Prime Minister Election

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Re: Prime Minister Election

Post by Gaybutton »

Seems to me the handwriting is on the wall for protests if Pita is not elected Prime Minister. I would not call it a stolen election, as Trump would do, because despite the fact that the end result might not go our way, none of the MPs are doing anything illegal. All that has taken place so far is within the law. However, the morality of how this so far seems to be turning out - that's another question.

Again, it's not over yet. I believe most reading this are rooting for Pita and I still think he can pull it off and win - because it's right.
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Thailand’s radical pick for prime minister fails at the first hurdle

By Barry Kenyon

July 14, 2023

Leader of the Move Forward Party (MFP), Pita Limjaroenrat, says he will try to find more voting supporters after a joint meeting of newly-elected members of parliament and the unelected Senate failed to provide him with 375 votes to assume the highest elected office. Although 311 MPs out of 500 cast their vote in Pita’s favor, only 13 senators out of 249 appointments followed suit, leaving a shortfall of at least 51 approvals all told. This is not surprising as all senators were appointed by the military authorities soon after the 2014 coup.

A second vote, at which Pita will be eligible to stand again, will be held on July 19. But it will be hard for him to find all those extra senatorial votes. He may even get fewer next time as the majority put pressure on the “liberals” to abstain in the second round. The MFP is unpopular in military-backed and conservative circles because of its desire to reform the treason laws which some see as an attack on the institution of the monarchy. Other aspects of MFP ambitions which are controversial are the ending of compulsory military conscription and of huge monopolies which run parts of the Thai economy.

If Pita falls again at the second vote next week, it is more than likely that the second-biggest party in the MFP coalition, the Thaksin-backed Pheu Thai, will put up their own candidate as prime minister. Although many senators also dislike Pheu Thai, they would be more inclined to accept a more moderate prime minister who will not push for treason laws reform. MFP then faces the dilemma of whether to remain in the coalition, playing second fiddle, or to stand aside and join the opposition ranks, hoping to rebound at the next general election four years down the road. Pheu Thai would likely scramble at least 375 votes in a combined parliamentary vote with help from smaller parties in the House of Representatives as well as a sigh of relief from the military-backed senators.

Even if Pita, by some extraordinary good luck, was to be elected prime minister next week, he would face possible banning as an MP if he illegally held shares in a media company at the time of his nomination. Pita answers that the media company shares merely derived from a dead relative’s estate and did not involve an organization actually trading. These technical matters are now lodged with the constitutional court which has not yet begun to investigate the issues and may not hurry to do so. Other variables in the tense Thai political cauldron are whether MFP members, mostly young, will take to the streets once they feel their leader has been cheated of victory, or whether a small military-backed party in the lower house may propose a retired general as prime minister, relying on minority support amongst MPs but a big vote in favour by the unelected senators. The muddy waters may not clear any time soon.

https://www.pattayamail.com/news/thaila ... dle-435874
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Re: Prime Minister Election

Post by Jun »

Gaybutton wrote: Fri Jul 14, 2023 3:04 pmAll that has taken place so far is within the law.
The law also results in the electoral commission crawling all over MPs records to try and find some minor infringement to bar them.

Meanwhile, there were no such checks and balances when the army appoints itself as the government & rewrites the constitution. So what you need to govern, is not votes, but command of an army.
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Re: Prime Minister Election

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Jun wrote: Fri Jul 14, 2023 3:31 pm Meanwhile, there were no such checks and balances when the army appoints itself as the government & rewrites the constitution.
That is a very good point. Maybe nobody violated the law, but who wrote the law and what motivated it? That, of course, is a rhetorical question . . .
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Re: Prime Minister Election

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I think Pita's best chance is to drop the idea of amending the Lese Majeste law. From what I'm reading, that is the main obstacle standing in his way. Personally I hope he does drop it. I understand why he wants to make changes, but I don't think now is the right time, especially if he wants to become Prime Minister and put his other ideas and policies in place. They can worry about amending the Lese Majeste law later, maybe a few years down the road. But I see no indication that he intends to drop it. Instead he is trying to explain his position and what he intends to do. But as far as I can tell, enough senators to elect him simply aren't buying it. I don't understand what is so important about amending the law now, but apparently that is how Pita sees it.

