chinese deadly coronavirus

Anything and everything about Thailand
Post Reply
User avatar
Gaybutton
Posts: 21459
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Thailand
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 1306 times

Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Gaybutton »

gera wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:01 pm do not worry for youngsters. They will be fine.
Once again that is not the point. And while they likely will be fine, there is no guarantee they will be fine.
Jun

Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Jun »

Gaybutton wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:41 am Once again that is not the point. And while they likely will be fine, there is no guarantee they will be fine.
There is no guarantee any of us will be fine.

I had to look this up, but males in my age range have a 1 in 279 chance of dying in the next 12 months, without Covid.
That's 0.035%.

The death rate for under 30s who have Covid is 0.2%.

Now I don't go around worrying about my 0.035% of dying from other causes, so the bar boys shouldn't go around worrying about their 0.2% probability, for a disease that they haven't yet caught. As it happens, youngsters tend not to worry.
User avatar
richsilver
Posts: 206
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 6:22 pm
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Been thanked: 41 times

Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by richsilver »

Here are some useful links to stay up to date with the corona virus situation. Let's all stay healthy by frequent hand-washing, avoiding crowds and staying home if you're not feeling well.

This is a very interesting, real-time virus tracker showing all the cases in Thailand: https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en

The WHO provides daily, detailed situation reports for Thailand: https://www.who.int/…/novel-coronavirus ... on-reports
User avatar
Gaybutton
Posts: 21459
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Thailand
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 1306 times

Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Gaybutton »

Nothing about what happens if you are driving and just passing through on your way to a different province or if you weren't planning to stay in the province for 14 or more days.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Governor of Buriram tightens protective measures in the province, will screen all visitors foreign and domestic

By Adam Judd

March 16, 2020

Provincial governor Thatchakorn Hatthathayakul has ordered tighter restrictions and measures designed to help protect the province, using the designation of Covid19 as a dangerous disease and existing laws on file to do so.

He becomes the first governor in Thailand to take independent action and has the full legal right to do so.

The province has no confirmed cases of the virus at this time, although has had several suspected cases.

The restrictions involve all people entering the province, both foreigners and Thai Nationals, to take a health check at entry and then report on a regular basis to local authorities for fourteen days. Thai’s will report to local village elders and headsman, Foreigners will be directed to hospitals and government offices. This is regardless if one is a local resident. Anyone with a fever will be sent to a local hospital.

Buri Ram officials will be at all major roads and travel routes, including trains, into the province to enforce the Governor’s order.

The order also limits gatherings to fifty people or less, including religious activities. It does not close venues specifically, however venues are asked to control their number of patrons. Places where large amounts of people gather, such as markets, have been asked to close, however temporarily if they cannot control the number of people.

The order does not, however, “lockdown” the province or close all venues as some media has incorrectly reported, as people are free to come and go but must follow the reporting procedures and checks as requested by local authorities when they do so.

Violators of reporting properly or submitting information to the local authorities will be subject to legal action, the Governor added.

https://thepattayanews.com/2020/03/16/g ... -domestic/
________________________________________________________________________


Buri Ram province locked down

Fever check, self isolation for all entering the province

16 Mar 2020

BURI RAM: Provincial governor Thatchakorn Hatthathayakul has ordered a lockdown of the province to combat the spread of Covid-19 disease, applying public health measures to implement the decision.

The governor announced the move on Monday. He said it was aimed at containing the coronavirus outbreak, even though the province had no cases of infection so far.

The lockdown took immediate effect and is possible under health regulations since Covid-19 was declared a dangerous communicable disease last month. The declaration gives health authorities power to make any decision to prevent the spread of the virus, and the governor used this to exercise his power.

The announcement will have an extensive effect on tourism and other businesses. All people entering the province - both foreigners and local residents - will be required to undergo strict screening and then self isolation for 14 days. Authorities and volunteers will check up on them. Those with fevers will be sent to hospitals.

All activities gathering more than 50 people in one venue - including seminars, entertainment events, religious ceremonies, summer courses and talad nad (roaming markets) - are banned for 30 days, or any further change.

"Violators will be subject to legal action," governor Thatchakorn warned.

Buri Ram is the first province to implement a lockdown without waiting for a government order.

The province is the new home of Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who is a deputy prime minister and the Bhumjaithai Party leader. He has moved his address from Bangkok to Buri Ram to stay close to his right-hand man, Newin Chidchob, considered one of the most influential figures in the party.

Mr Thatchakorn said the lockdown was necessary, before the province was damaged by the disease.

