Good news (kinda-sorta) and bad news - Again

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Good news (kinda-sorta) and bad news - Again

Post by Gaybutton »

Thailand is talking about reducing the number of required quarantine days from 14 to 7 - if there are no Covid-19 cases among the first couple sets of incoming tourists once they complete the current 14-day quarantine requirement. However nothing has changed regarding the rules and hoops to jump through in order to be a "special" tourist in the first place.

The other piece of news is Thailand's Covid-19 powers-that-be want to extend the emergency decree, which is currently set to end September 30, for another month and continue the decree through October.
_________________________________________________

Shorter quarantine if tourist test succeeds

by Dusida Worrachaddejchai

September 25, 2020

A seven-day quarantine for foreign tourists can be put into effect in November if the first batch of inbound tourists in October is clear of coronavirus infections, says the Tourism and Sports Ministry.

After next Tuesday's cabinet meeting, the government will announce more details of the special tourist visa (STV) that will allow long-stay visitors, the first international arrivals in almost six months, to enter the country by Oct 1, said Tourism and Sports Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn.

If the first two groups of 300 foreigners complete the 14-day quarantine on Oct 15 and Oct 21 without a positive case, then the ministry plans to propose an increase in the number of tourists per week by Nov 1.

"Only 300 tourists per week will not be enough to fill up the whole supply chain and help operators," Mr Phiphat said. "However, the figure has to comply with the capacity of the healthcare workforce from the Public Health Ministry to prepare swab tests."

For instance, the Phuket Provincial Public Health Office can provide swab testing services of up to 1,000 tests per day.

The ministry has spoken with private hospitals about providing more health personnel to support the virus testing process at airports, or allowing groups of tourists to get the test at alternative state quarantine facilities instead to disperse the flow of tourists at the terminal.

If the tourism plan runs smoothly, the ministry will consider shortening the quarantine period to seven days in mid-November, Mr Phiphat said.

He said tourists will still have to complete two swab tests, a strip test and a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test.

"In the event there are five positive cases from 300 tourists, the plan to welcome foreigners has to move forward anyway," Mr Phiphat said. "But we will set up new alternative plans to cope with the situation."

Meanwhile, the Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) summarised the tourism situation to Mr Phiphat after representatives visited Chiang Mai, Phuket, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Udon Thani and Rayong to hear about local operators' problems and seek solutions.

TCT president Chairat Trirattanajarasporn said the government must urgently deliver help to operators so they can bounce back stronger from the crisis.

The council estimates that when global tourism returns to normal, international arrivals to Thailand will hit 60 million, contributing 25% of GDP by 2023.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/19 ... t-succeeds
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State of emergency set to be extended through October

Sep 24, 2020

A Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) panel on Thursday said the government should extend the emergency decree for another month. The decision will be discussed by the CCSA next Tuesday before being considered by the Cabinet on Wednesday (September 30).

The current emergency decree will end on September 30.

The panel said an extension was needed to ensure cooperation and faster work in combating the virus crisis by government agencies.

The CCSA highlighted the surge of Covid-19 infections in neighbouring Myanmar, where the daily number of new cases has soared above 500.

The CCSA said it will also discuss plans to open the country to foreign travellers under the Special Tourist Visa (STV), which should be available soon.

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/303 ... l_referral

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Re: Good news (kinda-sorta) and bad news - Again

Post by gera »

Possible shortening of the quarantine is bad news. Incubation period is up to 14 days with high probability (in a small number of cases it was longer than that). Thus, it poses a significant risk of spreading the virus in Thailand. Secondly, there is absolutely no way that anybody from countries like US would be allowed in with 7 days quarantine (with the exception perhaps of government officials). They obviously try to target short term visitors from countries like China where the virus is contained. But the more people they will allow with a short quarantine period the higher the probability they will get the virus.

