Thailand's reaction to Trump victory

[Gaybutton]

Trump win shakes confidence, no long-term impact on Thailand

9 Nov 2016

US president-elect Donald Trump is sending funds flowing out of Thailand in the short-term but it will not affect the country's economic outlook, a senior Finance Ministry official said on Wednesday.

Fiscal Policy Office director-general Warotai Kosolpisitkul, expected foreign funds to flee the country to safe assets after the Republican candidate won the US presidential election over Democrat rival Hillary Clinton on Wednesday.

Investors dumped the US dollar and went to gold and the Swiss Franc as a safe heaven and that would make the baht weaker against the greenback, he added.

Mr Warotai remained confident about the ability of the country to absorb volatility due to high foreign reserves and solid economic fundamentals. The long-term economic prospect will be unchanged for Thailand, he added.

The victory of Mr Trump was a "risk factor" for the global economy as investors will put on hold investments due to uncertainty over his economic policies, he said.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand lost as much as 1.6% during the day after Mr Trump led the vote count and pared losses by closing 0.03% lower.

Thai stocks were in line with other Southeast Asian peers which closed lower, with Philippine shares dipping to its lowest since May 10, when Rodrigo Duterte was elected president.

Europe followed suite, tipping 2% lower in Frankfurt, London and Paris, but the British market rebounded briefly into slender gains after Mr Trump's conciliatory acceptance speech.

"We have seen the market reaction be nowhere near as bad as it might have been -- we could yet see a big pullback," said ETX Capital analyst Neil Wilson.

"Just like Brexit the longer term implications of this vote are much harder to discern and forcing investors to take stock."

"For now markets look like they are in limbo, maybe waiting for the US open for direction," he told AFP.

The Gold Traders Association adjusted the gold prices 19 times as of 3.26pm on Wednesday.

The buying prices were set at 21,011.76 baht per baht-weight for gold ornaments and 21,400 baht per baht-weight for gold bar.

The selling prices were at 22,000 baht per baht-weight for gold ornaments and 21,500 baht per baht-weight for gold bar.

It rose around 200 baht from Tuesday's close and was in line with the global trend.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... n-thailand
________________________________________________________________

Markets dip after Trump victory

November 10, 2016

By Business Reporters
THE NATION

Stock markets in Asia, including Thailand, fell yesterday after Republican candidate Donald Trump won the US presidency, stoking fears over the impact on the global economy.

The Monetary Policy Committee warned the Thai private sector to prepare for high volatility from the capital fund flows and the currency fluctuations as global markets and the US economy are affected by unclear policy from Trump.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand slipped 0.03 per cent or 0.41 point to close at 1,509.43 with turnover of Bt93.33 billion. Foreign investors were net sellers of Bt2.63 billion.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell 1.08 per cent to close at 2,789.88 points, while the Jakarta Composite Index closed down by 1.03 per cent to 5,414.32 points.

The Hang Seng Index dived 2.16 per cent, or 494.28 points, to end at 22,415.19. The main index of the Philippine Stock Exchange fell 2.5 per cent.

Other regional markets suffered deeper declines, including Tokyo, which nose-dived 5.4 per cent. Indian shares went into a free fall during trading before rebounding later to a net drop of 1.33 per cent.

Apple Wealth Securities said there should not be much worry about the SET, as it would take time to see which of Trump’s stated policies could actually proceed.

The brokerage added that on the contrary, if Trump’s idea of keeping US interest rates low is carried out, that should favour the Thai bourse as investments would return to risky assets like stocks.

Meanwhile, Komsorn Prakobpol, head of the Tisco Economic Strategy Unit, said Trump’s election victory could pressure emerging stock markets because of his policy against free trade.

Examples of Trump’s pledged trade policy are higher tariffs, particularly on imports from China, and reviews of the North American Free Trade Agreement and US obligations under the World Trade Organisation. Such policies are major risks to the global economy while world trade is stagnant, Komsorn said. “Meanwhile, the US stock markets will likely outperform and safe-haven assets like gold, the Japanese yen and bonds are expected to gain short-term support from capital inflows,” he said.

Komsorn said the US dollar was expected to depreciate against the yen and the euro, but it would appreciate against the baht and other emerging-market currencies, he said.

Crude-oil prices are expected to be see positive impacts from a more aggressive position of the United States towards conflicts in the Middle East, he said.

Trump may abolish the nuclear agreement with Iran, which could result in the Tehran cutting its oil exports, and as a result the global oil supply would tighten.

Coal prices will gain from his policy to support coal usage, but this would have negative impacts on the price of natural gas.

