chinese deadly coronavirus

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Jun
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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Jun » Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:59 pm

The following paper by Imperial College London is interesting. See link. NOTE: THE LINK WILL DOWNLOAD A PDF FILE & MAY SHOW A BLANK PAGE IN YOUR BROWSER. LOOK IN THE DOWNLOAD FOLDER
Anyone with pushed for time could skip to the graphs & select the relevant text.

Thoughts
1 Although it is unsaid, quite a few western countries must be considering the "herd immunity" issue, as most have not implemented any controls until Covid is already transmitting at some pace within their countries. For example, most of western Europe and the US.

2 If recurrence is a high risk, then are places like China and Korea going to maintain some strict controls until vaccines are available ? China now has 14 day quarantine for most international arrivals. As long as that remains in place, it's going to kill off outbound tourism.


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... 9qC2xTRHVd

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Gaybutton » Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:46 am

At least 400,000 infections expected

By Apinya Wipatayotin

18 Mar 2020

Widespread transmission will slow down until the number of infected cases per week peaks between January and February next year. At least 400,000 people will be diagnosed with Covid-19 this year and next, with the peak period expected to be during the next cool season, according to Sophon Iamsirithavorn, chief of the Communicable Disease Division.

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"Going by this forecast, we are confident that the outbreak can be kept under control and medical treatment will be manageable. We don't expect infections to exceed one million as long as we have close cooperation from the public," he said.

The first, and best case, scenario forecast by the division is based on an assumption that one patient will transmit the disease to 1.6 new patients which would result in 400,000 new cases by the end of next year, according to Dr Sophon. In this case, the virus would ultimately settle down to become endemic and a seasonal disease like the flu.

However, Dr Sophon stressed that this assumes that state measures designed to prevent people coming into contact with the virus, such as bans on large gatherings of people and putting those from virus-hit areas in quarantine, prove effective.

A second estimate putting the rate of transmission at 1.8 would see Thailand struck by 9.9 million cases by the end of 2020.

Widespread transmission would slow down until the number of infected cases per week peaks between January and February next year.

A third, unlikely, scenario would see measures to control the spread of the virus prove ineffective resulting in rapid transmission at a rate of 2.2 new cases per infection with 37.4 million cases of Covid-19 in Thailand diagnosed over the same period. Dr Sophon, however, believes the country's efforts to control the spread of the disease make this estimate more of a worst-case scenario than a realistic projection.

In each instance, the expected number of critical cases is 5% with a death rate of less than 2%.

Dr Sophon was referring to a March 8 report by the Emergency Operation Centre, also under the Department of Disease Control using statistics compiled from global data since the beginning of the outbreak.

The study also noted that only 45% of those diagnosed with Covid-19 on the Diamond cruise ship went on to show symptoms and needed treatment.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/ge ... s-expected

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by gera » Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:39 pm

One of the problems in creating a vaccine for coronavirus is that it is difficult to do trials using animals , since they are not affected by it. Regeneron farms uses a specific modification of the immune system of a mice that create human like response to this virus. The extractions from several types of antibodies produced in this way are used to produce a specific medication. It can be used as a short-time vaccine creating the immunity which can last for a couple of months. This is just one example of the innovative approaches used by various biotech companies working to tackle the epidemics.
Let us hope that at least one of literally hundreds of efforts in this direction succeed. Without effective remedy or vaccine this epidemics cannot be stopped until a sizable part of the population ( 60 percent by some estimates) get sick.

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Gaybutton » Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:56 pm

gera wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:39 pm
One of the problems in creating a vaccine for coronavirus
Another problem - even if they come up with a vaccine, won't they need to make enough of it to immunize every human on the planet? I wonder how long that would take.

If they do manage to create a vaccine, I hope it won't be difficult to get or prohibitively expensive.

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by gera » Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:13 pm

Gaybutton wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:56 pm
Another problem - even if they come up with a vaccine, won't they need to make enough of it to immunize every human on the planet? I wonder how long that would take.

If they do manage to create a vaccine, I hope it won't be difficult to get or prohibitively expensive.
These are important issues. But keep in mind that so far no specific medication or vaccine had been developed for any kind of coronavirus (including the ones that cause a usual cold).

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Jun » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:03 pm

They are already testing coronavirus vaccines on humans, including in the US.

I believe it's still going to be the best part of a year away, if following normal approval rules. However, considering the risk of NOT having a vaccine is higher than normal, presumably the approval rules may be adjusted.

I've not read anything suggesting a vaccine should be more expensive than a flu vaccine.

As for treating the whole world, I guess the usual rich nations will get it and the others will depend on aid. [That's how I think it WILL be, not how I think it SHOULD be]
Also, rumour has it that Trump wanted a vaccine "only for the US", so his objective is clear. As he's an obvious danger to the entire planet, I'm really disappointed that his COVID test was OK. https://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-us-wr ... a-52777990

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Gaybutton » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:27 pm

Jun wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:03 pm
I'm really disappointed that his COVID test was OK.
That makes two of us, and you can throw in Mike Pence and Mitch McConnell too.

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by gerefan » Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:00 pm

Bangkok Post wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:46 am

A second estimate putting the rate of transmission at 1.8 would see Thailand struck by 9.9 million cases by the end of 2020.

A third, unlikely, scenario would see measures to control the spread of the virus prove ineffective resulting in rapid transmission at a rate of 2.2 new cases per infection with 37.4 million cases of Covid-19 in Thailand
Exactly the sort of hype that nobody needs...these people need to be silenced.

To be clear I do not mean you Gaybutton, I mean the original author.

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Gaybutton » Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:37 pm

gerefan wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:00 pm
To be clear I do not mean you Gaybutton, I mean the original author.
Ok. I edited the quote so that now it shows Bangkok Post as the author. I doubt anybody really thought I was the author.

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Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by gera » Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:00 pm

There are dozens of vaccines that are currently developed. There is absolutely no guarantee that any of them succeed. The one developed by NIAID and the company called Moderna (currently in the first phase of trial ) is based on novel principles. And though it is based on previous work related to vaccine for SARS , it is unclear whether they will succeed. Another interesting research (jointly Pfizer and Biontech) do not use samples of the virus itself,
as typical vaccines do (in either dead or weakened form, to jump-start the body's natural defences) but instead relies on RNA to kickstart the production of proteins similar enough to the virus that they trigger the body's development of antibodies effective against the actual target. The hope is that AT LEAST one of these and other attempts succeed. If Trump or anybody else can deliver it , I am all for it. And he definitely did not try to buy anything for American use only. Total bullshit coming out of Germans who are as nervous as anybody else about the current epidemic.

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