In my opinion it would be a sad loss for Thailand if the next Prime Minister is someone other than Pita. I think, and I hope I'm wrong, whoever else it might be will just be a continuation of the same old same old. If any changes are made, I don't think they'll be for the better. As I said, I hope I'm wrong.

If Pita doesn't make it, Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, stands a chance. But Thaksin was overthrown in a coup and so was Yingluck, Thaksin's sister. And both of them have been convicted of crimes and face possible prison time if they return to Thailand. I don't know what any of that might mean for Paetongtarn. If she ends up as Prime minister I hope she will be judged on her own merits.

We'll see what happens Wednesday. I just hope whatever happens does not spark major protests, but as I said in an earlier post, from what I have been reading the handwriting is on the wall.

Fingers crossed - Will the senators abide by the crystal clear will of the people or will they disregard the popular election and support only their own agenda?
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Thailand's royalists foiled Harvard grad Pita Limjaroenrat's first attempt at becoming prime minister. Here's what happens now

by Clement Tan

July 15, 2023

Key Points

* Move Forward’s Pita Limjaroenrat fell 51 votes short of the majority he needed from the 749 members of Thailand’s bicameral National Assembly for the top job.
* Next vote is scheduled for Wednesday, where Limjaroenrat may get a second chance.
* Pheu Thai, the second-placed party in May’s elections, may nominate its own prime minister candidate.
* Move Forward may risk dissolution by Thailand’s Constitutional Court after a complaint alleging the party’s plan to reform lèse-majesté law seeks to “overthrow” the democratic government with the king as head of state.

Thailand’s Pita Limjaroenrat may get another shot at the country’s prime minister job next week.

But his path to potential power remains unclear, especially if the leader of the country’s Move Forward Party does not budge from his election pledge to amend a law that prohibits criticism of the monarchy.

Limjaroenrat fell 51 votes short of the majority he needed from the 749 members of Thailand’s bicameral National Assembly for the top job in a first parliamentary vote on Thursday.

While he secured 311 votes from his eight-party coalition, he only gained 13 of 250 in the Senate — an entity created by the royalist military after a coup in 2014 and stacked with conservative royalists.

While this development was widely expected, the deep divisions underscore the royalist senators’ mistrust of Limjaroenrat and his Move Forward Party’s anti-establishment agenda, while also highlighting the risk of prolonged political turmoil in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.

“Should there be a protracted delay in the formation of a new government, or if the eventual prime minister is not seen to have a popular mandate, it could drive a resurgence of large scale protests,” Grace Lim, an analyst with Moody’s Investors Service, wrote in a Friday research note.

“Persistently elevated political tensions could erode the credibility and effectiveness of Thailand’s institutional frameworks, particularly if these tensions reduced the authorities’ ability to effectively execute macroeconomic policy and respond to long-term issues, including ageing and labor skills,” she added.

Another vote is tentatively scheduled for Wednesday. Forty-two-year-old Pita, who attended Harvard Kennedy School, will be able to stand for prime minister if nominated again by his eight-party alliance.

Otherwise, Pheu Thai — the second-largest party in the eight-party coalition with Move Forward — may also put forward its own candidate from among the three candidates the party had earlier surfaced.

They are Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of the exiled populist ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra; former property tycoon Srettha Thavisin and Chaikasem Nitisiri, the party’s chief of strategy and political direction.

Deep mistrust

On Thursday, many senators voiced their objections against Move Forward’s plan to amend Article 112 in Thailand’s criminal code, commonly referred as its lèse-majesté law. Some allege that the wording of the amendment the party submitted a few years ago seems to suggest they plan to dismantle the law entirely.

Move Forward has denied this allegation, and reiterated it only intends to revise some parts to prevent its abuse as a political mechanism.

