When the Covid-19 vaccine gets to Thailand ...

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Jun
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Re: When the Covid-19 vaccine gets to Thailand ...

Post by Jun »

Daleinpattaya wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:29 am
By sheer chance, thousands of vaccinated people will have heart attacks, strokes and other illnesses shortly after being injected. Determining if those ailments were triggered by a vaccine will require a sophisticated, highly coordinated effort by federal and state agencies, hospitals and drug makers. And any issues or problems that arise will need to be clearly communicated to a distrustful public that is awash in disinformation.
If I'm not mistaken, the US authorities require phase 3 trials of AT LEAST 30,000 people before they will approve any vaccine. It's the same in other democratic countries. But not in the kind of country where any opposition leaders get poisoned with or gunned down.

Obviously these trials involve comparing the results of people with the placebo group and the ones with the vaccine, typically at least 15,000 in each group. So if there are any significant abnormalities in response, death rate or whatever, it should be obvious with this kind of sample size.

Now, without any covid restrictions, perhaps 60~70% of the population might get covid and perhaps 1% of them may die.
15000 x 60% x 1% = 90 covid deaths.

I'm fairly sure if the 15000 vaccine group has 90 more deaths than the placebo group, this would be detected during the trial. Since Donald Trump does not control the process, we can rely on results being reported. When trials and approvals occur in several countries, the risk is further reduced.

We also have to remember, that the covid mortality rate for board members would be higher, due to age. So taking the vaccine is an easy decision.

Of course, there will be tribes of anti-vaccers spreading disinformation, as implied by the New York Times. I shall ignore them and just do the maths.

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Re: When the Covid-19 vaccine gets to Thailand ...

Post by Bangkokian »

Bangkokian wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:27 pm
CNN is still reporting the Oxford/ Astra Zenica vaccine as being paused.
News from U.K. today that the UK Government is preparing to enact laws that permit it to release the Oxford vaccine as an emergency (bypassing EU laws) to be administered before Christmas.
First to be administered to N.H.S. medical staff and carers
I would add as a caveat that the report comes from the UK's Mail Online site which has been known in the past for making up/ exaggerating health stories.
If true Donnie will be spitting feathers.

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Re: When the Covid-19 vaccine gets to Thailand ...

Post by Jun »

Bangkokian wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:01 pm
News from U.K. today that the UK Government is preparing to enact laws that permit it to release the Oxford vaccine as an emergency (bypassing EU laws) to be administered before Christmas.
1 I would have thought it would make sense just to allow or request a "large scale trial", after a review of existing data.

2 The UK left the EU in January. Whether the transition agreement requires the UK government to follow EU law for vaccine distribution is a question. I presume even that expires on 1 January.

3 A few weeks ago, the Astra Zeneca CEO had said results could be submitted for approval as early as October. Perhaps that schedule is slipping. Once the data is submitted, the government should require the regulator to assess the data in the shortest reasonable time. Perhaps they should be asked to work 6 days a week until it's done. That should focus minds.

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Re: When the Covid-19 vaccine gets to Thailand ...

Post by Bangkokian »

Jun wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:11 pm
Bangkokian wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:01 pm
Perhaps they should be asked to work 6 days a week until it's done. That should focus minds.
And they are not???

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Re: When the Covid-19 vaccine gets to Thailand ...

Post by Jun »

The previous post is attributing my quote to Bangkokian and vice versa.

I imagine the UK regulators normally work no more than 5 days a week, which is normal. Probably in the 35~40 hours per week range & I would doubt it's at the top end of the range.

The government just needs to come up with the right incentives set to ensure the regulators check the data quickly and thoroughly, without interfering with their decision. It cannot take that long to review properly collated data from a few thousand people.

Also, what the regulators consider is another matter. e.g.:

1 Does the vaccine meet all normal requirements for approval, as would be applied to any vaccine in normal times ?

If NO, I think they then need to consider the following:
2 Is the vaccine lower risk than the alternative ? The alternative may be continuing covid deaths, economic damage etc, until another vaccine is ready for approval. This would be more difficult to evaluate. If the approval is on this basis, presumably low risk people would avoid the vaccine.

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Re: When the Covid-19 vaccine gets to Thailand ...

Post by Up2u »

So good news from Pfizer in the NYTimes. 90% efficacy but distribution will be a challenge.

Pfizer’s Early Data Shows Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective https://nyti.ms/35eBHY9

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Re: When the Covid-19 vaccine gets to Thailand ...

Post by catawampuscat »

Speculation among some expats that the Astro- Z vaccine will be available in Thailand at very affordable prices, early next year.
This vaccine showing very good results for the over 70 y.o.

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Re: When the Covid-19 vaccine gets to Thailand ...

Post by Jun »

The Oxford Astra Zeneca is showing a good "immune response" in people of a certain age. I believe this normally means a presence of antibodies & I guess they check how other parts of the immune system are responding*.

The phase 3 trials will also need to report on how effective the vaccine is in actually preventing Covid-19 and on all the side effects.
AFAIK, 2 other "western" vaccines have reported on effectiveness in preventing covid and none have reported on side effects during phase 3.

If it is licensed after these trials, within a few months, availability in Thailand should be near certain, due to licensing contracts. The price could be very low, as it's something like £5 a dose in Europe, from what I've read. So expat speculation could be well founded in this case.


*This is a strictly non professional interpretation.

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Re: When the Covid-19 vaccine gets to Thailand ...

Post by Gaybutton »

Jun wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:59 pm
The price could be very low, as it's something like £5 a dose in Europe, from what I've read.
I'm wondering if one dose will be enough. I'm guessing it will be necessary for at least one booster dose later, mo matter which vaccine is used. Also, I'm wondering if the vaccine takes effect immediately, days later, weeks later, or what.

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Re: When the Covid-19 vaccine gets to Thailand ...

Post by Jun »

Good point. The Oxford Astra-Zeneca phase 3 trial is giving people 2 doses, at an interval of 4 weeks.
Even at 2 doses, I expect it's still affordable for expats, as long as the price is not marked up too much.

I think there's some kind of antibody response after something of the order of 2~3 weeks.

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