Now that's more like it. An author who recognises the contribution of the weak dollar to this.Somruedi Banchongduang wrote: ↑Sat Sep 27, 2025 8:20 amBaht appreciation this year was attributed to a weak dollar, greater clarity in Thai politics and local gold trade.
The Baht's Troubling Rise
Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
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Gaybutton
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Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Alarm on strong baht
by Somruedi Banchongduang
September 30, 2025
The continued appreciation of the baht against the US dollar, if left unaddressed, could weaken Thailand's competitiveness in both tourism and exports relative to its regional peers, cautions SCB EIC, the research centre under Siam Commercial Bank (SCB).
Yunyong Thaicharoen, chief economist at EIC, said the baht's strength is inconsistent with Thailand's subdued economic fundamentals, warning that the baht may serve as an amplifier of external shocks, hurting export competitiveness and tourism recovery.
Amid the baht's appreciation, the Vietnamese dong has depreciated by 3.5% against the dollar year-to-date. This divergence is expected to reduce Thailand's competitiveness in exports and tourism.
"For example, a Chinese tourist visiting Thailand would face prices of goods and services roughly 4% higher than other destinations. If that tourist were to visit Vietnam instead, they would pay about 6% less on average, based on EIC's simulator," Mr Yunyong explained.
EIC projects the baht to strengthen further to 31.50–32 to the dollar this month and to 31–32 year-end.
Year-to-date, the baht has appreciated by 7.6% against the dollar -- its strongest level in four years and the highest among regional peers.
This has led to the baht's trade-weighted index to reach its highest level since the 1997 financial crisis.
The appreciation has been driven by both external and domestic factors, especially the weakening US dollar, higher gold exports amid rising global prices, a current account surplus and capital inflows into the bond market.
According to Mr Yunyong, foreign tourist arrivals remain well below last year's level, but signs of a recovery are emerging. Chinese arrivals are still down year-on-year, though the contraction is narrowing. Returning tourists, however, are spending more cautiously.
Thailand also faces rising competition for Asian tourists, with overlapping target segments across regional peers. EIC maintains its forecast for international tourist arrivals in 2025 at 32.9 million.
In addition, EIC highlights concerns over the rising unemployment rate, particularly among new graduates, reflecting the impact of sluggish business expansion.
The unemployment rate for those aged 15–24 rose to 18.9% in the second quarter of 2025, up from 16.1% in the previous quarter.
Amid weaker economic growth and sluggish business expansion, employment has continued to slow, impacting the labour market. Businesses prefer hiring experienced workers over new graduates in response to the challenging economic conditions.
"AI disruption is another key factor contributing to the rise in youth unemployment, a trend that has become increasingly evident in the United States," Mr Yunyong said.
Meanwhile, EIC has trimmed its forecast for GDP growth for 2025 to 1.8% from 2.0% previously, and anticipates a potential decline to 1.5% in 2026.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... trong-baht
by Somruedi Banchongduang
September 30, 2025
The continued appreciation of the baht against the US dollar, if left unaddressed, could weaken Thailand's competitiveness in both tourism and exports relative to its regional peers, cautions SCB EIC, the research centre under Siam Commercial Bank (SCB).
Yunyong Thaicharoen, chief economist at EIC, said the baht's strength is inconsistent with Thailand's subdued economic fundamentals, warning that the baht may serve as an amplifier of external shocks, hurting export competitiveness and tourism recovery.
Amid the baht's appreciation, the Vietnamese dong has depreciated by 3.5% against the dollar year-to-date. This divergence is expected to reduce Thailand's competitiveness in exports and tourism.
"For example, a Chinese tourist visiting Thailand would face prices of goods and services roughly 4% higher than other destinations. If that tourist were to visit Vietnam instead, they would pay about 6% less on average, based on EIC's simulator," Mr Yunyong explained.
EIC projects the baht to strengthen further to 31.50–32 to the dollar this month and to 31–32 year-end.
Year-to-date, the baht has appreciated by 7.6% against the dollar -- its strongest level in four years and the highest among regional peers.
This has led to the baht's trade-weighted index to reach its highest level since the 1997 financial crisis.
The appreciation has been driven by both external and domestic factors, especially the weakening US dollar, higher gold exports amid rising global prices, a current account surplus and capital inflows into the bond market.
According to Mr Yunyong, foreign tourist arrivals remain well below last year's level, but signs of a recovery are emerging. Chinese arrivals are still down year-on-year, though the contraction is narrowing. Returning tourists, however, are spending more cautiously.
Thailand also faces rising competition for Asian tourists, with overlapping target segments across regional peers. EIC maintains its forecast for international tourist arrivals in 2025 at 32.9 million.
In addition, EIC highlights concerns over the rising unemployment rate, particularly among new graduates, reflecting the impact of sluggish business expansion.
The unemployment rate for those aged 15–24 rose to 18.9% in the second quarter of 2025, up from 16.1% in the previous quarter.
Amid weaker economic growth and sluggish business expansion, employment has continued to slow, impacting the labour market. Businesses prefer hiring experienced workers over new graduates in response to the challenging economic conditions.
