Democracy will Prevail

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firecat69

Democracy will Prevail

Post by firecat69 »

A fabulous article IMHO by one the most learned men in International Affairs.

http://time.com/5336615/democracy-will-prevail/
fountainhall

Re: Democracy will Prevail

Post by fountainhall »

I fear once again I am taking a more or less different view of that article from firecat69.

It's certainly an interesting point of view, but surely it is one seen through pretty thick rosy-tinted spectacles. I certainly take issue with a number of Admiral Stavridis’ comments.

1. In the very first paragraph he talks about the period post World War 2. He describes the Cold War as being one between ideologies often fought by proxies. But then, after talking of the millions killed (it was in fact many millions) “tens of thousands of them American,” he then says: “it was a high-minded fight.”

What? Is he serious? Is that some form of justification for the wars in Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia? If so, it’s nonsense! He is not very deftly defying the lesson of those wars and how and why they started. What we now know is that in the late 1940s America knew precious little about the countries in Asia in which they became stalled in these huge proxy wars. Had they done so, those wars might never have happened. We know as fact that both Roosevelt and Truman refused several written requests from Ho Chi Minh for help in getting the French colonists out of his country. At that point neither Vietnam nor Laos had much to do with communism. But neither President, both in word and on paper strongly anti-colonial, was prepared to act. Not unnaturally it was partly - if not, largely - due to US inaction that those countries turned to America’s enemies. Then, by siding with dictators in Seoul, Manila, Phnom Penh and Saigon on the pretense that these were models of democratic thinking when in fact their puppets were all outright thugs, murderers and thieves, the USA totally betrayed its democratic principles. And Stavridis believes this was all “high-minded”?

2. Towards the middle of the article, he talks about neither Russia nor China ever having had a sustained period of democratic rule throughout their histories. True. He then states this makes “it easy to forget that the world’s dominant military and economic forces remain in the hands of committed democracies.” That’s a reasonable point, until he implies that those committed democracies include India, Columbia, Brazil, Armenia, Tunisia, Chile, Indonesia and South Korea. These countries help make up the world’s dominant militaries? That all sounds sort of impressive, but the Admiral forgets that most of those countries have experienced highly corrupt leaders, some of whom have been the subject of impeachment.

3. Near the end, he suggests “But for every example of democracy fading out or finding itself under attack, there are counterexamples of democracy and democratic activists moving forward and finding solutions.” He talks about Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron, Shinzo Abe and Justin Trudeau as being “outspoken in defense of democratic values.” Again a reasonable point, except he forgets to mention that Merkel is under intense pressure from the right in her own country and may not lead Germany after the next election. As for Abe, Japan has never been a country that embraces democratic values in any western sense with the exception that a very suspect form of voting takes place.

4. His conclusion is that democracy will prevail. Yet in mentioning those countries where hard-liners have not just taken power but are consolidating that power sometimes by altering constitutions in their favour, his rosy tinted spectacles persuade him that Turkey, Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Hungary, Poland and The Philippines (to which in Asia he could add Indonesia) are “still recognizable as democracies.” What? Turkey is recognizable as a democracy? That seems so far from the mark that he must be wearing those spectacles again!
firecat69

Re: Democracy will Prevail

Post by firecat69 »

Try reading the article more carefully. Rose Colored glasses he certainly does not have. He starts off with statistics that less then 1/2 the world's population live in Democracies.

But of course the following is what made you dislike the article because he says clearly what China is and how they have made their successes! Oh and by the way as well read as you think you are , your experiences are minuscule compared to his.

" China’s rise may seem like economic validation of authoritarianism, but it has come by liberalizing a backward agrarianism to mimic established democracies, and by stealing their intellectual property. And imitation has its limits. Few in Europe and Asia have forgotten that free-market economies were democracy’s greatest weapon in the 20th century, and the entrepreneurs and investors that drive those free markets won’t soon embrace authoritarian control"
firecat69

Re: Democracy will Prevail

Post by firecat69 »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_G._Stavridis

There are few who have as deep knowledge of the world as this man.
fountainhall

Re: Democracy will Prevail

Post by fountainhall »

firecat69 wrote:But of course the following is what made you dislike the article because he says clearly what China is and how they have made their successes! Oh and by the way as well read as you think you are , your experiences are minuscule compared to his.
Please point out where I said that. I did not! So please do not attempt to put words into my mouth. I mentioned China just once in my review of the article. What I wrote, as you will know having read the article, was virtually word for word as stated in that article!