“But again even revising some parts, the conservative parties and the older generation could not accept that. And I don’t think they will change their position on this,” Punchada Sirivunnabood, an associate professor of politics at Bangkok’s Mahidol University, told CNBC Friday.

Move Forward’s proposed amendments to the lèse majesté law reportedly include a drastic reduction in the prison sentence from the current 15-year maximum to just a year for defaming the king, and six months for defaming the queen, heir or regent.

Thailand’s young is deeply disenchanted with the country’s royalist military establishment partly because the lèse-majesté law was invoked against several young protesters in 2020. About 250 of the 1,914 prosecutions linked to the 2020 protests were under the lèse-majesté law, according to the group Thai Lawyers for Human Rights — with many minors among these cases.

Speaking to Reuters after Thursday’s vote, Limjaroenrat said senators could not vote freely and he would re-strategize to try to convince them to follow the will of the people.

“Many were not voting as they wished. I understand there is a lot of pressure on them, and incentives,” he said, without elaborating. “I think there is still time to get more votes.”

Late on Friday, Move Forward Party lawmakers sought to bar the junta-appointed senators from participating in the subsequent vote for prime minister, by proposing an amendment to Article 272 of the junta-sponsored constitution.

There are significant hurdles for the amendment to pass. Move Forward will need at least 376 votes from the National Assembly, which must include approval from one third of senators and at least 20% of the votes from opposition parties.

Echoes from the past

Campaigning on an ambitious structural reform agenda targeting the country’s monarchy, monopolies and military, Move Forward won a surprise majority at May’s elections — propelled by the votes of younger Thais. Along with the Pheu Thai Party, Move Forward had swept aside many conservative politicians after nine years of military rule.

These aims essentially extended the goals of student protests more than two years ago that were triggered by the dissolution of Future Forward — Move Forward’s predecessor entity — which was highly critical of outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha, the former military general who seized power in a 2014 coup and made changes to the Thai constitution in 2017.

Move Forward’s slim majority though has rendered its agenda vulnerable to the machinations of the institutions it is seeking to reform, along with the interlocking patronage networks that remain despite the ouster of several influential business families in this election.

“Key risk remains with the outcome of the constitutional court’s rulings on Pita’s election qualifications and whether the MFP’s policy for royal defamation law amendment was constitutional,” Citi economist Nalin Chutchotitham wrote in a Friday note.

A day before Thursday’s vote, Limjaroenrat was rocked by a fresh complaint lodged against him to Thailand’s constitutional court, accusing Move Forward’s plan to reform the lèse-majesté law as tantamount to “overthrowing a democratic government” with the king as head of state.

This came hours after the Election Commission recommended that the same court disqualify Limjaroenrat as member of parliament, after it confirmed the validity of a complaint that he violated electoral rules with his ownership of shares in a defunct media company he inherited from his late father.

Both developments bear an uncanny parallel to events that led to the dissolution of Future Forward that involved the court disqualification of its leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit for failing to declare his shares in a media company. Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, a constitional law scholar and professor who was also Future Forward’s secretary-general, was also disqualified from politics at the party’s dissolution.

“Nothing is going to change,” Mahidol’s Sirivunnabood said. “What Thanathorn and Piyabutr faced a couple years ago is going to happen to Pita again.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/14/thailan ... s-now.html
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Re: Prime Minister Election

Post by Jun »

I think freedom of speech is very important and ought to be one of the First Amendment's to Gen Prayut's rotten constitution.

However, there are limits to what I ought to say about the affairs of another country, since that is a matter for their people. Or it would be, if the constitution respected the decisions of the people in democratic elections.

Also a certain current law has a direct effect on the rules of this and other boards. Those rules are second reason why I'm not going to say more.
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Re: Prime Minister Election

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From the beginning I saw the hand of Thaksin at work as the puppet master with friends in high places:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/ ... tep-aside/
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Re: Prime Minister Election

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Undaunted wrote: Sat Jul 15, 2023 8:11 pm From the beginning I saw the hand of Thaksin at work as the puppet master with friends in high places
I suppose that's possible, but I don't draw the same conclusion because the senators refusing to vote for Pita are military appointees. It was the military that overthrew Thaksin. Why would they be doing Thaksin's bidding now? I would have thought, if Thaksin is trying to stick his nose into the election, he would be trying to get his daughter elected Prime Minister. That would be his best chance to avoid prison and be the puppet master for the daughter. I do believe, however, that behind the scenes he is doing something, whatever it is. I don't picture him just sitting back and watching the whole thing unfold, as if just watching a TV show, without trying to influence the outcome.

