Baht Continues to Weaken

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Undaunted
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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Undaunted »

Dollar marches on:

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Gaybutton »

At the time of this post, the exchange rate using Wise is 36.3350.

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Jun »

Undaunted wrote:
Tue Jul 12, 2022 12:41 pm
Dollar marches on:
The USDEUR exchange rate is almost back to where it started.
As with various other currency pairings, the highest rate over the last 22 years is approximately double the lowest.

So if the THBUSD is currently trading at 36, I would assume that it's capable of moving an awful long way in either direction in the next 20 years. Of course it would need some economic shocks to either halve or double.
However, with one country being up to it's ears in debt and deficits and the other being run by an incompetent junta, don't rule that out.
Also, I'd apply the same logic to other currencies like the EUR, GBP etc.

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Gaybutton »

Jun wrote:
Tue Jul 12, 2022 4:29 pm
Of course it would need some economic shocks to either halve or double.
However, with one country being up to it's ears in debt and deficits and the other being run by an incompetent junta, don't rule that out.
Which do you foresee is most likely to happen - the exchange rate doubling or ending up half what it is now?

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Undaunted »

All the charts are relatively meaningless as the USD remains the world’s reserve currency and in times of strife the dollar is considered a safe haven thus its current strength.
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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Jun »

Gaybutton wrote:
Tue Jul 12, 2022 4:53 pm
Which do you foresee is most likely to happen - the exchange rate doubling or ending up half what it is now?
Predictions are difficult, especially about the future.

Right now, I think the USD is benefiting from both safe haven status AND raising interest rates faster and earlier than other major currencies. The interest rate differential ought to eventually reverse, for example, if it gets to a point where the US is cutting rates before other countries.

Long term, I don't see any reason at all to be optimistic about the USD or the GBP, since both countries seem to specialize in debt and deficits, backed up by money printing. A lot depends on government policy, however inflating away debts has to be tempting and that's not good for exchange rates.

The USD benefits from reserve currency status at present, but such things are not forever. I suspect it will remain the reserve currency for our lifetimes, unless, of course, the US makes a right hash of economic policy. Which is completely possible, as Trump demonstrated with debt fuelled stimulus.
The lack of a suitable alternative reserve currency helps maintain the status.
The Euro is a bodge, with different economies sharing one currency. I don't see that lasting 300 years.
The Chinese RMB is subject to exchange controls, plus question marks over governance.
The Japanese seem to be capable of printing off an unlimited number of yen.

Anything else lacks scale.

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by Dodger »

Jun wrote:
Tue Jul 12, 2022 7:05 pm

Predictions are difficult, especially about the future.
I agree. Predictions about the "past" are much less difficult and tend to be more accurate as well... :lol:

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

Post by 2lz2p »

Dodger wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:15 pm
Gaybutton wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:59 pm
That would certainly be nice. I haven't seen anything about that. If it happens, do you have any idea when that is supposed to start?
It will start in January 2023.

Even at a whopping 8.6% it's still not enough to offset the inflation Americans are coping with - but for us expats in Thailand it's a bonanza.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/social-sec ... ease-2022/
A recent article indicates it could be much higher - it all depends the consumer price index for the 3rd quarter. If inflation continues to increase in those months, then it will be a higher rate. The real figure will not be announced until at least October and go into effect in January 2023.

Here is a link to the article: https://money.yahoo.com/social-security ... 39728.html - some extracts:
Based on new inflation data through June, the cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits, or COLA, could be an increase of 10.5% next year, according to estimates from the Senior Citizens League
Social Security on track for huge cost-of-living increase . . .
The nonprofit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) puts that increase at 11.4% if inflation keeps trucking along as it currently is. And even if inflation cools, the CRFB estimates a 9% COLA, while the Senior Citizens League forecasts 9.8%.

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

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"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

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Re: Baht Continues to Weaken

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"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

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