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Re: Good news (kinda-sorta) and bad news - Again

Post by Gaybutton »

gera wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:34 pm
the more people they will allow with a short quarantine period the higher the probability they will get the virus.
That's what I'm afraid of. I think while most people want to see a restoration of the tourist industry, too soon and too fast would be a mistake.

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Re: Good news (kinda-sorta) and bad news - Again

Post by Jun »

600 is not an appropriate sample size on which to make decisions.

I know of certain countries with an infection rate of 1 in 500 that are increasing domestic restrictions to control the spread. I presume Thailand might try to go for countries with lower infection rates, say 1 in 1000, 1 in 2000 etc.
So, one sample of 600 people might have a totally different result to the next 600. It's like rolling dice. Try sample sizes of 60,000 and it might mean something.

Also, hardly anyone is going to show up from China, as they have quarantine in Thailand, then when they go home, it's 14 days quarantine in China, in a quarantine hotel. Most people in China don't get enough holiday to squander 28 days in quarantine.

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Re: Good news (kinda-sorta) and bad news - Again

Post by christianpfc »

It's a bit premature talking about reducing quarantine from 14 to 7 days for STV holders (and for other visa holders as well?) before the first tourist has arrived, even before the STV has been fully approved and all details published!

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Re: Good news (kinda-sorta) and bad news - Again

Post by gera »

Jun wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 3:43 am
Also, hardly anyone is going to show up from China, as they have quarantine in Thailand, then when they go home, it's 14 days quarantine in China, in a quarantine hotel. Most people in China don't get enough holiday to squander 28 days in quarantine.
Guess what, long term visa has been approved and the first 150 visitors will be from China to Phuket. Another interesting category approved are foreigners who are willing to stay for at least 60 days (need to present 6 month banking statement with equivalent of 500000 baht or more). I still see as the biggest problem the lack of commercial flights.

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Re: Good news (kinda-sorta) and bad news - Again

Post by Gaybutton »

gera wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:19 am
150 visitors will be from China to Phuket.
150 Chinese who have the equivalent of 500,000 baht and want to stay in Phuket for at least 60 days? I'll have to see it to believe it.

From what I understand commercial flights is not the issue. I believe they all would have to come on charter flights or private aircraft. For charter flights I could see that working for a week or so for some sort of package deal in which everybody arrives on the same day and departs on the same day. But for at least 60 days? 150 people who all will want to return on the same day? I don't see that working well at all.

And if during those 60 days something happens that makes it imperative for someone in the group to return home immediately, how is he supposed to get there? Well, I suppose from Thailand it is possible to walk to China . . .

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Re: Good news (kinda-sorta) and bad news - Again

Post by gera »

Gaybutton wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:45 pm
gera wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:19 am
150 visitors will be from China to Phuket.
150 Chinese who have the equivalent of 500,000 baht and want to stay in Phuket for at least 60 days? I'll have to see it to believe it.

From what I understand commercial flights is not the issue. I believe they all would have to come on charter flights or private aircraft. For charter flights I could see that working for a week or so for some sort of package deal in which everybody arrives on the same day and departs on the same day. But for at least 60 days? 150 people who all will want to return on the same day? I don't see that working well at all.

And if during those 60 days something happens that makes it imperative for someone in the group to return home immediately, how is he supposed to get there? Well, I suppose from Thailand it is possible to walk to China . . .
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/19 ... from-china

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Re: Good news (kinda-sorta) and bad news - Again

Post by gera »


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Re: Good news (kinda-sorta) and bad news - Again

Post by Jun »

Gaybutton wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:45 pm
150 Chinese who have the equivalent of 500,000 baht and want to stay in Phuket for at least 60 days? I'll have to see it to believe it.
There are a lot of wealthy Chinese, as despite being run by a "Communist Party", wealth is very unevenly distributed. I even see some of the students being quite happy to splash their money around on £600 Burberrry coats and other expensive goods.
The 500,000 baht side of it will not be a problem. Whether they can find many willing to stay for at least 60 days is another question. Many will be too keen to get back to their businesses in China, but there must still be a few ready to enjoy life.

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