Despite his knowledge of and experience in world affairs - and I do not dispute either - the fact is he is downright wrong at the outset of his simplistic analysis of the proxy wars during the Cold War as being "high-minded". As we have come to know over the years with documents being declassified, that is nonsense! They were the result of a now wholly discredited domino theory fed in part by the panic in Congress over "Who lost China?", an extremely limited understanding in Washington of Asian affairs and the fear generated by Senator McCarthy's communist witch-hunt,
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Re: Democracy will Prevail

Post by Gaybutton »

Every so often I have to remind people to stick to the issue itself and refrain from getting personal with each other.

Let's please make sure that all I will need to do is remind.
fountainhall

Re: Democracy will Prevail

Post by fountainhall »

No comments. Only a rather different viewpoint quoting from a February 2018 article that summarises the annual Democracy Index Report prepared by the Economist Intelligence Unit. Although it deals with facts relating to the present and less on predictions for the future, I believe it represents a more balanced and objective view of democracy around the world than that of one expert. The Report shows that -
democratic governments are in trouble everywhere. Of the 167 countries ranked this year, 89 of them received lower scores than last year. The scores reflect a wide range of liberties, attitudes, and norms that are vital elements of a free society.

How does it work?

The report ranks countries on a scale of 0-10 in the categories of electoral process and pluralism, civil liberties, government functionality, political participation, and political culture. Each of those categories is further composed of a dozen, more concrete, indicators. The scores are then aggregated to create a single score for the state of freedom and democracy in that country.

A country's overall score then places it in one of four categories: full democracy, flawed democracy, hybrid regime or authoritarian regime . . .

So how bad is it?

This year less than half of the world's population lives in a democracy "of some sort." While the margin is thin, a one percent swing would tip the scale; it is symbolic of the decline of democracy over the last decade. One-third of the global population lives in outright authoritarian regimes, primarily due to the massive population of the People's Republic of China. The percentage of the world's population that lives in a "full democracy" fell to less than five percent.

Asia was a significant driver behind this decline. India, a democracy since independence, saw a substantial fall in its score due to increasing religious and ethnic unrest. Myanmar, Cambodia, and Vietnam all descended further into authoritarianism, and the recent religiously focused election for the governor of Jakarta caused Indonesia to see a major drop in its score.

The average Asian country is now a hybrid regime, as opposed to the full democracies which are typical in Europe and North America. The average Latin American country is a flawed democracy, although Uruguay has the distinction of being the only developing country which is also a full democracy . . .

The report cites a "serious decline" in trust for governmental institutions for the decay of the United States' score, which fell low enough in 2015 to earn the title of "flawed democracy." The authors suggested that the decline was caused by factors which go back to the 1960s and helped facilitate the election of Donald Trump.

The authors also warn that many elements of a falling score can create vicious cycles, such as increasing polarization preventing government functionality. The decline in functionality almost inevitably leads to further erosion of confidence in public institutions.
The authors also see some reasons to be optimistic.
Is there any good news in the report?

"If 2016 was notable for the populist insurgency against mainstream political parties and politicians in the developed democracies of Europe and North America, 2017 was defined by a backlash against populism," they write. As the decline in democratic norms in many nations was the result of populism gone mad, the reversal of the trend might offer hope for democratic norms in those places.

Last year was a difficult year for democracy around the world. Between direct challenges to freedom in places like China, Vietnam, and Venezuela and a deterioration in democratic norms in places like the United States, the world became a little less safe for democracy. If this report will be the beginning of a new trend or a blip on the march of democracy is yet to be seen.
https://bigthink.com/scotty-hendricks/a ... ted-states
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