Speculate Here

Anything and everything about Thailand
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Gaybutton
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Speculate Here

Post by Gaybutton » Sun May 10, 2020 3:20 am

Whether Pattaya, Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Phuket, or anywhere else in Thailand, everyone has their own ideas about what to expect from the bar scene, boys, apps, restaurants, tourism, exchange rates, disease control tactics - whatever - if you wish to post your own predictions, Thailand should do this or that, businesses, bars, etc. should do this or that - any of those sorts of things - this is the topic on which to do it.

Speculate away, folks . . .

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Re: Speculate Here

Post by 2lz2p » Sun May 10, 2020 10:41 am

Hopefully, by December, things will be better and Santa can come visit :D :


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Re: Speculate Here

Post by Jun » Sun May 10, 2020 5:45 pm

SPECULATION, as per thread title.

In a no vaccine scenario, I envisage the countries Thailand first permits inbound tourists from would be Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand & China. Of course, this is a two way thing, so those countries need to permit outbound travel.
Japan, North America & Europe may have to wait a while longer.

I suspect there would be minimal testing in places like Myanmar & Cambodia, so perhaps Thailand might choose to keep border restrictions in place. How effective these would be is another question. The photo shows a picture I took from the bridge at the Mae Sot border. On the right is Myanmar and on the left is Thailand. Anyone crossing the river by boat can bypass all the border checks.

As for vaccines, I have no idea which vaccine would be first to market. [We probably have 2 types of contributor, those who don't know and those who KNOW they don't know]. What I did note was UK advisor Mr Van Tam saying that elderly people would most likely be vaccinated first, which makes sense. Healthcare professionals & a few others might be even higher up the queue.

I wouldn't think Thailand would be first in line for a vaccine, since I haven't read much about a local vaccine programme and the country is unlikely to have the biggest budget for this. On the other hand, they might just be more prepared to risk a Chinese vaccine if one is available.

If Thailand's infection rate shows any kind of correlation with reality, "herd immunity" must be at a much lower level than in Europe or the US. Although, remarkably, as far as I know hardly any countries have published a proper estimate to show what percentage of the population have had Covid-19. However, with low "herd immunity", Thailand will need to keep some kind of lower level restrictions in place for many months.

On the other hand, with 20% ? of the economy reliant on tourism, there will be pressure to open that up as soon as possible.
Also, psychology might adjust in time, as people are already used to dealing with other infectious diseases.

As for bars etc. Well, I would like to think the successful bars will be most likely to survive. The ones who were making money before the shutdown will have more of an incentive to reopen.

Perhaps it might just be the right kind of incentive for some to innovate and make more effort to attract customers, with interesting entertainment and so on. Cute lads on stage, wearing very little and trying to entertain would be good.
However, I fear that's too optimistic. In practice formats I enjoyed, such as Euroboys gogo & Funnyboys have closed some time ago.

Once upon a time, it was fairly easy to wander into a bar in Siem Reap and take your pick from about a dozen or so cute freelancers working there. In more recent times, that's got way more difficult, primarily as all the Khmer lads seem to have moved to Pattaya. How that evolves in future depends on which borders remain closed.

Also, remember that an increasing proportion of working lads seem to be from Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, with the first 2 of those countries being more common. Under normal circumstances, I would expect that trend to continue, as Thais become more wealthy and the younger Thai generations have an increasing prevalence of obesity. Walking past educational establishments, I cannot help but notice the problem.

However, these are not normal circumstances, so if borders remain closed, then we might see fewer people from neighbouring countries for a while.
Also, if the service economy has a severe recession, I expect some Thai workers might be prepared to try a wider range of activities to earn money.

As for currency, well the global reserve currency is the USD. At present. Trump also has an election coming up, so I predict pressure to print money and prime the system & to hell with the long term consequences.

I like gold, since they cannot print it.

I also try to arrange my affairs to reduce the risk of exchange rate movements, since I know that I don't know what will happen. Over time, there can be huge movements in exchange rates. Most of us can think of examples.

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Re: Speculate Here

Post by Gaybutton » Sun May 10, 2020 7:44 pm

Jun wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 5:45 pm
those countries need to permit outbound travel.
They also need to permit inbound travel so the travelers can return home.

You mentioned a picture at the from the bridge at the Mae Sot border, but it does not appear in your post.

If and when a vaccine does become available, my own speculation is Thailand will not permit travelers to enter unless they can show proof they have been vaccinated. I also think Thailand would require farang living here to be vaccinated and show proof. I just hope it won't be cost prohibitive.

As for the bars, for years I have been pushing for the bars to try innovative ideas to attract customers. That fell on deaf ears at every bar except All of Me. He tried a few ideas, but none worked well enough to attract enough customers to keep the bar going. All of Me was a beer bar, not a go-go bar.

