I am not in a knowledgeable position to judge the validity of what either of them say, but I am definitely in a position to like the idea of 40 baht to the US dollar.
Trouble is - unless something drastic happens, I don't see it getting there.
Just a couple years ago some of the "experts" were telling us the exchange rate would soon get to 42 baht to the US dollar and stabilize there. Another failed prediction. I don't know why they so rarely ever get it right.
The Baht's Troubling Rise
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Gaybutton
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Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Well, if the exchange rate were certain to get to 42 baht to the dollar, it would already be there (approximately).
In practice, out of a diverse range predictions, the newspaper might just have picked the one that looked like it would get the most clicks.
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Gaybutton
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Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
Thailand tightens reporting of non-resident cash inflows
New rule on incoming sums over $200,000 part of effort to manage baht
December 26, 2025
Thailand is taking a closer look at capital inflows by non-residents as part of the central bank’s effort to manage baht movements.
Thai banks must now report capital inflows exceeding $200,000 by non-residents, Bank of Thailand governor Vitai Ratanakorn said on Friday.
“This is the first time we are checking the purposes and documentation of such inflows,” he said.
The new rule is scheduled to take effect on Monday.
In addition, banks will be required to report gold trading transactions conducted via digital platforms, both on a per-day and per-transaction basis.
Mr Vitai said the new measures would enable the central bank to manage baht movements more effectively, as the currency has strengthened faster and more sharply against the US dollar than its regional peers in recent months.
On a monthly basis, the baht has appreciated 4.2% against the US dollar, marking the strongest gain among regional currencies, followed by the Malaysian ringgit (1.7%), Singapore dollar (1.4%) and Chinese yuan (1%). For the year to date, the baht has strengthened 9.4% against the dollar.
The baht was trading yesterday at 31.03 to the dollar, and most analysts believe it will test the 30-baht level before long.
“Beyond economic fundamentals, several other factors have contributed to the baht’s appreciation against the US dollar,” Mr Vitai said. “We need the most comprehensive information possible to monitor currency movements.”
Mr Vitai said gold speculation has played a significant role in strengthening the baht, in line with the surge in global gold prices this year. The BoT is working with the Ministry of Finance and other relevant agencies to better manage these impacts.
Online gold trading in recent months has accounted for 40-50% of total foreign exchange transactions, peaking at 60% in August. As a result, stricter regulations on gold-related forex transactions are needed, he said.
On Tuesday, representatives from the central bank, the finance ministry and the Securities and Exchange Commission discussed the possible imposition of a special business tax on online gold trading, pending an assessment by the Revenue Department of whether such a tax is appropriate.
Mr Vitai acknowledged on Friday that the central bank has intervened aggressively to ease volatility in the baht.
“Although we have intervened heavily in the latter half of the year, our efforts could only mitigate fluctuations,” he told reporters.
“We want to reduce volatility. We do not want the baht to strengthen to the point where it hurts exporters and the economy.”
The central bank has not set a specific target for the baht’s value and cannot manipulate the currency due to international agreements, he added.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... sh-inflows
New rule on incoming sums over $200,000 part of effort to manage baht
December 26, 2025
Thailand is taking a closer look at capital inflows by non-residents as part of the central bank’s effort to manage baht movements.
Thai banks must now report capital inflows exceeding $200,000 by non-residents, Bank of Thailand governor Vitai Ratanakorn said on Friday.
“This is the first time we are checking the purposes and documentation of such inflows,” he said.
The new rule is scheduled to take effect on Monday.
In addition, banks will be required to report gold trading transactions conducted via digital platforms, both on a per-day and per-transaction basis.
Mr Vitai said the new measures would enable the central bank to manage baht movements more effectively, as the currency has strengthened faster and more sharply against the US dollar than its regional peers in recent months.
On a monthly basis, the baht has appreciated 4.2% against the US dollar, marking the strongest gain among regional currencies, followed by the Malaysian ringgit (1.7%), Singapore dollar (1.4%) and Chinese yuan (1%). For the year to date, the baht has strengthened 9.4% against the dollar.
The baht was trading yesterday at 31.03 to the dollar, and most analysts believe it will test the 30-baht level before long.
“Beyond economic fundamentals, several other factors have contributed to the baht’s appreciation against the US dollar,” Mr Vitai said. “We need the most comprehensive information possible to monitor currency movements.”
Mr Vitai said gold speculation has played a significant role in strengthening the baht, in line with the surge in global gold prices this year. The BoT is working with the Ministry of Finance and other relevant agencies to better manage these impacts.
Online gold trading in recent months has accounted for 40-50% of total foreign exchange transactions, peaking at 60% in August. As a result, stricter regulations on gold-related forex transactions are needed, he said.
On Tuesday, representatives from the central bank, the finance ministry and the Securities and Exchange Commission discussed the possible imposition of a special business tax on online gold trading, pending an assessment by the Revenue Department of whether such a tax is appropriate.
Mr Vitai acknowledged on Friday that the central bank has intervened aggressively to ease volatility in the baht.
“Although we have intervened heavily in the latter half of the year, our efforts could only mitigate fluctuations,” he told reporters.
“We want to reduce volatility. We do not want the baht to strengthen to the point where it hurts exporters and the economy.”
The central bank has not set a specific target for the baht’s value and cannot manipulate the currency due to international agreements, he added.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... sh-inflows
Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
I presume you're exempt as a resident. However, if sending $199k to one bank and $199k to another, presumably neither bank needs to report?Bangkok Post wrote: ↑Sat Dec 27, 2025 6:11 amThai banks must now report capital inflows exceeding $200,000 by non-residents, Bank of Thailand governor Vitai Ratanakorn said on Friday.
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Gaybutton
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Re: The Baht's Troubling Rise
If you mean expats, maybe not exempt. Expats on the retirement visa, to the best of my knowledge, are not legally considered residents.