Boeing 737 Max8 Crashes

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fountainhall
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Re: Boeing 737 Max8 Crashes

Post by fountainhall » Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:09 pm

Let's be clear about one thing. The return to the air concerns certification flights ONLY. As has been widely reported, Boeing has still to work out the training schedule for pilots. Then airlines have to get their parked aircraft out of mothballs. Given the length of time required for each, any realistic return to passenger service is not going to happen until 2020.

But s detailed reading of that article makes it very clear there is still no certainty that the certification flights will actually take place in October. It is merely a possibility.
There are still numerous tasks to be accomplished before Boeing can complete its submission to recertify the plane, said another person familiar with the process. The person wasn’t aware of a specific projection that the FAA test flight would occur in October, but said it was a possibility.
One promising sign from Boeing is that it is inviting 737 Max pilots from worldwide airlines to test the aircraft's new systems in flight simulators before going to the FAA for certification. Since that information was made public only last week and there are very few Max simulators anywhere in the world, that process alone is likely to take some weeks.
The FAA said Thursday it’s inviting “a cross-section of line pilots from carriers that operate the aircraft around the world” to participate in simulator testing “as part of the overall testing and validating of new procedures on the Boeing 737 MAX.”
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... to-flight/

Then there is another issue that few have been commenting on anywhere. With the current extremely bad state of trade relations between the USA and China, does anyone believe that the Chinese aviation regulator will do anything other than maintain its grounding ban until Trump changes his trade tune? And if just if one regulator withholds approval, where does that leave the grounded aircraft! Still grounded? According to Forbes, all regulators have to agree before the plane can fly passengers again.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasqui ... 0da9313528

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Jun
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Re: Boeing 737 Max8 Crashes

Post by Jun » Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:34 pm

fountainhall wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:09 pm
With the current extremely bad state of trade relations between the USA and China, does anyone believe that the Chinese aviation regulator will do anything other than maintain its grounding ban until Trump changes his trade tune?
Also the Chinese have the Comac C919 due to go into service in 2021. Considering that, plus US-China relations and the fact that Boeing and the FAA screwed up first time, it's certainly possible that China will be in no hurry to sign off the 737 max.

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Re: Boeing 737 Max8 Crashes

Post by fountainhall » Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:09 pm

United Airlines has once again put back the reintroduction of its Max fleet from November 3 until December 19. Southwest has already stated it is looking to early in 2020 for reintroducing its fleet. Expect American Airlines to follow United.

Meanwhile the FAA has announced that the Joint Authorities Technical Review Panel which includes nine safety regulators from around the world requires at least two more weeks to complete its review and then a few more after that before the findings are published. But this is just one of many reports the FAA will consider before it comes to a final decision on when the 737 Max can be recertified.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/30/united- ... ec-19.html

gera
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Re: Boeing 737 Max8 Crashes

Post by gera » Sat Aug 31, 2019 7:46 pm

fountainhall wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:09 pm

Then there is another issue that few have been commenting on anywhere. With the current extremely bad state of trade relations between the USA and China, does anyone believe that the Chinese aviation regulator will do anything other than maintain its grounding ban until Trump changes his trade tune? And if just if one regulator withholds approval, where does that leave the grounded aircraft! Still grounded? According to Forbes, all regulators have to agree before the plane can fly passengers again.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasqui ... 0da9313528
Do you seriously believe that (biased as you indicate yourself) opinion of Chinese regulator would prevent restart operations in USA? I do pay attention to this story. And my major interest is as investor. Therefore, when it comes to opinions, I take into consideration the articles published in Bloomberg,
since it is a publication which has no skin in the game beyond the goal of providing objective information for investors. The rest is personal judgement.
Based on that, I made my bet and bought shares of Boeing couple of days ago. My bet is the plane will be certified by the end of October. If I am right, I will make good money. If I am wrong, well, currently shares are traded within rather narrow band.

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Re: Boeing 737 Max8 Crashes

Post by fountainhall » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:18 am

gera wrote:
Sat Aug 31, 2019 7:46 pm
I made my bet and bought shares of Boeing couple of days ago. My bet is the plane will be certified by the end of October. If I am right, I will make good money. If I am wrong, well, currently shares are traded within rather narrow band.
At my stage in life I cannot be as adventurous as younger guys but I would never wish any investor anything other then the best of luck in making a decent profit.

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