Is the End if the Korean War Finally in Sight?

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fountainhall

Is the End if the Korean War Finally in Sight?

Post by fountainhall »

The stunning developments over the last few hours with Trump and Kim seemingly agreeing to sit down and talk in May are just that - stunning! As surprising is the North’s apparent agreement to suspend/give up its nuclear programme. It was only a few months ago that we were talking about a possible nuclear war. South Korea’s Olympic Diplomacy is clearly starting to work - no thanks to Pence and Ivanka who stolidly refused to shake hands with the dictator’s representatives when sitting so close by.

Give Trump his due, though. His stiffening of sanctions, the unanimous agreement of the United Nations, the parts played by all concerned certainly have all helped in creating this new situation.

As the pundits have been pronouncing this morning, though, reaching any agreement by May is incredibly early. There will have to be endless talks about talks beforehand. And the US still has no Ambassador in South Korea and a senior Korean expert in the State Department recently resigned! But as one commentator said, why does this necessarily have to follow the old diplomatic rules?

There have been talks before and all have failed. Might these just have a chance of success?
thaiworthy

Re: Is the End if the Korean War Finally in Sight?

Post by thaiworthy »

It may all come down to this:

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Re: Is the End if the Korean War Finally in Sight?

Post by Gaybutton »

fountainhall wrote:There have been talks before and all have failed. Might these just have a chance of success?
With Trump you never know. I hope it succeeds, but I think what Kim Jong Un really wants is to end the USA military presence in Korea in exchange for denuclearizing and an end to the sanctions. I can see Trump agreeing to scale down the military presence and possibly halting the annual war games, but I doubt he would agree to totally eliminate a military presence.

I also doubt that Trump would agree to much of anything without a means of reliably verifying that North Korea really is denuclearizing and there are no secret buildups going on. I doubt that North Korea would agree to American inspectors, but perhaps would agree to inspectors from a neutral country.

I would think there will be several back and forth delegations prior to Kim Jong Un and Trump actually meeting face-to-face. It will be very interesting to see what goes on behind the scenes - at least as much as will be made public.

I have a feeling this is going to be either very good or very bad. I hope the end result is a USA embassy in North Korea and a North Korea embassy in Washington. I hope North Korea will start feeding its people and letting them live a normal life rather than continuing spending their money on military buildups. I hope North Korea stops being so secretive and opens up their country and, for starters, ends their gulag system and torturing their own people.

If both sides play their cards right, this could all end very well. However, considering who the card players are, I'm skeptical until it actually happens. For me, this is an "I'll believe it when I see it."
windwalker

Re: Is the End if the Korean War Finally in Sight?

Post by windwalker »

Just another ploy by Kim that will come to nothing.
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Re: Is the End if the Korean War Finally in Sight?

Post by Gaybutton »

windwalker wrote:Just another ploy by Kim that will come to nothing.
I'm not particularly optimistic either, but at least they're going to meet at all - assuming, that is, unless something goes wrong before they do.

It will be interesting to see what location is selected for the meeting. It wouldn't surprise me if Trump tries to get Kim to meet at one of his hotels.

I can't help, though, being reminded of when Neville Chamberlain met with Hitler in Munich. The thing is which one of them will be Hitler and which one will be Chamberlain . . .
windwalker

Re: Is the End if the Korean War Finally in Sight?

Post by windwalker »

China might be the only neutral ground for a meeting although I don't believe Kim has been outside N. Korea for quite some time.
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Re: Is the End if the Korean War Finally in Sight?

Post by Gaybutton »

Commentary: On North Korea, Trump once again divides the GOP

by Michael Graham

March 9, 2018

First it was tariffs. Now it's talks with North Korea's dictator. For people predicting Donald Trump would be a different kind of Republican president, that moment may have finally arrived.

After a year of fairly traditional Republican policies—albeit wrapped in a cloud of Trumpian chaos—President Trump has made two high-profile policy moves that aren't sitting well with many in his own party. In the past, Republicans have complained about the roller-coaster ride that is the Trump presidency, but they have generally found it ended up in establishment GOP territory: Tax cuts, a willingness to use military force (in Syria and Afghanistan), looking for compromises on immigration, etc.

