Baht Continues to Weaken

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Undaunted
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Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Undaunted »

"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

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Gaybutton
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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Gaybutton »

Sounds REAL good to me . . .

Right now the exchange rate - US dollar to baht - is the most favorable it's been since May 2017.

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Jun
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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Jun »

I think this is more a case of the dollar strengthening than the Baht weakening.

In the last 12 months, the dollar index against a basket of currencies has gone from about 91 to 103, so a gain of 13%. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency

The baht has gone from 31.1 to 34.2 against the USD. So the dollar has only gained 10% here. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/currency

Implying the THB has strengthened slightly against the basket of currencies.

(Links are live, so the figures will obviously change after writing my post).

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by whitedesire »

I think this because interest rates are starting to take effect with currencies. The US is on course to hike them dramatically, this is going to affect a lot of countries who don't increase theirs for whatever reason.

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Gaybutton »

Today I was notified by Wise that my retirement benefit is coming in at 34.26 baht to the US dollar. As I mentioned in an earlier post, this is the best rate I've received since May 2017.

I don't understand anywhere near enough about economics to comprehend why this is happening. I'm not all that interested in delving into it. I just hope this trend continues. Last month my retirement benefit came in at 33.27. That may not seem like very much, but that slight difference puts several thousand more baht in my pocket than I received last month.

So, whatever is the reason for it, bring it on.


Perchik: "Money is a curse."
Tevye: "May the good Lord smite me with it."
- Paul Michael Glaser (Perchik), Topol (Tevye), 'Fiddler on the Roof'

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Jun »

Whitedesire listed one reason why the Dollar may have strengthened.

Another is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. When there's uncertainty, people retreat to the "safety" of the global reserve currency. A strange behaviour, but it becomes self-reinforcing. Also, I suppose the US has more domestic oil production than some other major economies, which is a good thing with people becoming less inclined to buy the stiff off Putin.
The latest sharp rise on the Dollar index graph starts on February 24th, so that ties up.

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Dodger »

Gaybutton wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:10 pm
I don't understand anywhere near enough about economics to comprehend why this is happening. I'm not all that interested in delving into it. I just hope this trend continues.
Same here.

Wouldn't it be great to see it hit 40 again like the old days?

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Undaunted »

Widespread implications of weaker baht:

https://www.pattayamail.com/thailandnew ... ons-397397
"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Gaybutton »

One thing I have learned not to do is pay much attention to the predictions by the experts about where the baht is going. Over the years I've almost never seen them get it right.

Along with the exchange rate becoming more favorable to us, I have noticed many significant price increases, so that definitely eats into it. Less than one hour before writing this message I filled my car and it cost me hundreds of baht more than last time. When I did that I was on my way home from shopping at Makro. I noticed the prices of several items have gone up, some just a few baht and some up enough to raise my eyebrows.

Fortunately for me, I can handle the increases, as I believe most reading this board can do, but I'll be damned if I know how minimum wage Thais are managing to do it.

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Jun »

Gaybutton wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 1:03 pm
Over the years I've almost never seen them get it right.
They will get the direction of movement right about 50% of the time.
Getting the magnitude right as well is far less likely.

Time spent reading exchange rate predictions is time wasted.

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