chinese deadly coronavirus

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Jun
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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Jun »

Dodger wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:49 am
It appears as if the Health Minister is preparing to cover his ass when the virus escalates in Thailand, by blaming the "farang", as always.
He may try, but any rational observer should realize that the virus originated in China. Possibly as a result of disgusting conditions in animal markets.

I remain amazed at the slow growth rate in declared cases in Thailand, compared with other countries. Approximately a week or 10 days ago, Thailand was #2 on the list behind China.
Thai numbers went up on just one day since, whilst other Asian countries have a steady increase.
Why is Thailand doing better than places like Japan and Singapore ? Would it be better hygiene and better social cohesion and discipline in complying with recommended precautions ? Ie The exact opposite of what I might expect.
Are there issues with detection and reporting ?
Or some other reason ?

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

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I am likewise concerned at the lack of reported cases in Thailand. Are people with symptoms being tested for the virus?
If the government is adopting the three monkeys approach, and the virus spreads undetected, then the presence of the virus will come out as tourists returning home test positive in their own countries. This will be very damaging for the tourist industry in Thailand.
I have been waiting to book a holiday in April. I have watched the price of flights falling but I have not booked.
I now think I won't go. I don't want to get sick and I don't believe Thailand is safe any more.

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by RichLB »

Finnseventy wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:53 pm
I now think I won't go. I don't want to get sick and I don't believe Thailand is safe any more.
Everyone must do their own risk assessment, but look at your odds of getting sick from the virus. Thailand has a population of 69,000,000 people. As of today there have been 32 cases detected in Thailand, 23 Chinese and 9 Thais (all of whom have ties to Chinese). Of these 32 cases, 10 have been released from hospital (cured?). There have been no deaths from the virus in the Kingdom. Assuming all the remaining 22 cases remain ill(hardly realistic) , that brings your chances of illness to 22 out of 69,000,000. I'm betting your odds of being hit on the head by a falling coconut are higher.
I don't want to minimize what is clearly a major world crisis, but I wouldn't let it change how I wish to live my life - although I don't think I'll be touring Wuhan any time soon.

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Dodger »

RichLB wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:27 pm
Finnseventy wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:53 pm
I now think I won't go. I don't want to get sick and I don't believe Thailand is safe any more.
Everyone must do their own risk assessment, but look at your odds of getting sick from the virus. Thailand has a population of 69,000,000 people. As of today there have been 32 cases detected in Thailand, 23 Chinese and 9 Thais (all of whom have ties to Chinese). Of these 32 cases, 10 have been released from hospital (cured?). There have been no deaths from the virus in the Kingdom. Assuming all the remaining 22 cases remain ill(hardly realistic) , that brings your chances of illness to 22 out of 69,000,000. I'm betting your odds of being hit on the head by a falling coconut are higher.
I don't want to minimize what is clearly a major world crisis, but I wouldn't let it change how I wish to live my life - although I don't think I'll be touring Wuhan any time soon.
Rich...I agree with everything you said.

I just always find myself doubting any numbers (or statistics) that Thailand puts out. Reported cases of coronavirus in Thailand does nothing but cost them money, and whenever money comes into play, my trust goes right out the window.

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Undaunted »

Yes! I think everyone should stop coming.......how sweet it would be for us that live here!......I still remain amazed at the difference it makes driving around Pattaya without the pig carriers.
"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Jun »

The reporting on Thai cases is certainly not complete.

When the latest batch of 7 cases was announced, the Bangkok Post reports that one of them was evacuated from Wuhan, was initially quarantined and is in hospital somewhere in Chonburi.
That gives the impression of everything being under control.

However, we are left guessing about the other 6. No information about the location or anything. I think it was similar in the previous batch. I presume the Bangkok Post publishes everything available to it.

Even communist China appears to be supplying information about the location of the cases.

So I am suspicious about 3 points:
1 Low growth rate in case numbers, compared with other Asian countries

2 Saving case numbers up and declaring them in batches, or so it appears. Possibly so at least one of the cases has some narrative demonstrating everything is under control.

3 No information about the location of cases. This is hardly being open. Also, it makes it more difficult to detect inaccurate reporting of figures.

I hope my suspicions are unfounded.

Very few Chinese around now. Unfortunately we still have the obnoxious Arabs.

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by gerefan »

Actually I was beginning to think the number of Arabs had reduced. There are certainly many ex Arab shops which now seem to be vacant. And the number of motor bikes circling Yensabai and Sunee seems to be less.

Look forward to Ramadan...it’s only 2 months off.

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Jun »

Well today at the beach, the lady providing a nearby massage asked her customer "where do you come from ?". The answer was "Guangdong".

The lady carried on delivering the massage, obviously resisting any temptation to rush off and use some hand sanitizer.

I checked the wind direction and was pleased to find I was not downwind of the leper colony.
I briefly considered drawing a map of the concession in order to know which loungers to avoid tomorrow. Of course, this is ludicrous, as the mattresses will probably all be mixed around tomorrow.

Meanwhile, it seems the authorities have decided not to declare any more cases in Thailand today. I need to crunch the figures, but am sure that calculation would show a much lower growth rate in cases in Thailand than other Asian countries. Along with a comparatively good recovery rate.
All I am missing is a good hypothesis to explain this comparative outperformance. Admittedly, I am no expert in viruses.

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Jun »

Here's a link to an article in The Guardian regarding UK transmission. Way more informative than what I read in the Bangkok Post. Would be interesting to know if the Thai language papers are any better.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... via-france

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

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