On Thursday, President Trump took two major steps away from GOP orthodoxy: He imposed massive tariffs on steel and aluminum; and he announced he is willing to meet with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un without significant pre-conditions.

"Kim Jong Un talked about denuclearization with the South Korean Representatives, not just a freeze," Trump tweeted Thursday night. "Also, no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!"

Imagine the response from the Right if President Obama—or Hillary Clinton—had made such a declaration, based on nothing more than assurances from the notoriously untrustworthy Kim regime of a temporary halt to nuclear and missile testing.

But instead of a wholesale rejection of Trump's approach, the GOP finds itself once again divided by the policies of its own president.

"The North Korean racket for decades now has been to offer talks in exchange for bribes or other advantages. Then we pay them, and make an agreement, and when they cheat it all breaks down- until the next time. I hope we are not about to fall into their trap yet again." That was the reaction from former Reagan and George W. Bush foreign policy adviser Elliott Abrams. "Talking to Kim Jong Un is worthless unless he acts first to show that this is not just another swindle," he said.

Longtime Korea watcher Elliott Epstein at the conservative Weekly Standard agreed: "I suspect that in the long run it's a move to buy time. This is not a regime that's ever going to denuclearize. But I think they're worried about the potential for a preemptive strike, they're worried about the sanctions and a meeting with Trump is something that could probably run the clock out."

But other Republicans were more open to the idea. Sen. Lindsey Graham sent out a statement: "After numerous discussions with President Trump, I firmly believe his strong stand against North Korea and its nuclear aggression gives us the best hope in decades to resolve this threat peacefully."

Some on the Right are arguing that Kim's willingness to meet with the U.S. president he denounced as a "dotard" and "a rogue and a gangster fond of playing with fire" is evidence that Trump's policies are working.

"The administration's maximum pressure campaign and rhetoric may be yielding results," said Mark Dubowitz of the right-leaning Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. "The Trump administration should continue using the toughest sanctions to maintain maximum pressure before the summit in May."

Ed Royce, R-California, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee agrees. "Kim Jong Un's desire to talk shows sanctions the administration has implemented are starting to work."

Still, the consensus is that the Kim regime will never give up its nuclear program because the North sees it as the only way to ensure it holds onto power.

"The regime has made the strategic decision that the only way Kim is going to be able to remain in power is to become a nuclear power," Epstein said. "They saw what happened to Saddam [Hussein] and what happened to Gaddafi, and they came to the--to be frank--correct strategic conclusion that only nukes would let them survive."

Does President Trump really believe they'll negotiate their survival away? If he does, not many Republicans—or Korea watchers—agree.

Then there's the Trump factor. Will this meeting actually happen? Or will Mr. Trump pull yet another reality TV plot twist? Given his track record, Republicans in Congress may understandably be reluctant to get out too far ahead of developments.

And if the meeting does happen, how will the president handle it? From Donald Trump's early morning tweeting to the possibility Kim Jong Un could do something provocative while Trump is on the Korean peninsula -- there is clearly a lot of political risk. How close do Republicans want to be standing to him when Mr. Trump throws this foreign-policy "Hail Mary?"

It's hard to imagine another Republican president who would take the political gamble this high-stakes meeting entails. And that may explain why Republicans are struggling to find the right way to react.

CBSN contributor Michael Graham is a conservative columnist for the Boston Herald.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary ... s-the-gop/
firecat69

Re: Is the End if the Korean War Finally in Sight?

Post by firecat69 »

Likely as everything with Trump, there will be no meeting or if there is Trump will screw it up.

Kim's father and Grandfather tried for this Presidential meeting for many years to add to their status. Of course it never happened and likely this never will either.

But who cares Trump got the Porn Star story off the front pages by just saying yes without telling anyone. Just another Trump Joke.
Up2u

Re: Is the End if the Korean War Finally in Sight?

Post by Up2u »

I hope I'm wrong but I think Little Rocket Man just out foxed President Dennison. No other American president has met with North Korean dictators, ever ask yourself why? A President who doesn't read or understand the complexities of diplomacy, going one on one.... shudder. If kudos are to be given it should be to President Moon in keeping the communication channels open.
tree

Re: Is the End if the Korean War Finally in Sight?

Post by tree »

Considering how sensitive asians are to losing face, Trump talking with Kim cannot end well, even if they talked only about weather ...
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