Baht Continues to Weaken

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

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I certainly am pleased. I won't say how much, but if this keeps up or at least holds right where it is, the increase in the amount of baht I'll receive when my next pension money arrives will be in the double digits since as recently as July.

I hope that will be the case for everyone. As I've said, we've been long overdue for a turnaround in the rotten exchange rates. I can only hope it keeps coming and that the BoT keeps its nose out of it.

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

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... as opposed to the UK pound to the bht, the pound has plummeted .... grhhh

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

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whitedesire wrote:
Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:51 am
... as opposed to the UK pound to the bht, the pound has plummeted .... grhhh
Can anyone explain why? I remember for years the rate was in the 70s per pound. Now only about 40 baht per pound. That is quite a drop and must especially be hard for UK expats living in Thailand on fixed incomes.

What would raise the value of the pound and how likely (or unlikely) is that to happen?

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

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whitedesire wrote:
Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:51 am
... as opposed to the UK pound to the bht, the pound has plummeted .... grhhh
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/23/citi-sa ... risis.html
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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

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I'm usually reluctant to post exchange rate predictions, but considering what has been happening, I think this one has a good chance of being accurate.

I don't think it is wishful thinking on my part because my wish would be the exchange rate gets much better than predicted . . .

Along with this, for Americans on Social Security, there will be at least a 2.5% increase in 2023. Not much, but it would put a little more in our pockets.

Of course, the obvious question is no matter how good the exchange rate gets for Americans, how long will it stay like that? I hope for a very long time. And I hope if anything changes, it gets even better rather than the drop we had to live with for so many years.
_____________________

Baht freefall could hit 38

by Somruedi Banchongduang

September 24, 2022

Economists forecast the value of the baht could plunge to 38 to the US dollar this year, mainly attributed to a stronger dollar as the Federal Reserve pursues a hawkish monetary policy.

Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital markets research at Kasikornbank (KBank), predicts the baht will depreciate to a range of 36.50-38 against the greenback within the next month.

Continued increases of the federal funds rate will result in the dollar appreciating compared with other currencies, including the baht, he said.

The baht is expected to remain highly volatile, in line with money markets worldwide, because of both external and internal factors, said Mr Kobsidthi.

The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to raise its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points from the current 0.75% at next week's meeting. The rate increase would strengthen the baht to 37 to the dollar next week, but after that the baht would slide as the dollar firms, he said.

KBank estimates the baht will strengthen again later this year, rising to 35 against the dollar at the end of 2022, mainly supported by tourism income.

Moreover, KBank expects the MPC to increase the policy rate by another 25 basis points at its November meeting, sending it to 1.25% at the end of this year, said Mr Kobsidthi.

Speaking at a separate event, Amonthep Chawla, head of the research economist office at CIMB Thai Bank (CIMBT), said the bank forecasts the baht to reach 38 to the dollar because of a stronger dollar, in line with the Fed's hawkish policy rate hikes.

CIMBT believes the Bank of Thailand will increase its policy rate to 1.75% by the end of 2022, then continue with more rate hikes to reach 2.5% at the end of next year.

"We expect the central bank will raise its policy rate two times, each by 50 basis points, this year to contain the spread between Thailand's rate and the fed funds rate. The move should help slow the baht depreciation," he said.

Mr Amonthep proposes the Finance Ministry and central bank change their existing inflation targeting framework to foreign exchange rate targeting to better manage foreign exchange rate stability.

The stronger dollar will also affect other currencies in the region, particularly the yuan, as well as the baht, he said.

Mr Amonthep said rising inflation is a key factor making the central bank continue to raise its policy rate. CIMBT forecasts the inflation rate will be 6.2% on average for this year, declining to 2.6% next year.

Despite the high inflation rate, the economy should continue to recover, largely thanks to a recovery in the tourism sector, according to CIMBT.

CIMBT upgraded its outlook for the country's GDP growth in 2022 to 3.2% from its earlier projection of 3.1%.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/23 ... uld-hit-38

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Rocket »

Well this new rate is complicating things for me. When the baht was about 32 baht to the dollar , it was easy to keep track. 3,000 baht was about $100. Or 300 baht was about $10. Now I have to think more,lol.

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