Looking at the Bright Side

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Jun
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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Jun » Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:18 am

gerefan wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:45 am
Isn’t there a case for just letting them go and preserve the world for the younger generation?
I would be rather more sensitive about it than that.

Current UK policy has requested the over 70s to isolate at home for 12 weeks, whilst the majority of the rest of the population have restrictions in place for 3 weeks (as it stands).
Whilst this may have been a little late in starting, I can foresee a situation where they are attempting to restart the economy later next month, whilst the over 70s have a couple more months of isolation ahead.
I think that might just strike the right sort of balance between protecting the most vulnerable and not completely screwing up the economy for the rest of the population.
Although I'm slightly surprised the measure isn't extended down to people older than 65, or even 60.

They should also be wary of pessimistic counting. Using the UK as an example, Covid-19 is a notifiable disease, so all deaths of people with this are reported and counted as Covid deaths, even when they were likely to imminently pass away from another severe health issue. We don't want distorted decision making, just because this is one of the few notifiable diseases and it's being watched.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by lukylok » Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:19 am

Completely wrong thinking.
Killing all the people above 70 will liberate very few beds in hospitals, and not stop the epidemic.
The older people are not the source of infection, they stay at home, but the younger irresponsible who think they are invulnerable.
You will still be sick, and it is not sure the prognostic will be better.
And the hospitals will not be able to cope - mainly in the US thanks to Trump who dismantled all the protection.
Is one life worth one cent in a balance sheet ?
You must be christian !

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Gaybutton » Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:23 am

gerefan wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:45 am
and for what?

To give a few people in their 70s and 80s a few more years of life.
Whatever you were drinking when you posted that, send a case of it to me . . .

Hospital staff: "How old are you?"
Virus Victim: "I'm 69."
Hospital staff: "Ok, we'll take good care of you."

Hospital staff: "How old are you?"
Virus Victim: "I'm 70."
Hospital staff: "Sorry, you're fucked!"

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by gera » Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:38 am

it is an absurd , nonsensical idea to suggest that only people older than 70 are dying. The picture is much more complicated (e.g. who is viping?
Young? Very high chances of dying). More importanly recall the arithmetic. if probability of dying is 0.1 percent and 3 billion get sick, you have 3 million dead right there. Only idiots like Boris Johnson can think about such scenarios.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Dodger » Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:59 am

Jun wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:43 pm
1 The 1200 figure is based on measurements and what has been declared.
The vast majority of countries with Covid are generally considered to have 10x the number of reported cases, or a much higher multiple, as insufficient tests have been done. These include most European countries, the US & Japan. I would suspect Thailand is similar.
You raise a good point.

I know the Thais are very reluctant to go the doctor, let alone a hospital, even under normal circumstances. The estimate that there may be 10X more cases than those actually being reported seems very plausible.

The experts seem to be suggesting that it's possible for a person to recover from the virus without receiving any medical treatment, which throws yet another set of variables in the mix. I'm not sure I'm buying this one, but for countries to come up with even close estimates of the actual number of cases is a dart toss by a drunk Irishman at best.

Even at 10X higher, the number of cases in Thailand would only be 0.017% of the population. If you had a map of Thailand with little red dots signifying corona cases across the provinces, you'd need a magnifying glass to see them.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying this thing isn't serious - because it is, but with all the media drama, I think it's a good idea to step back, put things in perspective, and not freak out over something that has a 99.98% probability of not affecting you if you just take the normal precautions, i.e. don't go to any rooster flights, kick back and chill for a while, and if he has a cold, doggy style with him on the bottom is recommended.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by ceejay » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:03 am

Expert opinion is that possibly a substantial majority of cases will recover without medical treatment, even without symptoms. In the UK the advice, even in households where there has already been one victim, is to self isolate and not seek medical assistance unless the symptoms become severe.
I believe the estimates of how many will recover after having only mild symptoms or no symptoms are based on the known epidemiology of other, similar, viruses, so it is not exactly a dart throw. You also have the experience of countries like Germany. Germany has a much more extensive testing regime than most countries, and also has one of the lowest death rates per confirmed case, compared to countries that only test those with severe symptoms. That gives some substance to these estimates.
On 1st March, there were 1701 confirmed cases in Italy (about 0.0028% of population.. As of yesterday, 26 days later, there were 86,500 (about 0.14%). a 50 fold increase. There have now been 9134 deaths, including 919 yesterday. That is the sort of exponential growth that the Thai government's measures are intended to interrupt, and it is worth interrupting. The very high death rate is partly due to a different testing regime, but partly due to the Italian system being overloaded and running out of key equipment and specialist hospital beds. Slowing down the spread would mitigate this sort of overloading. How long would it take for the Thai Public Health system to overload?

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by 2lz2p » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:27 am

gerefan wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:45 am
To give a few people in their 70s and 80s a few more years of life.
Depends on whose ox is getting gored as the saying goes. Let's say folks over 70, like moi, would most likely not agree with this viewpoint.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Dodger » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:59 pm

gerefan wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:45 am
The world is being turned upside down, the economy is being ruined, people’s livelihoods are being destroyed and for what?

To give a few people in their 70s and 80s a few more years of life.

Is it really worth it? .
Maybe you should ask that question to a few people who are 70-80 years old and see what kind of answer you get.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Undaunted » Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:05 pm

I believe at the moment you are much safer in Pattaya than the U.K. or USA however, I do believe this is only the calm before the storm :!:
"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Jun » Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:08 pm

Dodger wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:59 am
Even at 10X higher, the number of cases in Thailand would only be 0.017% of the population. If you had a map of Thailand with little red dots signifying corona cases across the provinces, you'd need a magnifying glass to see them.
OK, let's assume 12,000 cases, based on 10x the number declared.

If it grows at 20% a day, which is typical in many western countries, it is 3.4 million in one month.
In the second month, growth tails off as the majority of the population are infected.

Therefore, countries introduce controls well before it gets to that stage. Hence all the lockdowns. Compound growth can be very damaging.

Then perhaps 5% of people need hospital treatment, where there will be a shortage of equipment. In Spain, we hear reports of people over 65 being kicked off the ventilators, as they are prioritising the younger people. I read Italy had published guidelines about prioritising in a similar way. The probability of surviving ventilator treatment is apparently higher for younger customers.

The death rate for over 70s is near 15%. Worse for smokers.

So I would think carefully about where case numbers might be in the near future & assess where one might be in the queue when it comes to prioritising medical equipment.

Then decide what precautions to take.

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