Baht Continues to Weaken

Anything and everything about Thailand
Post Reply
Dodger
Posts: 1926
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:58 am
Has thanked: 133 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Dodger »

Gaybutton wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:59 pm That would certainly be nice. I haven't seen anything about that. If it happens, do you have any idea when that is supposed to start?
It will start in January 2023.

Even at a whopping 8.6% it's still not enough to offset the inflation Americans are coping with - but for us expats in Thailand it's a bonanza.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/social-sec ... ease-2022/
User avatar
2lz2p
Posts: 957
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 8:08 am
Location: Pattaya, Thailand (Jomtien)
Has thanked: 148 times
Been thanked: 108 times

Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by 2lz2p »

Dodger wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:15 pm
Gaybutton wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:59 pm That would certainly be nice. I haven't seen anything about that. If it happens, do you have any idea when that is supposed to start?
It will start in January 2023.

Even at a whopping 8.6% it's still not enough to offset the inflation Americans are coping with - but for us expats in Thailand it's a bonanza.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/social-sec ... ease-2022/
The article notes the following:
The Social Security Administration will set the 2023 COLA in October based on the previous three months of inflation data, which means the actual rate hike could be somewhat different from the Senior Citizens League's forecast. Johnson last year predicted a 6.1% COLA increase, while the actual boost was 5.9%.

But there is a caveat about getting a big COLA increase: Much of the bump could be eaten up via Medicare premium increases, which typically also rise each year.
I agree it is a bonanza for those on US Social Security especially if they do not have Medicare Part B that covers doctor expenses - Part A that covers hospital expenses is free - no premium. If you are living full time in Thailand, Part B is useless as Medicare does not cover one outside the USA. One of the reasons I opted out of Part B.

Although my social security payment each month is less than 20% of the $1,658 monthly amount for social security mentioned in the article (I fell under their windfall provisions, thus the reduced amount). BUT, it is still a big bonanza for me as my Federal pension bases their annual COLA adjustment on the same factors used by Social Security. :D
Dodger
Posts: 1926
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:58 am
Has thanked: 133 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Dodger »

2lz2p wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:54 am
But there is a caveat about getting a big COLA increase: Much of the bump could be eaten up via Medicare premium increases, which typically also rise each year.
Like you I also opted out of Medicare part B when I retired - and this is one of the reasons why.

Cost of living increases due to inflation in Thailand certainly impact Thais more than expats for the obvious reasons. The cost of many food products (at the stores and open markets) appear to have increased an average of 5 baht per kg (rough estimate), which is so minimal that most expats don't even blink. For Thais on modest incomes, especially those raising large families, this is a different story.

It will be interesting (and a hell of a lot of fun) watching just how weak the baht can get before it stabilizes (if that's even possible). A return to 45 sounds good to me!
User avatar
Gaybutton
Posts: 21459
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Thailand
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 1306 times

Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Gaybutton »

A long time ago the exchange rate held steady around 45 baht to the US dollar. When the rate started going against our favor I remember Geezer getting very upset when the rate became 38 to the US dollar.

Now looking at it from a different perspective, I think we would all be delighted to see the exchange rate make it to 38. I know I would.
BKKDreamer
Posts: 90
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 2021 12:34 am
Has thanked: 28 times
Been thanked: 27 times

Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by BKKDreamer »

Hello all,

I see that the use of WISE is popular amongst some of you - as noted in this thread.
A friend of mine here in Hungary, where I live now, also recommended WISE to me - but he only uses the "local" features so he was not able to assist me with my below questions.

Yesterday, I registered as a new WISE member - but I did not yet proceed to the step to open an account - as I have some questions / concerns that if you all don't mind - I would like to gain your knowledge and personal experience They are:

My objectives for using WISE would be 2 fold:

1.) to fund my eventual new Thai bank account for the required 800.000 THB required for the non resident O visa (to be done in September) -- and to seed my new Thai bank account to get me started in Thailand for day-to-day expenses,
2.) to occasionally transfer my former employer pension payments to my Thai bank account.

For the above stated item 1.) - the funding source will be Euros from an Italian bank account. Please correct what I am about to write as this is what I believe that I have understood from the WISE informational FAQ. I would perform a SEPA transfer in Euro from my Italian bank account into the new WISE Euro account? Then I would request WISE (from within the app) to convert the required Euros into Thai baht (800.000) ? Then I would request that WISE wire transfer these freshly acquired Thai bahts to my new Thai bank account ? The WISE FAQ mentions that ONLY 3 Thai banks; Bangkok Bank, Kasikorn Bank, and Siam Commercial Bank are enabled for payments in excess of 49.999 Thai baht (maximum for each single transfer).