Overall, the US economy is expected to gain in the short term from fiscal stimuli like tax reductions, Komsorn said.

Jimmy Koh, head of global markets and economics research at United Overseas Bank (UOB), said direct impacts from a Trump presidency on Thailand’s economy would likely be limited thanks to the Kingdom’s market-diversification strategy.

Not only the US, but also the European Union, Japan, China and Asean countries are among Thailand’s largest trading partners and foreign investors.
Impacts on the Indonesian economy are likely to be limited as well, even though the US is among that country’s top export markets.

Thailand and Indonesia are both outside the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement and are likely to stay that way for at least two years, until all TPP members ratify the deal.

Nevertheless, Trump’s stated protectionist agenda will diminish international trade flows and imperil the fragile global economic recovery if implemented.

Currently, merchandise exports are a key drag on economic growth mainly because of slowdowns in the Chinese and Asian economies and structural constraints on significant export sectors.

Export-oriented firms will postpone their investments owing to low capacity utilisation. Consequently, it will be difficult to unleash a new investment cycle in Thailand and the economy will grow below its potential in the medium term, UOB says.

To support the Kingdom’s economic recovery, the Bank of Thailand will likely maintain the policy rate at a low level.

Meanwhile, volatility in financial markets will be heightened, and this will contribute to fluctuations in the baht and rupiah in the short term.

Volatility expected

Jaturong Jantarangs, secretary of the BOT’s Monetary Policy Committee, warned the Thai private sector to prepare for high volatility from the capital fund flows and the currency |fluctuations as global markets and the US economy are |affected by unclear policy from Trump.

Isara Vongkusolkit, chairman of the Board of Trade of Thailand and the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said Trump’s win had worried business people as his policies seem more concerned with the domestic economy, while his international trade policy is unclear.

“Business people have worries about his policies in the future and need to monitor his moves and US government policy closely from now on,” he said.He hopes that as a businessman, Trump should not adopt an extremely isolationist policy, and expects that he will learn to operate on a “give and take” basis.

His policy to raise import tariffs should not include consumer goods or foods, of which Thailand is a major supplier to the US. Otherwise, Americans will suffer a higher cost of living, something Trump should not want to see, Isara said.

Isara also forecast that as Trump’s policy is against the TPP agreement, this should benefit Thailand, which has not yet joined the pact.
Nopporn Thepsithar, president of the Thai National Shippers Council, said the changes under Trump would not be as bad as many fear.

“America has been with [President Barack] Obama, a Democrat, for eight years, but nothing improved. The global and US economies have been getting worse. Trump’s triumph has reflected Americans’ demand to see real change,” he said.

In the short term, the exchange rate may be fluctuate, but in the long run, the global economy should improve along with better relations with Russia, he said.

Boonyarit Kalayanamit, director-general of the Commerce Ministry’s Trade Negotiations Department, said it was a good time for Thailand to continue its good relations with other countries including the US through the “strategic partnership” strategy if the TPP is aborted.

Wiboonlasana Ruamraksa, permanent secretary of the Commerce Ministry, said the Thai trade official in the United States was closely monitoring US moves. In the long run, Thailand need to adjust to diversify its markets to rely more on other countries as the US becomes more protectionist.

Komsorn expects the US stock markets to outperform other bourses, given the likely depreciation of the dollar and Trump’s tax-reduction policy.
However, such market movements are expected to be short-term, he said. In the long term, Trump’s stated policies will have to be monitored as to how much can be really implemented.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/bu ... s/30299627

[Gaybutton]

Trump ‘no threat to Thailand’

by Wasamon Audjarint, Jakrawan Salaytoo, Petchanet Pratruangkra

November 11, 2016
THE NATION

Diplomats say while there could be some challenges on the trade front, there was nothing for America’s ‘oldest Asian ally’ to worry about.

Donald Trump's presidency and policies could raise anxiety and also trigger domestic and international protests but Thailand would benefit from his policies, Thai senior officials and politicians said yesterday.

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha told Thai envoys in a meeting yesterday that Thailand was ready to work with the US administration no matter who is the president.

“We need to keep up with global trends. There have been changes such as the [US] presidential election. We need to stand firm on our ground, whether it be social or to do with the economy,” he said.

Former prime minister and Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said yesterday that Trump would be positive for Thailand and other Asian countries, as the new leader was less inclined to adhere to existing rules and limitations.

“Thai politics in the eyes of the Western world is full of military coups and protests. I think Trump won’t follow that line of thinking. He may want to boost bilateral ties without bothering about Thai politics,” Abhisit said.

