other regional currencies, he said.
Mr Sethaput said errors and omissions in the balance of payments, partly related to gold trading or exports, may also affect the baht’s movements.
According to central bank data, Thailand’s balance of payments in 2024 was $12.4 billion, but errors and omissions were even higher at $15.2 billion, reflecting unusual discrepancies. He stressed the need for continued monitoring as there is insufficient data to confirm a direct link between gold trading and foreign exchange flows.
“It should be the role of government agencies to track these flows, including gold exports to Cambodia, and determine whether they are connected to grey money or cryptocurrency, as the public suspects,” said Mr Sethaput.
Several shocks
Looking back on his five-year term as governor, Mr Sethaput, who will step down at the end of September, noted that the Thai economy has faced multiple shocks, beginning with the Covid-19 pandemic and followed by the Russia-Ukraine war.
In response, the central bank pursued an accommodative monetary policy, cutting its policy rate to a record low of 0.5% in May 2022 to support the economy. The bank later adjusted rates in line with the post-pandemic recovery.
However, Thailand’s recovery has lagged behind regional peers due to structural challenges, including declining productivity, a shrinking workforce, weaker foreign direct investment, reduced competitiveness, and an ageing society.
“The Thai economy required 12 quarters to recover from the pandemic, compared with 17 quarters after the 1997 financial crisis, and still later than regional peers,” said Mr Sethaput.
Thailand’s post-pandemic GDP growth has also been weaker than those of neighbouring countries. From 2021 to 2024, Thailand’s GDP expanded by an average of 2.2% annually, compared with 3.7% during the pre-pandemic period between 1992 and 2019.
In addition, Thailand has been hit by new shocks such as the US tariff policy, which could weigh on long-term growth prospects. Alongside structural weaknesses, the economy remains vulnerable due to persistently high household debt levels.
Limited policy space
According to Mr Sethaput, Thailand’s fiscal risks have been rising as government revenues fall short of spending needs. Between fiscal years 2019 and 2024, government expenditure grew by an average of about 4% per year, while revenue increased by only 1.7%. This trend is expected to continue.
“With this scenario, Thailand faces a growing risk of a sovereign credit rating downgrade. Fiscal stability is therefore essential to maintain the country’s positive credit rating over the long term,” he said.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the policy rate four times between October 2024 and August 2025, bringing it down to 1.5%, mainly to support short-term economic growth and ease the financial burden on vulnerable groups. The central bank has pledged to maintain an accommodative stance while preserving policy space to address potential shocks.
“We have faced various shocks in recent years. We must maintain policy space to prepare for another shock, which I personally believe is quite possible,” Mr Sethaput added.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... ntral-bank