Three Year Forecast GBP to Thai Baht

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Three Year Forecast GBP to Thai Baht

Post by Undaunted » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:10 am

"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

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Re: Three Year Forecast GBP to Thai Baht

Post by fountainhall » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:48 am

Another stupid site purporting to predict the totally unpredictable! There are so many unknown factors such predictions are just not worth the paper they are printed on.

Who can forget this prediction from CNBC's famous stock picker?



After he'd told investors in no uncertain terms that Bear Sterns was not in trouble and not to withdraw their money, 3 days later the bank went belly up! If that can happen in 3 days, only the Lord knows what will happen in 3 years!

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Re: Three Year Forecast GBP to Thai Baht

Post by Gaybutton » Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:16 am

I agree with fountainhall on this one. Given the track record of exchange rate predictions, I think it's pointless to post predictions, especially years in advance. I wouldn't even consider predictions about where the exchange rates will be a couple months from now.

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Re: Three Year Forecast GBP to Thai Baht

Post by Undaunted » Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:29 am

GB a prediction is simply that nothing more nothing less however, if my finances were based on pounds, dollars or Euros which were to be converted to baht (which at the moment they aren’t) I would have an interest in any future occurrences that might directly affect my income.
The forecast was sent to me by a good friend who is a retired doctor from the NHS who owns 2 large homes in Jomtien and a Condo in BKK his plan to sell is based on what has happened to the pound and where it might be headed.
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Re: Three Year Forecast GBP to Thai Baht

Post by fountainhall » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:26 am

Undaunted wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:29 am
his plan to sell is based on what has happened to the pound and where it might be headed.
I totally fail to understand your friend's logic. If he believes sterling is headed downwards - and the chart predicts a fall from 37.5345 to 26.517 - every time the pound falls, the Baht value of his large properties in Thailand effectively increases. Consequently their sterling value increases. Only if he believes sterling will increase in value does it make much sense to sell - provided other factors mean he does not have to sell immediately. He could find himself losing out on a very handsome profit!

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Re: Three Year Forecast GBP to Thai Baht

Post by Jun » Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:33 pm

Undaunted wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:29 am
GB a prediction is simply that nothing more nothing less
Just because we would like to know the future, it makes no difference. Exchange rate forecasts are best treated as bullshit, whether we would benefit from an accurate forecast or not.

Ultimately, if the exchange rate was expected to follow a three year forecast, the rate would have already moved to the forecast value, +/- any potential difference in interest earnings over the three year period.

Also, on average, Doctors have no more ability to judge a good exchange rate forecast than the rest of us. Some of the ones I have the misfortune of encountering cannot even read results in front of them on a computer screen.

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Re: Three Year Forecast GBP to Thai Baht

Post by Undaunted » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:04 pm

Personally, I have no issue where the exchange rates are and don’t expect to for the foreseeable future. After selling my condo I no longer do the daily routine of checking exchange rates and my online purchases are done in baht as are my travels however, many I know are not as fortunate, also my income continues to accumulate as I do not touch it.
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Re: Three Year Forecast GBP to Thai Baht

Post by fountainhall » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:11 pm

Undaunted wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:29 am
The forecast was sent to me by a good friend who is a retired doctor from the NHS who owns 2 large homes in Jomtien and a Condo in BKK his plan to sell is based on what has happened to the pound and where it might be headed.
I still fail to comprehend your friend's logic. Why sell now if he believes the sterling will continue to fall?

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Re: Three Year Forecast GBP to Thai Baht

Post by Undaunted » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:20 pm

fountainhall wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:11 pm
Undaunted wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:29 am
The forecast was sent to me by a good friend who is a retired doctor from the NHS who owns 2 large homes in Jomtien and a Condo in BKK his plan to sell is based on what has happened to the pound and where it might be headed.
I still fail to comprehend your friend's logic. Why sell now if he believes the sterling will continue to fall?
Simple, he has a lot of equity in these homes and he is not a young man and would prefer to spend the proceeds which will be in baht and he will have little need if ever to convert his pounds at 38 and likely considerably less as time goes by.
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Re: Three Year Forecast GBP to Thai Baht

Post by fountainhall » Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:15 pm

Thank you. Just seems somewhat counter to the earlier explanation which seemed more concerned with where the pound was headed. I wish him well in getting good selling prices.

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