Covid 19 Pattaya Update

Anything and everything about Thailand
Post Reply
User avatar
Jun
Posts: 2875
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:20 pm
Has thanked: 383 times
Been thanked: 187 times

Re: Covid 19 Pattaya Update

Post by Jun » Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:59 pm

I think you both could be missing the point here, which is one of probabilities.

Wearing a mask is unlikely to be 100% effective or 0 % effective.
If we consider that all of the world recommends mask use in hospitals and an increasing proportion recommends mask use outside hospitals, that backs up this view on the probabilities.

IF my FFP3 mask reduces my probability of infection by 50%, that would be very interesting.

Also, probabilities will affect my decisions on other matters.
For example: Assuming I get to make a decision on travel to Thailand later in the year, I'll assess the risk at that time. Thailand may well be lower risk than staying here, but obviously I need to factor in the travel and the much increased "socialising" element (slight steer back to topic).

The alternative of not doing do probabilities is to go around worrying about death from shark bites & asteroid strikes (abandons steer back to topic).

User avatar
Undaunted
Posts: 2286
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:47 am
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 315 times

Re: Covid 19 Pattaya Update

Post by Undaunted » Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:23 am

Covid update April 21:

"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

Dodger
Posts: 1594
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:58 am
Has thanked: 35 times
Been thanked: 375 times

Re: Covid 19 Pattaya Update

Post by Dodger » Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:57 pm

This is twice in one day that I've heard about those bat-eating Chinese virus breeders, and the prospects of them returning to Thailand for holiday.

Can people really be this stupid?

User avatar
Jun
Posts: 2875
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:20 pm
Has thanked: 383 times
Been thanked: 187 times

Re: Covid 19 Pattaya Update

Post by Jun » Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:28 pm

If the Thai government chose to believe China's virus figures, China would be one of the first countries they start allowing tourists in from. [I don't believe the figures from China]

Taiwan is the only obvious one higher up the list -low infection rates AND the figures would be reliable.

User avatar
Undaunted
Posts: 2286
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:47 am
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 315 times

Re: Covid 19 Pattaya Update

Post by Undaunted » Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:20 pm

Thailand News Today April 21:

"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

gera
Posts: 262
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2018 6:46 pm
Been thanked: 18 times

Re: Covid 19 Pattaya Update

Post by gera » Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:22 pm

Dodger wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:57 pm
This is twice in one day that I've heard about those bat-eating Chinese virus breeders, and the prospects of them returning to Thailand for holiday.

Can people really be this stupid?
Perhaps it is worthwhile to make several points.
1. Undoubtedly , Chinese (and perhaps Koreans) will be among the first to be allowed to travel in Thailand. In fact, this is already actively discussed within Thai tourist industry. E.g. , Cambodia never restricted the travel from China but bans arrivals from US and Europe.

2. People from countries like UK and US should forget about possibilities of traveling to Thailand this year. In fact, I doubt that any country (including Europe) will allow travelers from UK.

3. The numbers from Thailand do not correlate with numbers from the rest of South East Asia which is essentially a new hot spot for epidemics (which is consistent with rainy-flu season in the area). Therefore , I do not believe in Thai numbers (probably they do not do enough testing). Thus, up to November any kind of travel to Thailand is hardly safe anyway.
4. Face masks are definitely helpful. It is finally realized even in places like US. Many leading epidemiologists attribute the relative success of countries like Korea and Taiwan to omnipresent use of surgical masks in crowded areas. Statistically, it is obvious anyway.

User avatar
Jun
Posts: 2875
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:20 pm
Has thanked: 383 times
Been thanked: 187 times

Re: Covid 19 Pattaya Update

Post by Jun » Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:06 pm

gera wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:22 pm
In fact, I doubt that any country (including Europe) will allow travelers from UK.
Do you have any factual or logical basis for reaching such a conclusion ? If so, please share it.

The UK death rate per capita is below several EU countries, including Belgium (worst), Italy, Spain and France.
The number of deaths is leveling off, just as in other EU countries with lockdowns and for that matter, Sweden with minimal restrictions.
Hospital admissions in London are falling and leveling out in other regions.

User avatar
Undaunted
Posts: 2286
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:47 am
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 315 times

Re: Covid 19 Pattaya Update

Post by Undaunted » Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:35 am

Covid Update April 22: https:

"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

Dodger
Posts: 1594
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:58 am
Has thanked: 35 times
Been thanked: 375 times

Re: Covid 19 Pattaya Update

Post by Dodger » Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:39 pm

These daily Updates are appreciated and at least give us a thumbnail sketch of what's going on, but the numbers they're showing us don't tell us much of anything.

Just reporting the number of people who failed the test in Thailand, or a given province, without also reporting how many tests were performed, is a pretty meaningless number.

The only meaningful number is the Failure Rate (%) (percentage of test failures as compared to the total number of tests performed).

For instance: There were 19 reported cases yesterday, and they only tested 19 people yesterday, the results would indicate a 100% failure rate. But, if they tested 1,000 people yesterday and 19 failed, the results would indicate a 1.9% failure rate.

Mock Headline (Just for Fun)
"Nakon Rachisima Reports ZERO cases".

Nakon Rachisima doesn't have any test equipment...never has... and admittedly, wouldn't know how to use it if they did, but somehow they seem to be managing. The people with high temperatures and bad coughs are carted up to their local village medical huts and provided a daily supply of locally-grown herbs and these small crushed mushrooms which apparently stop people from thinking too much. The village bosses meet regularly and decided early on that social distancing restrictions were simply not necessary due to the length of the straps used to control the movement of the water buffalo's when the farmers are working their fields. Those who are unemployed primarily sit around all day and drink Thai whiskey, which, according to the village elders, can kill any virus the Chinese can throw at them. Nakon Rachisima has recently had all COVID-19 restrictions removed by the government due to their outstanding performance, but are apparently running out of mushrooms.

User avatar
Jun
Posts: 2875
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:20 pm
Has thanked: 383 times
Been thanked: 187 times

Re: Covid 19 Pattaya Update

Post by Jun » Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:49 pm

Dodger wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:39 pm
Just reporting the number of people who failed the test in Thailand, or a given province, without also reporting how many tests were performed, is a pretty meaningless number.

The only meaningful number is the Failure Rate (%) (percentage of test failures as compared to the total number of tests performed).
I agree on the first point.

However, even the failure rate as a % is pretty meaningless unless there is a large random sample.
If a country tests 1000 people who have strong Covid symptoms, the failure rate will be very high. If they test 1000 people who are observing the social distancing rules, the failure rate will be very low.

As far as I know, the vast majority of countries have no accurate indication of what percentage of the population has had the disease, including all the asymptomatic cases. That's one reason why we get such wildly differing estimates about infection rates and herd immunity.

Accurate data would be useful when deciding how to relax lockdowns.

Post Reply