"We have to sacrifice organs to save lives," he said, using a Chinese saying in refering to businesses that will be affected by the decision.

The governor urged people to cancel plans to visit their families during the Songkran holiday, to prevent the further spread of the virus. "If you care for your parents, please do not travel during Songkran, to stop Covid-19," he said.

The government will also defer the traditional New Year holiday from next month to later dates.

Mr Newin also posted a message on his Facebook account, giving his support for the lockdown of his home town. He said Buri Ram must be kept safe.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/ge ... ocked-down
gera

Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by gera »

I found it is absolutely amazing: this guy, health minister moved to Buriram and closed it! Before that for a couple of months he was basically bullshitting and doing nothing to prevent an epidemic. The current situation requires an urgent action and he is running away. Keep in mind, that without his party support Prayut government losing majority.
User avatar
Undaunted
Posts: 2567
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:47 am
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 368 times

Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Undaunted »

Buriram initiates partial shutdown:

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/buri ... l-lockdown
"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"
User avatar
Undaunted
Posts: 2567
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:47 am
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 368 times

Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Undaunted »

Image
"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"
Jun

Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Jun »

The following paper by Imperial College London is interesting. See link. NOTE: THE LINK WILL DOWNLOAD A PDF FILE & MAY SHOW A BLANK PAGE IN YOUR BROWSER. LOOK IN THE DOWNLOAD FOLDER
Anyone with pushed for time could skip to the graphs & select the relevant text.

Thoughts
1 Although it is unsaid, quite a few western countries must be considering the "herd immunity" issue, as most have not implemented any controls until Covid is already transmitting at some pace within their countries. For example, most of western Europe and the US.

2 If recurrence is a high risk, then are places like China and Korea going to maintain some strict controls until vaccines are available ? China now has 14 day quarantine for most international arrivals. As long as that remains in place, it's going to kill off outbound tourism.


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... 9qC2xTRHVd
User avatar
Gaybutton
Posts: 21459
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Thailand
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 1306 times

Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by Gaybutton »

At least 400,000 infections expected

By Apinya Wipatayotin

18 Mar 2020

Widespread transmission will slow down until the number of infected cases per week peaks between January and February next year. At least 400,000 people will be diagnosed with Covid-19 this year and next, with the peak period expected to be during the next cool season, according to Sophon Iamsirithavorn, chief of the Communicable Disease Division.

Image

"Going by this forecast, we are confident that the outbreak can be kept under control and medical treatment will be manageable. We don't expect infections to exceed one million as long as we have close cooperation from the public," he said.

The first, and best case, scenario forecast by the division is based on an assumption that one patient will transmit the disease to 1.6 new patients which would result in 400,000 new cases by the end of next year, according to Dr Sophon. In this case, the virus would ultimately settle down to become endemic and a seasonal disease like the flu.

However, Dr Sophon stressed that this assumes that state measures designed to prevent people coming into contact with the virus, such as bans on large gatherings of people and putting those from virus-hit areas in quarantine, prove effective.

A second estimate putting the rate of transmission at 1.8 would see Thailand struck by 9.9 million cases by the end of 2020.

Widespread transmission would slow down until the number of infected cases per week peaks between January and February next year.

A third, unlikely, scenario would see measures to control the spread of the virus prove ineffective resulting in rapid transmission at a rate of 2.2 new cases per infection with 37.4 million cases of Covid-19 in Thailand diagnosed over the same period. Dr Sophon, however, believes the country's efforts to control the spread of the disease make this estimate more of a worst-case scenario than a realistic projection.

In each instance, the expected number of critical cases is 5% with a death rate of less than 2%.

Dr Sophon was referring to a March 8 report by the Emergency Operation Centre, also under the Department of Disease Control using statistics compiled from global data since the beginning of the outbreak.

The study also noted that only 45% of those diagnosed with Covid-19 on the Diamond cruise ship went on to show symptoms and needed treatment.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/ge ... s-expected
gera

Re: chinese deadly coronavirus

Post by gera »

One of the problems in creating a vaccine for coronavirus is that it is difficult to do trials using animals , since they are not affected by it. Regeneron farms uses a specific modification of the immune system of a mice that create human like response to this virus. The extractions from several types of antibodies produced in this way are used to produce a specific medication. It can be used as a short-time vaccine creating the immunity which can last for a couple of months. This is just one example of the innovative approaches used by various biotech companies working to tackle the epidemics.
Let us hope that at least one of literally hundreds of efforts in this direction succeed. Without effective remedy or vaccine this epidemics cannot be stopped until a sizable part of the population ( 60 percent by some estimates) get sick.
Post Reply