Baht Reaches Six Year High

Anything and everything about Thailand
User avatar
Jun
Posts: 2438
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:20 pm
Has thanked: 279 times
Been thanked: 142 times

Re: Baht Reaches Six Year High

Post by Jun » Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:34 pm

Gaybutton wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:21 pm
Most of the time that is true, but it can get cold in Pattaya, usually for a few days in late January thru February, just about when high season is ending.
I've heard Germans (probably expats) moaning about the cold weather in Pattaya at a coffee shop, when the temperature is probably over 24C with some wind as well. That's what we regard as warm summer weather in the UK.

Here is a comparison of winter temperatures in Pattaya and Faro (Portugal) & I selected the coldest period. Any tourist after warm weather should select Pattaya ahead of southern Europe at this time of year.
Image

User avatar
Gaybutton
Posts: 16491
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Thailand
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 763 times

Re: Baht Reaches Six Year High

Post by Gaybutton » Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:40 am

Ok, enough about the weather. Let's get back to the topic, please.

User avatar
Montree
Posts: 56
Joined: Mon May 22, 2017 5:14 pm
Been thanked: 2 times

Re: Baht Reaches Six Year High

Post by Montree » Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:21 am

Sterling has recovered a bit against the Baht. After a low of 36.9 a couple of months ago it’s now up around 39. A year ago I was getting 42.5. It will be interesting to see what effect the UK Election will have next month.

User avatar
Jun
Posts: 2438
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:20 pm
Has thanked: 279 times
Been thanked: 142 times

Re: Baht Reaches Six Year High

Post by Jun » Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:35 am

Montree wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:21 am
Sterling has recovered a bit against the Baht. After a low of 36.9 a couple of months ago it’s now up around 39. A year ago I was getting 42.5. It will be interesting to see what effect the UK Election will have next month.
I think the 36.9 baht low was when Boris was talking about being prepared to do a no deal Brexit, which in my view was only ever a negotiating ploy. The pound recovered once that possibility receded.
At the next general election, any outcome that sees Jeremy Corbyn trounced would be good for the pound.
ie Either a clear Conservative majority, or a situation where the Liberals gained lots of seats at the expense of the Labour party, to the extent that the Labour leader could not possibly become PM.
In the unlikely event that Corbyn won a majority, the pound would fall substantially as people rush to get their money out of the country.

I also expect a few exchange rate wobbles if opinion polls swing one way or the other before the election.
On all of my previous trips, I've exchanged all of my money on day 1 of the trip, as I know I'm not smart enough to predict short term currency fluctuations and any limited brain power is better applied to longer term financial decisions. This time, applying such discipline might be more difficult.

That's the UK half of the currency pair. At present, the other half Thailand seems quite stable in comparison. A semi-military government, growing economy and a strong balance of trade surplus.

User avatar
Smiles
Posts: 666
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:12 am
Location: Hua Hin
Has thanked: 31 times
Been thanked: 90 times

Re: Baht Reaches Six Year High

Post by Smiles » Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:57 am

USA Dollar has gone below 30 Baht, the highest I can remember is around 36. (average 29.5 according to Bangkok Bank today).

Bangkok Post article here: https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/ge ... -europeans

The Canadian $ (i.e. mine) continues it's slide down to 22.5 (also an annoying happening) . It was 30 when I started living in Thailand (i.e. close to 11 years now). We are not amused.
Cheers ... ( and just one more reason why I love living in Thailand )

Image

User avatar
Gaybutton
Posts: 16491
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Thailand
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 763 times

Re: Baht Reaches Six Year High

Post by Gaybutton » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:21 pm

Smiles wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:57 am
Bangkok Post article here
Also here: https://www.gaybuttonthai.com/viewtopic ... =20#p97877

We are amused . . .

Captain Swing
Posts: 204
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:12 pm
Has thanked: 12 times
Been thanked: 37 times

Re: Baht Reaches Six Year High

Post by Captain Swing » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:49 pm

Bloomberg) -- The Thai baht’s reign as Asia’s best-performing currency is coming under threat from an unlikely source: South Korea’s won.

The baht has slumped into the bottom half of the regional rankings this quarter after heading the table for three consecutive three-month periods. The won meanwhile has shrugged off its chronic underperformance and rocketed to the top.



Baht Falters

The baht has tumbled down the regional rankings after Bank of Thailand stepped up measures to cap the currency’s strength. Policy makers cut interest rates for the second time in three months on Nov. 6, lowering the benchmark to match an all-time low 1.25%. They also said they would ease rules on outflows to curb the surging currency.