I think it is more likely that Thaksin is waiting to see which way the wind is blowing because he has made it clear he wants to return to Thailand, but he would love to do it without having to go to prison. If he ever really does return I'm wondering what he'll be doing once he gets here. Somehow I don't envision Thaksin just fading into quiet retirement. According to Forbes his net worth is still over 2-billion dollars, US. I don't imagine him spending the rest of his life sitting by a swimming pool drinking Mint Juleps and eating sushi.
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Re: Prime Minister Election

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Undaunted wrote: Sat Jul 15, 2023 8:11 pmFrom the beginning I saw the hand of Thaksin at work as the puppet master with friends in high places
Who would the friends in high places be ?
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Re: Prime Minister Election

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A passive type of protest seems to have begun.
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Online calls for boycott of senators’ businesses top trending overnight

July 15, 2023

Online community saw #ธุรกิจสว (Senator’s business) trending top overnight, after Move Forward supporters gathered information on businesses owned by senators and their families, with a focus on those who abstained or were absent from the voting on Pita Limjaroenrat’s prime ministerial candidacy on Thursday.

One Twitter user said that this is a way they can exercise their rights, by choosing to boycott certain businesses with links to senators. The concept even goes as far as erecting signage near those businesses to inform the public.

People were, however, also strongly advised to be modest and careful in their comments on social media, since they could be charged under the Computer Crime Act, which stipulates that any person who damages, destroys, corrects, changes or amends another party’s computer data, either in whole or in part, shall be subject to imprisonment of up to five years and/or a fine of up to one hundred thousand baht.

Senator absences and abstentions from voting for Pita on Thursday played a decisive role in preventing him from becoming Thailand’s 30th prime minister.

The final tally of votes in the joint sitting was 324 for Pita, 182 against and 199 abstentions. Over 30 senators did not show up.

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/online-cal ... overnight/
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Re: Prime Minister Election

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It really does seem as if what the people voted for and obviously want means nothing to some of these people. It doesn't matter. Apparently it's only what they want that counts. Meanwhile non-violent protests have begun. Calls for boycotts as outlined in the article above. People voicing their anger online. People holding up protest signs. I hope it won't escalate beyond that, but that's a wait-and-see.

Meanwhile, the Move Forward Party is saying they are adamant about refusing to back down on their bid to amend the Lese Majeste laws. I'm not sure exactly what amendments they want. I have not seen any details about what specific changes the party actually wants, but whatever it is, that's what the whole thing apparently hinges on. I wish they would back down so Pita can take office. I would have thought there are plenty of issues of much greater importance for immediate concern.

If it isn't Pita, I hope we haven't heard the last of him. 4 years from now is the next Prime Minister election. If he runs again and wins, maybe this time the vote will count for something. Unless the laws change, if a handful of senators don't like the outcome, they get to tell the entire country that their vote doesn't mean anything.

I still hope it will be Pita, but if not, any guesses as to who it might be?
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Pita: Ready to give way to Pheu Thai if necessary

Eight coalition parties will meet Tuesday to decide whether to renominate Move Forward leader for second PM vote

July 15, 2023

Move Forward Party (MFP) leader Pita Limjaroenrat admits the country can’t wait much longer for a new government, saying that if he cannot overcome Senate opposition to his bid to be prime minister, partner Pheu Thai should be given a chance.

Mr Pita made the comment in a video posted on his official Twitter account on Saturday, as the eight coalition parties prepare for a meeting on Tuesday to decide on their next steps.

The main topic of discussion will be whether to renominate Mr Pita for prime minister in parliament on Wednesday, after he fell well short of a majority on his first try on Thursday.