I plan to use Mots Services in Pattaya to open my Thai bank account and I believe that they would help me to open a bank account with Bangkok Bank?

Does the above sound correct to you? Did I miss any steps and/or misunderstand anything ?

For the 2nd half of item 1.) above - would you recommend that I open a 2nd Thai baht account for my day to day living expenses? To avoid the temptation that I inadvertently touch the 800.000 ? If yes, then I could repeat the above process to seed my new day-to-day living account from Italy.

For item 2.) above, regarding the monthly pension payments. They will originate from the USA - as that is where the pension plan system is located.
Would I just repeat the above process with WISE but for a US dollar based account ? Then buy the required Thai bahts within the WISE app - and then wire transfer them to my day-to-day living account ?

ok, I am sorry that this is a long request. I did search in the forums - but there are no posts that I could find that explain the end-to-end process.

again, drinks/dinner on me to those (after I am settled in in Jomtien) that can help me out with these questions. It is truly appreciated and invaluable.

Thanks,
M.

p.s. my Italian bank manager has told me that he would do everything for me - but he won't quote me a price in advance for the international wire transfer(s) and cost to convert from Euro to THB, etc. I fear that their charge(s) would be astronomical - as they are a small Italian bank. When I read about WISE in this forum - I thought that perhaps this could be a good ( ? safe ? ) alternative solution?
User avatar
Gaybutton
Posts: 21459
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Thailand
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 1306 times

Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Gaybutton »

I think you mostly have it right. Once you have the retirement visa you won't have any problem opening an account at any Thai bank you want. But yes, use Mots Services to help you open your initial Thai bank account - and I recommend that it be Bangkok Bank.

To use Wise all you have to do is have your money direct deposited into the online bank account Wise will set up for you. You will be notified whenever money arrives in your Wise account. You can then have Wise send whatever amount of money you want to Bangkok Bank - that can be all of it or you can opt to leave whatever portion you choose in the Wise account. Some people leave money in the Wise account on speculation that the exchange rate will improve, so you'll get more baht when Wise transfers for you.

Once you set up the accounts you will see that it is very simple and efficient to use. Wise will tell you what day the money will appear in your Bangkok Bank account, exactly how much baht you'll get, and the exchange rate you'll get.

If you have any difficulty, the Wise staff will walk you through everything you need to do and they'll tell you exactly how to do it. No need to worry about that.

Step 1 - set up a Bangkok Bank account - and make sure to get online banking
Step 2 - set up the Wise online bank account
Step 3 - Set up direct deposits from your European money source to the Wise online bank account

That's it. That's all you have to do. The rest is very simple.
BKKDreamer
Posts: 90
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 2021 12:34 am
Has thanked: 28 times
Been thanked: 27 times

Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by BKKDreamer »

Thank you GB - I am truly indebted to you for your advice and guidance.
I will follow your steps - as you mention it is quite easy.
Cheers,
M.
User avatar
Gaybutton
Posts: 21459
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Thailand
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 1306 times

Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Gaybutton »

The exchange rate is slowly moving toward 36 baht to the US dollar. If it makes it to that level, it will be the first time since January 2016. Fingers crossed folks. We have been waiting a very long time for the exchange rate wheel to turn in our favor. It would be great to see the rate get to 36, continue improving in our favor, and once it reaches its peak remain there for a very extended period of time. That would certainly be much more attractive to foreign tourists, not to mention those of us living in Thailand.
Jun

Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Jun »

Gaybutton wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:58 pm That would certainly be much more attractive to foreign tourists, not to mention those of us living in Thailand.
Last time I looked, the currency movement was more due to the dollar strengthening against a basket of currencies, rather than the baht weakening.
USD up ~7.8% against THB YTD
USD up ~10.6% against a basket of currencies, YTD

So obviously, the THB is also strengthening against the basket of currencies. So the thread title is a little misleading.

Now whilst that's very nice for those expats with income in USD, the percentage of foreign tourists who benefit is likely to be very small.
I think US tourists were about 4% of the total in 2019 ?
Maybe now up 1~2% after deleting Chinese tourists.

Slightly improved spending power among 5% of tourists is unlikely to lead to a spending boom, when the average tourist is probably getting a worse exchange rate.
gerefan
Posts: 727
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2010 6:33 am
Has thanked: 18 times
Been thanked: 87 times

Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by gerefan »

Jun is spot on.

In December I got 45.5 baht per GBP. Today I would get 42.7. https://ttexchange.com/

That’s a DROP of some 7%, in only 6 months, for us Brits.

Consider yourselves lucky!
Post Reply