More bad news for Pattaya

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Jun
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Re: More bad news for Pattaya

Post by Jun »

Pattaya Mail wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 5:06 am
He said Pattaya might not be able to open as scheduled if the province cannot build herd immunity by the deadline, adding that the situation in Pattaya is similar to the Andaman Islands, particularly with local tourists being restricted by the lockdown order.
What's this about a plan to achieve herd immunity ?
Previously I thought they were just aiming for some arbitrary target of 70% vaccinated. Which is not herd immunity, even with a good vaccine.

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Re: More bad news for Pattaya

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Jun wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 3:00 pm
What's this about a plan to achieve herd immunity ?
The person mentioning herd immunity is the acting president of the Chonburi Tourism Council. Somehow I don't see that job title as something that would qualify a person to proclaim anything medical.

And I too, with regard to herd immunity if such a thing truly exists, where this 70% of the population vaccinated comes from. Who says the idea of herd immunity is anything more than a myth? If herd immunity truly can be achieved, who says 70% vaccinated is the magic number, assuming these vaccinations really do make everyone immune to Covid?

The Bubonic Plague of the 14th century holds the record for being the most fatal pandemic in history. If nothing improves, it won't be long before Covid surpasses that record.

I wonder if Covid accounts for the 10th plague of Egypt . . .



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Re: More bad news for Pattaya

Post by Jun »

As a concept, Herd Immunity works. If people who are immune can no longer pass the disease on, then get enough people immune and any new outbreak will die out. I understand that works for other diseases, but it probably is influenced by the R value and vaccine efficacy.

As for covid, whilst the vaccines reduce our risk of catching symptomatic covid and do even better at preventing severe disease, the data on transmission is much less clear. Possibly as it's almost impossible to measure by conventional trials or even after vaccination of the wider population.

In the UK, we have one of the highest vaccination rates for a major country. 88.6% of the adult population fully or partly vaccinated & 69% of the total population. The UK regulator has not yet approved the vaccine for general use in under 18s and the remaining adults are slow in coming forward for vaccines.
The number of cases was increasing for much of July, but is now decreasing again, despite the removal of almost all restrictions.

So even at this level, I wouldn't say it's clear if we have herd immunity or not. That's with Astra Zeneca, Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

Thailand has a mix of low efficacy Chinese vaccines and Astra Zeneca. I would not be confident about herd immunity at 70% vaccination.

Also, theoretically, I think the original version of the virus was considered to have R=4, ie one person infects another 4, without any restrictions. The early herd immunity calculations seemed to work on needing something in excess of 75% of people immune to get R below 1 and get herd immunity. As we all know, the delta variant is considered to be more infectious. So surely the R value is higher ? Maybe difficult to measure, with vaccines and other restrictions in place. So I don't see how Thailand can assume herd immunity at 70% vaccination.

What seems clearer is that the UK vaccination programme has reduced the death rate dramatically. Down to something comparable to a bad flu outbreak & we don't shut the country down for those.

[No expertise in the topic claimed.]

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Re: More bad news for Pattaya

Post by Jun »

Gaybutton wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 4:15 pm
The Bubonic Plague of the 14th century holds the record for being the most fatal pandemic in history. If nothing improves, it won't be long before Covid surpasses that record.
According to Wikipedia, the bubonic plague is indeed the worst, at 75~200 million and 30~60% of the European population.
I presume they have no idea about the death rate in other regions, such as Asia, or "undiscovered" continents.

Covid ranks at 8th position on the list in absolute terms, but as a percentage of global population is very low. Covid would either have to get much worse or run for years to be any worse than Spanish Flu. Pandemics can be far worse than this one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

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Re: More bad news for Pattaya

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Jun wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 5:52 pm
As a concept, Herd Immunity works.
I certainly hope so - that is if Thailand ever gets around to getting enough people vaccinated - with a vaccine that actually works. I wonder if they even know how many people make up 70% of the population in Pattaya. I don't know the extent of where numbers will be counted. Will "The Dark Side" be included?

Another problem - whenever Pattaya reopens and businesses can operate normally, there is bound to be a major influx of workers from other provinces and possibly Laos, Cambodia, and Burma too, with a smattering from Vietnam. I wonder that will affect herd immunity.

I, for one, intend to continue the normal precautions at least until the number of cases dwindles down to an insignificant number and stays that way.