"AI disruption is another key factor contributing to the rise in youth unemployment, a trend that has become increasingly evident in the United States," Mr Yunyong said.
Meanwhile, EIC has trimmed its forecast for GDP growth for 2025 to 1.8% from 2.0% previously, and anticipates a potential decline to 1.5% in 2026.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... trong-baht
Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Thailand mostly runs a balance of trade surplus. The US runs a horrendous balance of trade deficit. Eventually, the currencies are supposed to move towards evening this out.
To me, the only mystery is why it takes so long for this to happen. It's not just the US with deficits either.
To me, the only mystery is why it takes so long for this to happen. It's not just the US with deficits either.
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Gaybutton
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Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
BoT urged to address strong baht
by Somruedi Banchongduang
October 22, 2025
Business operators have renewed calls for the Bank of Thailand to address the baht's strength, saying an exchange rate of 34-35 baht per US dollar would be more favourable for exports.
Speaking after a meeting between the central bank and the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) held on Tuesday, Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the trade group, said continued baht appreciation against the dollar has weakened Thailand's competitiveness in both exports and tourism -- the country's two key economic drivers -- compared with regional peers.
Exports and tourism typically contribute around 60% and 10% of Thailand's total revenue, respectively.
Against this backdrop, the industrial sector also presented several proposals on baht management to central bank governor Vitai Ratanakorn.
This year the baht has appreciated by as much as 8% against the US dollar, before easing to around 5% at present. In contrast, the Vietnamese dong and the Indonesian rupiah have depreciated by around 3% and 2%, respectively.
Thai exports to the US account for about 18% of total export value, compared with 32% for Vietnam, according to FTI data.
"Exporters would like the baht to weaken by about 2 baht per US dollar, moving within a range of 34-35 baht per dollar, to enhance Thailand's competitiveness," said Mr Kriengkrai.
The FTI acknowledges in addition to a weaker dollar, other factors are contributing to the baht's appreciation, including rising gold prices. Money laundering through gold and cryptocurrency trading -- possibly linked to cross-border scams -- may also be influencing the baht's strength against the dollar, he said.
Given these concerns, the private sector urged relevant regulatory agencies to investigate such transactions, trace money flows and identify the true factors behind the baht's appreciation.
Although Thailand's correlation between its currency and gold prices is higher than in many other countries, gold exports have also surged significantly, particularly to Cambodia. Cambodia is now Thailand's second-largest gold export market after Switzerland.
During the first seven months of this year, Thailand's gold shipments to Cambodia tallied 71.3 billion baht, up from 59.9 billion year-on-year and compared with 106 billion baht for all of 2024.
Mr Kriengkrai said the meeting also covered the impact of US tariffs on the Thai economy. The FTI estimates US tariffs could affect Thai GDP growth by between 0.01 and 0.77 percentage points, depending on how effectively the government responds to the challenge.
In separate news, Mr Vitai confirmed after the meeting the central bank stands ready to work with relevant agencies to ensure effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policy to maintain economic stability.
Amid both external and domestic headwinds, the regulator downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.2% and 1.6%, respectively, from previous estimates of 2.3% and 1.7%.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... trong-baht
by Somruedi Banchongduang
October 22, 2025
Business operators have renewed calls for the Bank of Thailand to address the baht's strength, saying an exchange rate of 34-35 baht per US dollar would be more favourable for exports.
Speaking after a meeting between the central bank and the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) held on Tuesday, Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the trade group, said continued baht appreciation against the dollar has weakened Thailand's competitiveness in both exports and tourism -- the country's two key economic drivers -- compared with regional peers.
Exports and tourism typically contribute around 60% and 10% of Thailand's total revenue, respectively.
Against this backdrop, the industrial sector also presented several proposals on baht management to central bank governor Vitai Ratanakorn.
This year the baht has appreciated by as much as 8% against the US dollar, before easing to around 5% at present. In contrast, the Vietnamese dong and the Indonesian rupiah have depreciated by around 3% and 2%, respectively.
Thai exports to the US account for about 18% of total export value, compared with 32% for Vietnam, according to FTI data.
"Exporters would like the baht to weaken by about 2 baht per US dollar, moving within a range of 34-35 baht per dollar, to enhance Thailand's competitiveness," said Mr Kriengkrai.
The FTI acknowledges in addition to a weaker dollar, other factors are contributing to the baht's appreciation, including rising gold prices. Money laundering through gold and cryptocurrency trading -- possibly linked to cross-border scams -- may also be influencing the baht's strength against the dollar, he said.
Given these concerns, the private sector urged relevant regulatory agencies to investigate such transactions, trace money flows and identify the true factors behind the baht's appreciation.
Although Thailand's correlation between its currency and gold prices is higher than in many other countries, gold exports have also surged significantly, particularly to Cambodia. Cambodia is now Thailand's second-largest gold export market after Switzerland.
During the first seven months of this year, Thailand's gold shipments to Cambodia tallied 71.3 billion baht, up from 59.9 billion year-on-year and compared with 106 billion baht for all of 2024.
