Thailand to declare Covid-19 endemic in July. What does it really mean?

[Gaybutton]

There is plenty of publicity out there about Thailand's Ministry of Public Health's intention to declare Covid-19 an endemic disease at some point in July.

If they do, what does that really mean? What effect would that have on international tourism? Will it mean Thailand will open up and say come one, come all - and now you can merely get on a plane and come, just like before anyone ever heard of Covid?

Does it mean there will be significantly fewer people in Thailand getting Covid-19? Does it mean there will be significantly fewer people dying from it?

Will it mean all of the venues still forced to be closed will now be able to reopen? Will those of us living in Thailand be told "Ok, now you can stop wearing the face masks and you no longer need to use hand disinfectant"?

I have no idea what it really will mean or what changes, if any, to expect. What are YOUR thoughts about it?

[Jun]

The definition of endemic seems to differ slightly according to which source one reads.
According to one definition it is "constantly present in a region without external inputs".

By that definition or by any common sense interpretation, Covid IS endemic in Thailand already and has been for some time. Even if they shut the borders, it will not die out. Even China is proving that, despite some extreme measures.

So it's endemic whether or not the Junta recognise that.

What difference the declaring covid as endemic will make is difficult to predict.
Mainly because our predictions would attempt to use logic and common sense, whereas the Junta often doesn't apply any logic in setting policy.

Logically, they would drop all covid restrictions, with the possible exception of indoor mask wearing, which could be deferred for a while, whilst they monitor events.

In order to drop all covid restrictions, of course it would be better if they firstly increased the vaccination rate in the over 60s, for which various proven tactics would help [Persuasion, incentives and penalties for vaccine dodgers].
However, they don't bother with that very important measure and instead waste their time thinking about nonsense which will have a negligible effect on the covid death rate (rules on water splashing, inbound tourists etc).

[Gaybutton]

our predictions would attempt to use logic and common sense, whereas the Junta often doesn't apply any logic in setting policy.

Good point. That accounts for most of my "I Don't Get It" list . . .