Measures taking effect Nov. 8 included allowing exporters to keep a larger amount of money abroad, and scrapping most restrictions on outward transfers. The Bank of Thailand will review these policies every three months and take further steps if needed, Deputy Governor Mathee Supapongse said.

While still eking out a modest gain versus the greenback this quarter, the baht has dropped 0.4% from a six-year high set in late October. The currency may remain under pressure Monday as a report is forecast to show economic growth virtually stalled in the third quarter.

User avatar
Montree
Posts: 56
Joined: Mon May 22, 2017 5:14 pm
Been thanked: 2 times

Re: Baht Reaches Six Year High

Post by Montree » Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:01 pm

Back in June 2016 I walked along Second Road as the result of the UK Brexit Referendum was announced. The pound dropped so rapidly that the Exchange Kiosks could hardly keep up and felt tipped rates were being displayed on notices and then rapidly crossed out. By the time I walked back the pound had dropped by up to 14% depending on the Kiosk you looked at.

User avatar
Gaybutton
Posts: 16491
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Thailand
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 763 times

Re: Baht Reaches Six Year High

Post by Gaybutton » Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:16 am

BoT boss admits baht too high

rate cut 'medicine' won't work

by Darana Chudasri

24 Nov 2019

Image

Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob admits the baht has appreciated at a rate which exceeds the economic fundamentals, saying that interest rate cuts are no longer "strong medicine" that can cure it.

The central bank governor on Saturday expressed concern over the currency's strengthening -- the most rapid in the region -- saying it is not consistent with economic fundamentals.

"It is hard to forecast whether the baht will weaken or become stronger. It could go either way due to increasing geopolitical risk. The currency could make a drastic about-turn if external circumstances change," Mr Veerathai told a group of Thai reporters during an annual press trip to Luang Prabang.

However, he said that it is likely that the baht will become more volatile in the future and the private sector must be able to manage the risks stemming from unpredictable exchange rates in the global foreign exchange market.

Mr Veerathai said there have been constraints on the implementation of monetary and fiscal policy, while structural factors have impeded their economic transmission.

"In the past, cutting the policy interest rate from 3% to 1.25% was seen to be 'strong medicine' [for economic woes]. But this is no longer the case.

"Therefore, a negative interest rate policy should not be adopted because it will lead to many problems in terms of stability,'' he said.

On Nov 6, the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to cut the policy interest rate to 1.25%, matching a previous record low, to boost Thailand's economic growth impetus and support a targeted increase in headline inflation.

The central bank's policy interest rate has been repeatedly cut from 3.5% in 2011.

The current rate of 1.25% is the country's lowest since the global financial crisis in 2008.

Pursuing a negative interest rate policy any further is unlikely to prove efficient, said the central bank governor.

Five of the seven-member rate-setting panel voted for a 25-basis-point rate cut on the grounds that a more accommodative monetary policy would contribute to economic growth and support headline inflation to rise towards the target, the MPC said.

Two members voted to keep the policy rate unchanged, reasoning that a rate cut might not lend support for economic growth compared with a potential financial stability risk.

MPC secretary Titanun Mallikamas said the committee determined the Thai economy would expand at a lower rate than previously assessed, below its potential, because of a decline in exports that has affected employment and domestic demand.

"Headline inflation was projected to be below the lower bound of the inflation target. There is limited space to cut the policy interest rate further, as the existing level is already low,'' he said.

The committee sees the economy facing greater risks going forward, especially external threats from trade tensions, the economic outlook of China and advanced economies that could affect domestic demand.

The strong baht has put pressure on the Bank of Thailand and the MPC as it, along with global trade dispute, has adversely affected exports which contribute about 70% of the country's gross domestic product.

The contraction of exports has forced the National Economic and Social Development Council to cut its 2019 GDP forecast again to 2.6% -- from an earlier projection of 2.7%-3.2%.

Economic ministers agreed on Friday that fresh economic stimulus measures are necessary to help boost full-year economic growth.

Kobsak Pootrakool, deputy secretary-general to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha for political affairs, said the measures would play an important part in lifting the economy in the fourth quarter to over 2.8% growth and over 2.6% for the full year.

The Finance Minister is expected to place the new economic stimulus package on the cabinet table for consideration on Tuesday.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/18 ... t-too-high

Post Reply