Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

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Dodger
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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Dodger » Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:33 pm

Below is a cut n' paste from the Coronavirus thread:

The coronavirus is already having an impact on the Thai Baht.

With tourism expected to take a nose dive due to the loss of the Chinese tourists (among other factors), the Thai Baht, which is now at a 7 month low, could, according to experts, reach 32.5 per U.S. dollar in the current quarter

The finance ministry just slashed its 2020 growth outlook to 2.8% from 3.3% as a result of this.

More baht for my dollar, and fewer Chinese tour buses...works for me!

See Bangkok Post Article Here:

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/18 ... ns-tourism

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Jun
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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Jun » Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:44 pm

With the weak baht and weakening Asian stock markets, it could be a time to think about rebalancing towards Asia, in stages.
Meanwhile, parts of the US market have gone barking mad:
https://images.app.goo.gl/tz2daUfQzsZGwoGH6

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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Dodger » Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:05 pm

Jun wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:44 pm
With the weak baht and weakening Asian stock markets, it could be a time to think about rebalancing towards Asia, in stages.
Meanwhile, parts of the US market have gone barking mad:
https://images.app.goo.gl/tz2daUfQzsZGwoGH6
The recent easing of trade tariffs by China on U.S. imports seems likely to strengthen the U.S. dollar, giving us yanks and even better exchange rate for Thai baht. At least, that's what I'm hoping for.

The baht is continuing to weaken each day..yeah!

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Jun
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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Jun » Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:44 pm

Thailand cut interest rates on Wednesday. Probably a factor in the weakening baht.

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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Dodger » Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:32 pm

Jun wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:44 pm
Thailand cut interest rates on Wednesday. Probably a factor in the weakening baht.
It will be interesting to see what happens to the Chinese yuan.

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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Gaybutton » Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:48 pm

Dodger wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:05 pm
The baht is continuing to weaken each day..yeah!
Where are you getting that from? I get the TT rate. It weakened from 30 to 31 baht to the US dollar after the Corona virus and ban of Chinese tourists got started and has been hovering between the two, weakening and strengthening, ever since. Not my idea of a particularly dramatic weakening of the baht.

https://www.scb.co.th/en/personal-banki ... tml#fxrate

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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Up2u » Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:09 am

The baht was at 31.3 at the time I posted. That's what I would get if I did TransferWise transfer and 31.2 if I did an ATM Withdrawal.

https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/co ... USD&To=THB

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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Dodger » Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:20 am

Gaybutton post_id=99245 time=1581083336 user_id=2]

Where are you getting that from?
The baht has been on a steady decline since December, which started before the coronavirus hit the news. The chart on the link below shows this dramatic shift.

Highest: 31.327 THB on 07 Feb 2020.
Average: 30.422 THB over this period.
Lowest: 29.695 THB on 31 Dec 2019.

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/USD-TH ... story.html

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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Gaybutton » Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:18 am

Baht keeps strength despite coronavirus outbreak, economic decline

Feb 19, 2020

The Thai economy in 2020 would expand at a much lower rate than previous forecast and way below its full potential, mainly due to the combined impact from the coronavirus outbreak, delay to enactment of the Annual Budget Expenditure Act and drought on a large number of businesses and employment, according to the minutes released today by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand .

On February 5 , the committee voted unanimously to cut the policy rate by 0.25 percentage point from 1.25 to 1.00 per cent, in a bid to shore up the economy.

Regarding exchange rates, the committee said although the Thai baht depreciated somewhat in recent days , it remained potentially inconsistent with economic fundamentals. During inter-meeting period, the currency depreciated against the US dollar. The baht also depreciated against regional currencies as reflected by a decline in nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) despite its high level compared with that in the past. The recent depreciation was mainly a result of investors’ concerns over the softening outlook of the Thai economy, from both domestic and external prespectives , as well as the Bank of Thailand’s relaxation of foreign exchange regulations to facilitate capital outflows.

Investors started to view that the baht could depreciate after a substantial appreciation last year, the report said.

Meanwhile, a divergence in the trends of the baht and the prices of gold, a safe-haven asset, was more prominent amid the coronavirus outbreak , reflecting a diminishing safe-haven status of baht-denominated assets from the investors’ perspective, according the central bank.

In an interview, Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital markets research at Kasikornbank told the Nation that the baht is currently 5.6 per cent overvalued.

While the country would have lower current account surplus this year, it still remains high, he said. Kasikornbank has lowered its projection of current account surplus to US$33 billion this year, down from the previous forecast of $33.8 billion, he said.

He said imports was still falling faster than exports, resulting in a continuous surplus of the current account, the main factor behind the baht's appreciation.

The weighted- average interbank exchange rate was Bt 31.187 per dollar at the close of trade on February 19, according to the central bank.

Many research houses have revised downward their economic growth forecast to below 2 per cent rate this year.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30382434

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Re: Strong baht may finally weaken, according to Bloomberg

Post by Dodger » Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:39 pm

The Baht just weakened to over 31 THB to the U.S. Dollar today.

32.5 is on the horizon as some predicted.

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