Mr Kriengkrai said the meeting also covered the impact of US tariffs on the Thai economy. The FTI estimates US tariffs could affect Thai GDP growth by between 0.01 and 0.77 percentage points, depending on how effectively the government responds to the challenge.
In separate news, Mr Vitai confirmed after the meeting the central bank stands ready to work with relevant agencies to ensure effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policy to maintain economic stability.
Amid both external and domestic headwinds, the regulator downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.2% and 1.6%, respectively, from previous estimates of 2.3% and 1.7%.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... trong-baht
Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
There has been a lot of depreciation of both these currencies over the decades, which is why there are so many zeros on the end of everything you buy there. I doubt it helps much.Bangkok Post wrote: ↑Wed Oct 22, 2025 6:51 amIn contrast, the Vietnamese dong and the Indonesian rupiah have depreciated by around 3% and 2%, respectively.
22163 Rupiah to the pound. 35153 Dong to the pound.
Admittedly, at least the Dong has been more stable in the last decade.
On the other hand, the Lao kip is catching up fast now, with 28971 to the pound.
The last money boy I saw in Vientiane asked for & received payment in Thai baht. I suspect that would be even more common now.
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Gaybutton
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Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Thailand Is Hunting Down ‘Gray Money’ Behind Baht’s Odd Strength
By Suttinee Yuvejwattana, Bloomberg
November 5, 2025
The Thai government will set up a special team to track suspicious fund movements linked to online gambling, scam accounts, and other “gray money” transactions.
The so-called “data bureau” will synchronize data across government and financial institutions to detect unusual transfers and trace the ultimate beneficiaries of suspicious funds, Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas told reporters Wednesday after meeting with relevant agencies to tighten oversight.
“We will not fix this on a case-by-case basis, but will update the standards for detecting suspicious flows,” Ekniti said. “We hope everything should be done by December.”
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has put Ekniti in charge of forming a team with the central bank and other agencies under a so-called “Connect the Dots” task force to investigate irregular money flows that may be fueling the baht’s unusual strength despite Thailand’s weak economy.
Anutin on Wednesday also vowed an all-out crackdown on financial crimes, saying his government has “signed a blank check” to back efforts to root out scammers, human-trafficking networks and drug rings.
“Gray money,” according to Ekniti, typically flows through cryptocurrency platforms, cash networks, currency exchanges and gold markets. Once in the country, such funds are often laundered through high-value assets such as gold, real estate, diamonds and luxury cars.
The government also plans to upgrade its monitoring system for suspicious financial flows and align existing regulations with global standards set by the Financial Action Task Force, Ekniti said.
Thai authorities have been ramping up efforts to combat questionable money flows. The Bank of Thailand on Tuesday announced that commercial banks must strengthen monitoring and due diligence procedures to detect and report any suspicious transfers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... d-strength
By Suttinee Yuvejwattana, Bloomberg
November 5, 2025
The Thai government will set up a special team to track suspicious fund movements linked to online gambling, scam accounts, and other “gray money” transactions.
The so-called “data bureau” will synchronize data across government and financial institutions to detect unusual transfers and trace the ultimate beneficiaries of suspicious funds, Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas told reporters Wednesday after meeting with relevant agencies to tighten oversight.
“We will not fix this on a case-by-case basis, but will update the standards for detecting suspicious flows,” Ekniti said. “We hope everything should be done by December.”
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has put Ekniti in charge of forming a team with the central bank and other agencies under a so-called “Connect the Dots” task force to investigate irregular money flows that may be fueling the baht’s unusual strength despite Thailand’s weak economy.
Anutin on Wednesday also vowed an all-out crackdown on financial crimes, saying his government has “signed a blank check” to back efforts to root out scammers, human-trafficking networks and drug rings.
“Gray money,” according to Ekniti, typically flows through cryptocurrency platforms, cash networks, currency exchanges and gold markets. Once in the country, such funds are often laundered through high-value assets such as gold, real estate, diamonds and luxury cars.
The government also plans to upgrade its monitoring system for suspicious financial flows and align existing regulations with global standards set by the Financial Action Task Force, Ekniti said.
Thai authorities have been ramping up efforts to combat questionable money flows. The Bank of Thailand on Tuesday announced that commercial banks must strengthen monitoring and due diligence procedures to detect and report any suspicious transfers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... d-strength
Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Why do they never do anything like this to track the flow of tea money ?Suttinee Yuvejwattana wrote: ↑Wed Nov 05, 2025 6:36 pm The Thai government will set up a special team to track suspicious fund movements linked to online gambling, scam accounts, and other “gray money” transactions.
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Gaybutton
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thaiophilus
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Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Well, they could make the stationery manufacturers print unique serial numbers on all brown envelopes...
Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Presumably they're tracking these suspicious fund movements not to stop them, but to charge tea money wherever possible ?
After all, if law & order were the main priority, they would START by tackling corruption, because there is little hope of fixing anything else when tea money is endemic.
After all, if law & order were the main priority, they would START by tackling corruption, because there is little hope of fixing anything else when tea money is endemic.