chinese deadly coronavirus

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Gaybutton
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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Gaybutton »

Undaunted wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:47 am
Looking on the bright side:

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/18 ... -stay-home
The last paragraph of that article says:
The WHO on Friday upgraded the coronavirus outlook to an international concern in light of the rising death toll in China and reports of more infected people in more than 20 other countries. And while it said it did not think travel bans were necessary, numerous airlines have suspended or reduced flights to and from China.
That makes it seem to me that the WHO is contradicting itself. If the virus is now an international problem, why would they say the travel bans are not necessary? It is common knowledge that the virus got its start in China and now there are thousands of cases and hundreds of deaths. How do they think the virus managed to spread to other countries? The virus didn't walk to other countries. It was brought by infected Chinese.

While the vast majority of Chinese don't have the disease and are not carrying it, still it seems absurd to me for Chinese to be traveling, even within China, until this disease is brought under full control.

In my opinion, first contain and eradicate the disease, then rescind the travel bans. First one, then the other.

I hate to admit it, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I'm with Undaunted in that, for us, a silver lining on the cloud is now there are hardly any tour buses plaguing traffic in Pattaya - for the first time in years - and the baht weakening as a result of all this.

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Jun
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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Jun »

Travel restrictions on Chinese seem like an obvious move. The alternative is transmission to other countries, potential further spread and a death rate of 2%.

The baht has weakened and certain Asian investment trusts are trading at a 52 week low. Anyone wanting to invest in Asia might think about starting next week. This may well not be the bottom, but it's probably better to start dripping money in, than keep waiting and miss the bottom.

My best estimate is this will have a limited long term economic impact. Even if China lost 2% of it's population, apparently the deaths are amongst the oldest people or those with other health issues. Generally, these are not the people driving economic growth.
Please don't interpret this the wrong way. I know most of us are past 50 and some by a big margin. It's just accepted that economies with a younger demographic tend to grow faster and older people are less likely to set up businesses. Also, investment needs to be based on fact, not emotion.

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Dodger »

Jun wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:45 am
My best estimate is this will have a limited long term economic impact. Even if China lost 2% of it's population, apparently the deaths are amongst the oldest people or those with other health issues.
It's not the loss of 2% of its population that will have a long term impact on the economy - it's the loss of 2% of their GDP.

If the virus can also spread by an infected person simply making direct contact with a tangible item, then the Chinese exports could also be transmitting the virus, which, in theory, could paralyze their exports, thus crippling their economy. If it comes down to these exports being scrutinized (quarantined), China would almost certainly have to rely on increased imports, and their GDP would plummet.

I'm really surprised I haven't seen or heard anything mentioned about Chinese exports relative to the coronavirus. Could the global economy be at stake???

Here's an interesting Wall Street Journal article which touches on the subject:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronaviru ... 1580458591

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Jun »

Dodger wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:44 am
It's not the loss of 2% of its population that will have a long term impact on the economy - it's the loss of 2% of their GDP.
The 2% loss of population is unlikely to be long term. If the majority of deaths are for very old people or those with other health problems, it follows that in 10 years time, a good proportion of the 2% would have passed away even without the virus. Deaths amongst this group will also have less influence on national birth rates.
Also, not all age ranges generate the same gdp.

I guess the short term effect might be much more than 2% of gdp and the long term effect much less than 2%.

On the other hand, if every infected person infects 4 others and this becomes a global problem, this might run for some time.

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Undaunted »

Death outside of China: https://cnn.it/394jV8T
"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Dodger »

Undaunted wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:52 am
Death outside of China: https://cnn.it/394jV8T
Thanks for the link.

Well, we can say goodbye to those Chinese tour buses for a while which is a good thing for Thailand's environment.

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Gaybutton »

Last few Chinese tour groups in Thailand and Pattaya departing in the next several days

By Adam Judd

February 3, 2020

The Thai government has stated that the last few Chinese tour groups in Pattaya and Thailand are scheduled to depart in the next several days, many this evening.

The Chinese tour groups still in the country arrived prior to the Chinese government banning outward bound tour groups on January 26 due to concerns of a potential spread of the novel Coronavirus ravaging the country.

In Pattaya, The Pattaya News has observed a few groups this morning still in the city, but the vast majority are nearly gone. Bali Hai Pier stood nearly empty last evening at sunset, a time when there are normally thousands of tourists and tour buses.

The health of all the members of the tour groups have been monitored by tour guides and travel officials during their stay.

Many businesses in the Pattaya area that rely on Chinese tourists, such as speed boat tours, seafood restaurants, tourist attractions like the Floating Market and Sanctuary of Truth, cabaret shows and more are changing direction during the ban to focus on attracting other tourists to the venues and offering specials and promotions.

Some businesses, like the seafood restaurant boats in Pattaya Bay, are shutting for at least a month.

Individual tourists from China are still allowed to travel to Thailand, albeit under strict health checks and restrictions.

Story and photos: https://thepattayanews.com/2020/02/03/l ... eral-days/
___________________________________________________

I wonder how long it will be until . . .


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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

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Such a nice difference driving around town without these pig carriers :!:
"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Dodger »

The coronavirus is already having an impact on the Thai Baht.

With tourism expected to take a nose dive due to the loss of the Chinese tourists (among other factors), the Thai Baht, which is now at a 7 month low, could, according to experts, reach 32.5 per U.S. dollar in the current quarter

The finance ministry just slashed its 2020 growth outlook to 2.8% from 3.3% as a result of this.

More baht for my dollar, and fewer Chinese tour buses...works for me!

See Bangkok Post Article Here:

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/18 ... ns-tourism

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Undaunted »

"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

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