“We have a few chances left to fight together in two battles to lead to the successful establishment of a government according to public opinion,” Mr Pita said.

“The first battle … is the vote for prime minister on July 19, and the second is a proposed amendment to Section 272 of the constitution to cut the power of senators to choose the prime minister forever.

“Both battles will never be victorious if we cannot change the mind of the senators to be on the side of the people.

“If we do our best in these two battles, and it is clear that the progressive party does not really have a chance to become a leader in forming a government, I am ready to open … the way for the Pheu Thai Party as a leader in establishing a coalition government of 8 parties under the MoU we made together.

“All the representatives of the Move Forward Party are ready to support candidates for prime minister from the Pheu Thai Party.

“But until that day we definitely won’t give up.”

Key Pheu Thai and Move Forward figures held talks on Friday night to discuss the second round of the voting and evaluate the situation, said a source at the eight-party coalition.

Representing the MFP were secretary-general Chaithawat Tulathon and deputy leaders Picharn Chaowapatanawon and Sirikanya Tansakul. Pheu Thai leader Cholnan Srikaew, deputy leader Phumtham Wechayachai and secretary-general Prasert Chantarauangthong joined them. The discussions took about 1.45 hours.

Mr Pita, 42, the sole prime ministerial candidate nominated in Thursday's parliament session, received 324 votes in favour and 182 against, with 199 abstentions, from the 705 members participating. He needed 375 votes — a simple majority of the 749 combined House and Senate seats — to win the office.

He received 311 votes in favour from MPs and 148 against, with 39 abstentions. He received just 13 votes in favour from senators, 34 against and 159 abstentions. Forty-three senators were absent.

During the talks on Friday, the MFP and Pheu Thai strategists discussed an issue raised by some parliamentarians, as to whether the same motion could be repeated on Wednesday.

They evaluated what the senators might do at the next meeting, and also whether the parties from the outgoing government might nominate a PM candidate. The meeting did not decide whether the coalition would renominate Mr Pita, said the source, pending talks with other coalition partners.

Pheu Thai also reportedly disagreed with Move Forward’s move to amend Section 272 of the constitution to strip the military-appointed senators of their power to co-select the prime minister.

Doing so would be an uphill task because a motion on this issue requires at least 84 votes from the Senate.

‘Anyone could be nominated’

Pol Gen Sereepisuth Temeeyaves, leader of the Seri Ruam Thai Party, one of the eight coalition allies, said trying to change Section 272 was futile and could be viewed as a selfish move by the MFP.

As for Wednesday’s vote, anyone could be nominated because there are no specific regulations governing the process, he said.

Parliamentarians could nominate Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, the prime ministerial candidate of the Palang Pracharath Party, or even Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha. The latter has said he’s retiring from politics but he is still on record as the prime ministerial candidate of the United Nation Party.

In any case, he thinks Mr Pita’s chances of victory are slim.

He dismissed the possibility that the coalition might change strategy by picking Pheu Thai candidates Srettha Thavisin or Paetongtarn Shinawatra, saying Pheu Thai would continue to give its full support to the MFP.

But if the vote on July 19 fails to produce a prime minister, “the two parties have to hold talks about whether MFP will move back so Pheu Thai can nominate its candidate”, he said.

“Though there is a change in the nomination, Pheu Thai would still stay with the MFP. They have kept saying that they will stay together. If they fail to honour their promise, they cannot be in a relationship. The two parties must constantly hold talks,” said Pol Gen Sereepisuth.

Some political analysts have said that even Pheu Thai might find senators hostile to its candidate if the party remains in an alliance with Move Forward. Much of the opposition to Mr Pita has been linked to his party’s desire to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code, the lese-majeste law.

In the end, Pol Gen Sereepisuth conceded, Pheu Thai might have to form a government with Bhumjaithai, the Democrats or other parties to secure the 376 votes for its candidate.

But even if Move Forward ended up in the opposition, he said, it should still support the formation of a Pheu Thai Party government to facilitate future collaboration.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/po ... -necessary
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