Time for a poll - Who's going to win the USA Presidential election?

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Who do you think will win the USA Presidential election?

Poll ended at Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:33 pm

1. Biden
9
64%
2. Trump
5
36%
3. A third party candidate
0
No votes
4. A write-in candidate
0
No votes
5. It will be a tie
0
No votes
6. Other (please explain)
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 14

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Gaybutton
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Time for a poll - Who's going to win the USA Presidential election?

Post by Gaybutton »

Not who do you want to win, but who do you genuinely think really will win?

One prediction per person.

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Re: Time for a poll - Who's going to win the USA Presidential election?

Post by Up2u »

Look for some big breaking news, Barr or FBI investigation into the Bidens.

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Re: Time for a poll - Who's going to win the USA Presidential election?

Post by Jun »

I think Biden will win and that's based on :
(i) Very strong polling suggesting he will win. e.g.: https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/

(ii) Assuming the American electorate will not vote for a moron who's clearly incapable of doing the job. He's also moved from a budget that's slowly bankrupting the US to one that's very quickly bankrupting it (even before Covid)

For those who think Trump WILL win, how did you reach that conclusion ?

Note, I'm not a US citizen & don't claim to have any particular insight into this. I'm just interested to know WHY people think Trump will win.

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Re: Time for a poll - Who's going to win the USA Presidential election?

Post by a447 »

America did not become the pre-eminent nation in the world because its people are stupid.

They have now seen what a Trump presidency means and so will vote him out.

Biden will win in a landslide.

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Re: Time for a poll - Who's going to win the USA Presidential election?

Post by Up2u »

Jun wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:04 pm
I'm just interested to know WHY people think Trump will win.
It's called the Electoral College. Defeating an incumbent President is difficult. Nate Silver and the NYTimes show Biden leading just like Clinton led in 2016. IF the Democrats come out in big numbers it could be and should be a Blue Wave Landslide. The early record breaking votes are encouraging but recent massive Republican registrations in the critical swing states show their enthusiasm and they will vote on election day. Biden should pickup Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan but he put his foot in his mouth (regarding oil) and Pennsylvania is now a big problem. Florida will be the early indicator for forecasting on election night. If Trump is carrying the red counties like 2016 and blue Dade and Miami County voters don't show up for Biden it's going to be a long long nail-biting night. Hope that's not the case. My nightmare is Trump replicates 2016, winning swing states by the narrowest of margins (all he needs is Pennsylvania) and Biden wins the popular vote by 6 million.

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Re: Time for a poll - Who's going to win the USA Presidential election?

Post by Jun »

Up2u wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:06 pm
It's called the Electoral College.
Here's how the FT are predicting it. That seems fairly comprehensive to me. https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/
[FT ought to be neutral, or as neutral as any paper can be whilst recognizing the failings of Trump]

Or New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presi ... rump-biden

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Re: Time for a poll - Who's going to win the USA Presidential election?

Post by Up2u »

And guru Nate Silver's forecast.... (Hillary was at 88 a week before the election)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

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Re: Time for a poll - Who's going to win the USA Presidential election?

Post by Dodger »

Ironically, our poll, which stands today at 67% Biden - 33% Trump, could be close to where the actual election ends up.

I'm not only confident that Trump will be defeated, but won't be surprised if we see a "landside" - similar to Ronald Reagan taking forty-four states and 489 electoral votes when he ran against Carter, making that the worst drubbing for a sitting president since 1932.

I'm not assuming that Trump will be defeated, because I can still feel the after-shock of the nightmare phenomenon 4 years ago, but I do feel very confident.

The icing on the cake, as if we'll need any, is the possibility of the Democrat's sweeping the House and Senate as well. Trump is dragging down the GOP from the top (no surprise there) - and a rising tide lifts all boats.

With the exception of a percentage of uneducated xenophobic white men who want the blacks and Mexicans back working the fields, and their women knowing their place, all other key demographic groups in the U.S. want Trump out. Fortunately, they constitute the majority of Americans, including those in the battleground states.

A lot of people are fearful of a Big Trump Surprise in the final days. Well, that Big Surprise ain't gonna happen. The only surprise he's going to see is on election day.

Go Biden!

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Re: Time for a poll - Who's going to win the USA Presidential election?

Post by Captain Swing »

Always the pessimist, I don't think we'll know for certain much before Thanksgiving. So many votes are mail-in, and some states accept them if they're merely postmarked by election day, even if they don't arrive until days later. I think we can assume that if Trump loses certain states by relatively close margins, or even not-so-close, he'll challenge the results in court. Actually, it's not impossible that Biden might do the same thing. With the strong conservative majority on the Supreme Court we can guess how the court challenges will end up. Assuming Biden ultimately does prevail, we won't REALLY know for sure until he's sworn in on Inauguration Day in January. I think the Senate will go 51-49 for the Republicans, unless Trump wins, in which case it will split 50-50, Pence breaking the tie. I'm afraid our long national nightmare is far from over.

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Re: Time for a poll - Who's going to win the USA Presidential election?

Post by Gaybutton »

Captain Swing wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:34 pm
if Trump loses certain states by relatively close margins, or even not-so-close, he'll challenge the results in court.
My question is, assuming your scenario happens, if it is not all resolved by January 20 - the date the next president is sworn in - who is president? Does Trump get to remain in power while challenging, even if Biden wins the electoral vote? Does Biden get sworn in, but only temporarily until the court cases are resolved? Does the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, take over until everything is resolved?

Who decides what happens? I don't know if the Supreme Court even has jurisdiction considering there is nothing I know of in the Constitution about how a disputed presidential election is to be handled. As far as I know there is no legal precedent of any kind. The Bush-Gore controversy never really went anywhere because Gore decided not to fight it. But if Trump loses, I don't think anyone needs me to tell what is likely to happen.

And you're right - everybody talks about what Trump will do if he loses, but I never hear anything about what Biden will do if he loses and decides to dispute the results. I would imagine legal teams on both sides have already been working on this for months.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - how would you like to be a history teacher 50 or 100 years from now trying to explain all this to your class? I think it would be easier trying to explain Hitler and Stalin to a 5-year old.

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