Looking at the Bright Side

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Gaybutton
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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Gaybutton » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:27 pm

Jun wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:18 pm
the majority of the experts I've seen commenting expect immunity and expect that immunity to be fairly long lasting. This doesn't mean they are right.
Of course not. All they can offer right now is an educated guess. For me, that is not very encouraging. I'm not interested in somebody's guess or opinion, no matter how much of an expert he might be. It's still nothing more than an opinion.

"My lord, I am taken by surprise that my learned friend would try to elicit from the witness an opinion and not a fact."
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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Dodger » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:28 pm

It's getting BRIGHTER by the moment:

The newly released $2 trillion dollar U.S stimulus package will result in 96% of Americans receiving a check, as mentioned previously in this thread.

According to the information provided in the link below, retired Americans living abroad who are collecting social security also qualify.

The magic number seems to be around $1,200 for single homo's like us. With the current exchange rate, that's around 40,000 baht of mad money.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronav ... swers.html

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Gaybutton » Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:40 pm

Dodger wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:28 pm
It's getting BRIGHTER by the moment
As for the $1200, I think I qualify for it, but I'm not counting my chickens before they hatch. When it's in my bank account, that's when I'll get excited about it.

Another thing that would really be a bright side for me would be if they start saying a good way to prevent getting the virus would include shaving off those scraggly mustaches and beards. For me, that's a nice dream that's not going to happen . . .

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Jun » Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:00 pm

Gaybutton wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:27 pm
Of course not. All they can offer right now is an educated guess. For me, that is not very encouraging. I'm not interested in somebody's guess or opinion, no matter how much of an expert he might be. It's still nothing more than an opinion.
The experts do know a hell of a lot about viruses these days. To the extent where they can sequence the virus and do things like working out which part of the virus to attack and so on.

Judgements which take into account the type of virus and experience with something similar have a much higher probability of being correct than some random guess. Still not certain, but I think the odds are good.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Dodger » Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:25 pm

Gaybutton wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:27 pm
I'm not interested in somebody's guess or opinion, no matter how much of an expert he might be. It's still nothing more than an opinion.
An international school teacher asks a question: "What's your own opinion on food scarcity in other countries?"

**An African student:** What's food?

**A European student:** What's scarcity?

**An American student:** What are 'other countries'?

**A Chinese student:** What's 'my own opinion'?

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Gaybutton » Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:14 pm

Jun wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:00 pm
a much higher probability of being correct than some random guess.
A guess is still a guess. The fact is even the most expert of the experts are saying they are not sure.

Just like HIV, at least for now the safest thing to do, along with the hygiene precautions, is to behave as if anyone you come in contact with has it.

It is virtually incredible to me that this whole thing got started when some schmuck in China decided a nice meal would be to eat a bat, or whatever it was.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by gera » Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:34 pm

If 60 percent of population get immunity for 2 months, the epidemic will be stopped.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Jun » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:02 pm

gera wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:34 pm
If 60 percent of population get immunity for 2 months, the epidemic will be stopped.
How do you calculate that ?

By my reckoning, at an R0 of 2.5, 60% of the population is sufficient to only stop the growth in the number of cases. If their immunity only lasted 2 months, there would be reinfections.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Gaybutton » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:17 pm

Jun wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:02 pm
If their immunity only lasted 2 months, there would be reinfections.
Isn't that the problem? As far as I can tell, nobody knows yet how long immunity would last, whether it would be the same amount of time for everyone, whether everyone who gets the disease and recovers would now be immune, or even if there would be immunity at all.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by gera » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:00 pm

GB, technically speaking , you are correct. But in reality there is already certain data coming from China regarding reinfection levels. There is an anecdotal evidence that the reinfections occur but it is rare. You hopefully do not want me to discuss here mathematical models? ( I can , I am a professor of Applied Mathematics). And yes, the models are of probabilistic nature they do not guarantee anything 100 percent. But practically 60 percent of immunity for two months would be enough. In one of my posts I mentioned Regeneron pharm which is working on medications of this type
and their approach is not based just on natural antibodies. That is where I see the best hope.

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