covid situation in Thailand

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gera
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covid situation in Thailand

Post by gera »

IMHO Thailand lost control of the outbreak. It has a good tracing system but cases pop out everywhere now and tracing becomes more or less meaningless. Vaccination campaign in Thailand mostly relies on Sinovac Chinese vaccine which has very low efficiency and will not make any difference. The other approved vaccine is from Astra Zenica. It is good but unfortunately has a rare but nasty (and sometimes deadly) side effect.
Luckily for most of the readers of this board it effects mostly younger folks. So if you come across AZ vaccine , take it. I have a crazy theory that the most favorable range of temperature for the virus spread is between 3 and 17C. From this perspective Thailand in much better position than Europe or US. Besides , the infection is seasonable, Thus I expect improvements in Thailand towards November irrespectivly what Thai government will or will not do. Right now Thailand needs two or three weeks strict lock down . Hopefully it will be implemented after Songkran.

gerefan
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Re: covid situation in Thailand

Post by gerefan »

gera wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:24 pm
. Right now Thailand needs two or three weeks strict lock down . Hopefully it will be implemented after Songkran.
Yep the rumour mills are going at full throttle!

It may happen a lot sooner than you think...see here
https://twitter.com/richardbarrow?prefe ... 9237154059

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Jun
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Re: covid situation in Thailand

Post by Jun »

If Thailand can get the Astra Zeneca vaccine, it should vaccinate as fast as possible.

Look at the numbers:
As for blood clots, the UK has had 7 deaths, after issuing 18 million AZN doses.
So 0.4 deaths per million people from blood clots, although we also don't know how many would have died of the same cause with no vaccine.
We have had 1861 deaths per million people from covid.

The number of daily deaths is falling dramatically due to the vaccine and we don't even need a calculator to see it's a huge net benefit.
Certain European countries will have had thousands of extra deaths due to suspending vaccination because their politicians cannot do simple comparisons.

When in Thailand, I thought it was remarkable how the spread of the virus was so slow, despite minimal restrictions. OK, they do some things well, like high compliance with mask wearing, hand gel everywhere and a temperature check to get into any public building. But overall, places like Bangkok were operating much closer to normal than we see back home.

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richsilver
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Re: covid situation in Thailand

Post by richsilver »

Gera, I'm glad you have a crazy theory that the favorable range for the virus is between 3 and 17C. However, there is absolutely no scientific evidence to support this. Additionally, no matter what you may think, the virus is not in the least bit seasonable. The virus has managed to seriously infect people in every country at every time of the year.

gera
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Re: covid situation in Thailand

Post by gera »

richsilver wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:59 pm
Gera, I'm glad you have a crazy theory that the favorable range for the virus is between 3 and 17C. However, there is absolutely no scientific evidence to support this. Additionally, no matter what you may think, the virus is not in the least bit seasonable. The virus has managed to seriously infect people in every country at every time of the year.
I follow very closely the research literature on the subject. There is a substantial statistical evidence regarding the range I indicated. As for the seasonality of the virus , it is now broadly recognized in scientific community. Of course, it does not mean that virus mysteriously appear and disappear according to the season. There are many factors involved. But the intensity of infection definitely depends on the season. By the way, it is not my first post on the subject matter on this board. Check it out. Many predictions which I made here actually came true.

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Gaybutton
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Re: covid situation in Thailand

Post by Gaybutton »

gera wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:25 am
I follow very closely the research literature on the subject.

Many predictions which I made here actually came true.
Ok, we can settle this argument right now. First, post links to some of that research literature. Second, point out the posts on which you made predictions that came true. No excuses, just substantiate what you say.

That way, nobody can dispute what you say. If you don't, then very sorry, but you won't have a leg to stand on.

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Re: covid situation in Thailand

Post by Jun »

gera wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:25 am
I follow very closely the research literature on the subject.
We all read. If you want to justify claims, please post links to the literature.

gera wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:25 am
Many predictions which I made here actually came true.
Many have not.

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