Maybe I'm just paranoid, but I don't trust anything we're told, I don't trust the efficacy of the vaccines, and I don't trust herd immunity.


Miller: "You don't trust anyone, do you?"
Stavros: "That is why I have lived so long."
- David Niven (Miller), Anthony Quinn (Stavros), 'The Guns of Navarone'

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Re: More bad news for Pattaya

Post by Jun »

Gaybutton wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 7:29 pm
I don't trust the efficacy of the vaccines, and I don't trust herd immunity.
Regarding efficacy, for western vaccines, there is enough independent data to show the vaccines are effective at reducing infections, severe illness and death. The trial data is independent of the manufacturer and there is no end of data from various countries showing the effect of vaccines in the population. With so many different countries publishing data, that gives me some confidence.

However, there is next to no data to show how well the vaccines perform preventing transmission. I think that is because it's very difficult to measure.
Therefore, how does anyone evaluate whether we will get herd immunity ? Other than perhaps monitoring the very few countries that have vaccinated enough people to get in the right ballpark ?

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Re: More bad news for Pattaya

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Jun wrote:
Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:08 am
Regarding efficacy, for western vaccines, there is enough independent data to show the vaccines are effective at reducing infections, severe illness and death.
I couldn't care less about data. When hardly anybody is getting Covid, that's when I'll trust the vaccines - no matter what data is supposed to convince me about.

Whatever I'll die of, it won't be because I became complacent and trusted data.

If you want to trust data, go ahead. As for me, regarding Covid I trust nothing. I don't trust data. I don't trust published data information. I don't trust anything we're being told. I don't trust the vaccines. Zero. Nothing.

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Re: More bad news for Pattaya

Post by whitedesire »

You are so right GB, this data does my head in, it's total rubbish. And I don't make a statement without substantiating it.

Recently listening to LBC the radio station, one doctor said the data shows the figures coming down, but from his experience, being on the field, he is still experiencing the same ratios, and that he was very busy and the data didn't really make sense or words thereof. That's good enuf for me.

The figures in the UK have come down because they ain't testing as many people because schools etc are out for the summer, and a few other things.

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Re: More bad news for Pattaya

Post by Jun »

whitedesire wrote:
Wed Aug 04, 2021 5:47 am
You are so right GB, this data does my head in, it's total rubbish. And I don't make a statement without substantiating it.
You haven't substantiated the statement that the data is total rubbish.

Here's some example data to support my last statement. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vacc ... ta-variant
I'll take a 92% reduction in hospitalization, which is, I think, 1/12th of the previous risk. Data from other countries is usually in the same ballpark.
I trust that this is somewhere near correct.

Referring back to the earlier Pattaya herd immunity discussion, I recently read an article where one of the US agencies estimated that vaccination of 80~90% of the population is needed to get herd immunity with the delta variant. Unfortunately, I cannot find the article to provide a link.

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Re: More bad news for Pattaya

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Gaybutton wrote:
Wed Aug 04, 2021 3:51 am
I couldn't care less about data. When hardly anybody is getting Covid, that's when I'll trust the vaccines - no matter what data is supposed to convince me about.
what do you think "data" is? how will you know "hardly anybody is getting Covid" if you don't have any data? if you don't understand the objectives of the vaccine programs how do you know when to "trust" them?
Gaybutton wrote:
Wed Aug 04, 2021 3:51 am
If you want to trust data, go ahead. As for me, regarding Covid I trust nothing. I don't trust data. I don't trust published data information. I don't trust anything we're being told. I don't trust the vaccines. Zero. Nothing.
I find this a truly worrying statement - if you can't find sources of information you consider to be reliable how do you make an informed decision about anything relating to Covid?
whitedesire wrote:
Wed Aug 04, 2021 5:47 am
Recently listening to LBC the radio station, one doctor said the data shows the figures coming down, but from his experience, being on the field, he is still experiencing the same ratios, and that he was very busy and the data didn't really make sense or words thereof. That's good enuf for me.
I find this truly worrying as well - one practitioner's ad hoc comments on a radio program or "words thereof" are "good enuf" to invalidate all other evidence?

I really don't know how to respond to these types of statements so I will just bow out of this discussion!


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I’m nervous now when people cough near me, I would be much more comfortable if they would far cough.

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