If the go-go bars want to attract customers, I think their only chance would be innovative ideas that hopefully will work. As far as I'm concerned, the first thing they can do is turn down the music volume.

Based on past history, I have no reason to think the bars will do anything other than what they have always been doing and they're not going to change a thing - with the possible exception of raising their prices. Whatever they do, I hope it will be enough to attract customers. Otherwise, I think the only thing we all will end up doing is remembering the bars.

I hope that doesn't happen, but we've all seen what already did happen to most of the go-go bars over the past several years. For some strange reason, I can't help thinking of Agatha Christie's novel, "And Then There Were None" . . .

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Re: Speculate Here

Post by Jun » Sun May 10, 2020 8:40 pm

Here's the Mae Sot border pic. The boats were going directly across the river.
Admittedly, when I took the bus out of Mae Sot, there was a police checkpoint, where they boarded the bus, checked most passports and one person had to get off. So crossing the border isn't the only hurdle.
One thing is clear, with a very useless & incompetent government, I wouldn't trust any virus stats from Myanmar. I imagine the Thai authorities would take a similar view.
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It's been some time since I've encountered excessive music volume in a Pattaya gogo bar. Winner Boys sometimes has lower music volume than coffee shops & is at the point where it's difficult to hear the music above the conversation of other customers.
Lucky Boys Bangkok is way too loud.

I think you're right about bars not changing a thing. Which I've never really understood. If investing in a business and it's obviously underperforming, then iterate until things do pick up. Or try to figure out what works by looking at other bars, whether they be gay, straight, 100km up the road, on You Tube or whatever else.

As for proof of a vaccine, if administered by the UK NHS, I hope they're going to be providing proof to individuals, but I wouldn't count on it. If I end up paying for my own somewhere, then of course proof would be provided.
My best case scenario is having a vaccine AND taking a long holiday in Thailand in the winter. However, I don't have high confidence in this.
Second best would be discovering I've already had it, without symptoms and have antibodies. That needs an antibody test.
I notice tests are being marketed, but the following private medical practice claims 99.9% sensitivity, without stating anything about specificity. Buyer beware !
https://www.citydoc.org.uk/covid-19-home-testing-kit/

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Re: Speculate Here

Post by a447 » Tue May 12, 2020 12:00 am

I doubt there will ever be a vaccine.

The best we can hope for will probably be various ways to treat the symptoms.

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Re: Speculate Here

Post by bao-bao » Tue May 12, 2020 12:14 am

I suspect that since many virus seem to be able to mutate quickly finding ONE vaccine may be like trying to nail JELL-O to a tree. I agree with a447 that effective treatments may be the best we can expect.

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Re: Speculate Here

Post by Jun » Tue May 12, 2020 5:07 am

I have heard experts say this particular virus does not mutate quickly. That was a few weeks ago, so I don't have a link.

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Re: Speculate Here

Post by Gaybutton » Tue May 12, 2020 4:15 pm

While many have been speculating about what will happen with the bars, something I have not seen mentioned - the saunas. How would they maintain social distancing in a place such as Babylon in Bangkok or Sansuk in Pattaya - if they will reopen. What would even be the point of going to a sauna if you can't hook up with someone and use one of the private cubicles?

With the current weather in Pattaya, if all you want is a steam room, no problem. All you have to do is just step outside . . .


"The days of our kind are numbered."
- Nicol Williamson (Merlin), 'Excalibur'

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Re: Speculate Here

Post by Jun » Tue May 12, 2020 7:26 pm

My general impression from various countries is that saunas have been losing popularity, probably due to phone apps. Particularly amongst the younger generation.
Berlin, with a big gay scene, is down from at least 3 saunas to 1 in the last 10 years.
London had about 5~6 saunas that I know of, but these are increasingly neglected and it's rare to see anyone young and in good shape there. Admittedly, my chances of scoring would be near zero, but it's nice to have someone to look at whilst sat in the Jacuzzi.
I think the Sansuk has a big problem with it's target market. Many tourists go to Thailand to meet youngsters from the Asean countries and the pricing obviously discourages them from going there. No bait means few customers.

The virus is only going to accelerate this trend. A damp dark environment would be bad for the spread of this. Perhaps the hot dry sauna might be free from it, but since everyone spends most of the time elsewhere in the building, it's going to be high risk overall.

I don't anticipate visiting a sauna until I have near zero risk of getting the virus. ie I am immune (vaccine, or infection) or it's almost eliminated.

I do anticipate relaxing my guard much earlier on some other measures. For example, dating ONE lad is much lower risk than going to a crowded sauna.

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