However, he warned that Trump might step up protectionist trade measures because the new US leader saw Asian nations as taking advantage of his country.

Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn said there would be both positive and negative effects from Trump’s policies on the global trading system, hence Thailand should prepare for US protectionism.

Thailand’s ambassador to the US, Pisan Manawapat, said he expected the Kingdom to benefit from US policies, which would be revamped under a Trump administration.

“Trump once said Thailand is the oldest Asian ally of the US. And our alliance has indeed been strong,” Pisan told The Nation. “And Trump’s ‘America First’ policy will be fair to those who can benefit the US.”

Pisan said he saw greater potential for Thai companies in the US to expand. “I see their potential to create more jobs there,” he said. “While jobs are the heart of Americans, we could also expand exports and investment capacity. It is a relative gain that we’re talking about.”

Bilateral military alliance could also be an additional benefit, as Trump plans to create “peace through strength”, the envoy said.

Negative impacts

“Thailand has been involved with US troops from the Korean to the Vietnam wars. Our ties have strengthened in the post-World War II era,” he said. “With Trump’s emphasis on military alliances, Thailand would be in a favourable position.”

The US president-elect’s emphasis on counter-terrorism measures could also be a good takeaway for Thailand, he added.

Though Trump’s anti-free trade agenda has been publicly slammed, the Kingdom could take advantage of it by opening fresh economic cooperation processes since some agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), would be nullified by the Trump administration.

“Going back to square one means we can build this partnership in a new framework in a more desirable way,” he said.

Meanwhile, Deputy Defence Minister General Udomdej Sitabutr said that he did not expect any negative impacts for Thailand following Trump’s election.

Trump’s image might have worried many people but the president-elect seems to have been more restrained and careful after his poll victory. “I see no reasons to worry,” he said.

On the economic front, there should be no immediate impact on Thai exports to the US, but exporters should get ready for more stringent trade and import rules likely to be imposed by the US next year.

According to Commerce Minister Apiradi, Thai shipments to the US are projected to rise one per cent, valued at US$25 billion this year, but next year’s growth projection is about 3 percent.

Trump’s election pledge to boost gross domestic product growth to 3.5 per cent per year should also stimulate domestic trade and international trade.

However, his protectionist measures would pose challenges for trading partners, including Thailand, to adapt to the new environment, especially with regard to non-tariff barriers and stringent enforcement of the law on intellectual property rights.

Malee Choklumlerd, director-general of the International Trade Promotion Department, said the US was unlikely to impose higher tariffs on Thai products, especially food, as it relied heavily on food imports. For instance, Americans consume a lot of tuna and shrimp each year, while domestic production is small and unable to meet domestic demand.

Regarding the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade deal, which could be abandoned by Trump, Apiradee said Thailand would continue to study the pros and cons of the deal.

Thailand had been under pressure to join the TPP, as other Asean countries such as Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia are already TPP members.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/politics/30299712

[Gaybutton]

Thai ambassador sees better US ties with Trump

by Prangthong Jitcharoenkul

11 Nov 2016

The Thai ambassador to the United States sees a good opportunity to strengthen ties with Washington after President-elect Donald Trump affirmed the importance of long-standing friends with mutual interests

During a meeting of Thai ambassadors and consuls-general at the Foreign Ministry on Friday, ambassador Pisan Manawapat said the US president-elect had given a clear indication of what he would do when he takes over in 100 days.

With this, came a good opportunity for Thailand to boost relations with the United States.

Mr Trump had said he would attach importance to long-standing friendly nations with mutual interests, Mr Pisan said. Thai-American relations went back 183 years, and the two countries had considerable mutual interests, the ambassador said.

Mr Pisan did not appear too concerned about Mr Trump's threat to raise import tariffs. That was said while campaigning for votes, and as a businessman Mr Trump should have a good understanding and would not implement any policy that would have negative effects.

Once in office, the new government would realise the limitations set by laws and agreements under the World Trade Organisation, and the possibility of retaliatory action by some countries, he said.

Mr Pisan did not think that Thailand would be a target of any American trade barriers. He suggested Thai businesses expand economic ties with the US by ensuring a mutual interest.

Thai operators could give assurances that any interests they take over in the US would result in more jobs for local people. That would encourage a good response from local authorities, he said.

The ambassador also said Thais were not a target of racism in the US. Thai people and Thai foods were admired there.

The new government would find ways to mend the rifts that occurred during the election campaign. Mr Trump already vowed to be a president for all Americans, the ambassador to Washington said.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general ... with-trump