China Fails to Keep Its Word

firecat69
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#1 China Fails to Keep Its Word

Postby firecat69 » Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:03 am

Once again China proves to be untrustworthy. I expect that from Putin but at some point I expect the 2nd Biggest Economic power in the world and its desire to replace the US in world influence, to keep its word.

I am not looking for a historical rendition of how the US has broken its word in the past. We are in the Here and Now.

China broke the sanctions they agreed to against N Korea,which I should be used to because they have proved untrustworthy in the recent past.

They can bring Kim to heel but they refuse to and they will bear responsibility if this mad man starts a shooting nuclear war because China will not honor its promises and starve N Korea of its Oil and its Money.

Words are cheap and in my mind Xi needs to become a world leader instead of a World Liar!

Of Course I acknowledge Trump is even a bigger Liar but not in starving KIM of oil and cash. China needs to step Up!

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#2 Re: China Fails to Keep Its Word

Postby Jun » Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:46 am

Which specific sanctions agreement has China broken and how have they broken it ?

I know Mr Trump made accusations, but is there some credible evidence ?

A Taiwan registered ship and a Hong Kong registered ship transferring oil does not mean China is controlling the trade. Entrepreneurs also like to trade to sell money.

Of course, I may well have missed some other piece of evidence.

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#3 Re: China Fails to Keep Its Word

Postby Up2u » Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:58 am

I have seen some reports of Chinese of not cooperating 100% but I thought they were at least making the attempt.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... s-52158025

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#4 Re: China Fails to Keep Its Word

Postby Gaybutton » Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:12 pm

Up2u wrote: I thought they were at least making the attempt.

What is there to attempt? Seems simple enough to me. They either cooperate with the sanctions, sanctions they voted for, or they don't.

It's not supposed to be, "Ok, we'll cooperate with some, but not all."

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#5 Re: China Fails to Keep Its Word

Postby fountainhall » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:36 am

firecat69 wrote:I am not looking for a historical rendition of how the US has broken its word in the past. We are in the Here and Now.

I always find firecat69’s anti-China rhetoric somewhat amusing, the more so when he exhorts readers to forget history. The fact is it is impossible to forget history. It has not only shaped our present, it also in many cases threatens our future.

I have already in earlier posts outlined how the USA under Eisenhower broke the Armistice Agreement by placing nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula. Unquestionably this hastened the North’s programme to develop its own weapons programme.

I urge all readers to read through this Washington Post article from August 9 last year. History lesson: Why did Bill Clinton’s North Korea deal fail?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fac ... 60a9d01524

This outlines how a 1994 deal between the Clinton administration and North Korea unraveled when the USA failed to deliver what it had agreed. The specifics are simple. The NK would shutter its Yongbyon reactor and place its plutonium under the close watch of the IAEA. Thus the North would be unable to produce a nuclear bomb.

In return, the US would replace NK’s plutonium reactor with two light-water reactors. Until these had been completed, the US would supply NK with 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil every year. As with the Iran deal, other countries were involved. South Korea, Japan and a European Agency joined the US to create the organisation to implement the accord.

This deal was enacted through a Presidential Executive Decree rather than a formal treaty which would require Congressional approval. Hawks in Congress quickly made their displeasure felt. Yet the accord was working – up to a point. The IAEA was satisfied with progress. The fuel oil was delivered. But the US stalled on the light-water reactors. Some Clinton officials now concede they thought they would never have to build them as the regime would collapse before construction was complete.

Because of the lack of bipartisan support in the US, as soon as Bush became President the accord was reviewed. Colin Powell wanted it continued. Bush slapped him down. With the Bush neo-cons focused firmly on Iraq, the supply of fuel oil that was a key element in the Accord was stopped by the US. With the agreement broken, the North then kicked out the UN’s plutonium inspectors.

I have nothing but disgust for the NK leadership. But when its agreements with the USA have more than once been unilaterally broken by the US, its actions and its bellicose utterances become at least understandable to a degree. That’s history. That to a degree is why we are where we are. Not to accept that is simply nuts! And now the US expects China to solve the problem it helped create!

Trump, firecat69 and others can scream about China. But as Bismark pointed out, politics is the art of the possible. I am sure China has tightened its sanctions in accordance with the latest UN resolution. How far? I have no idea. But I have not seen any media reports of a substantial breach of sanctions. Whatever the true situation, every nation on the planet is perfectly well aware that China does not want the North to collapse. Equally it does not want a unified Korea. And it does not want an American presence with a nuclear umbrella over a unified peninsula.

Any negotiator that does not include these “facts” in his negotiating position is not going to get very far. Suggesting otherwise will be like bashing your head against a brick wall. You will get nowhere.

It appears that the South’s approach is now bearing a kernel of hope. Whether or not Trump’s rhetoric has helped create this lessening of tension, I again have no idea – but I doubt it.

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#6 Re: China Fails to Keep Its Word

Postby firecat69 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:09 am

You bring up historical BS that has nothing to do with Kim . 25 years ago China was a blip on the Economic World until Clinton and the Western World fell for their cheap labor and even cheaper goods . They were struggling not to be overthrown and had little interest in Kim' family.

This article is more in the here and now and I am sure Ma is not the only one in China making Billions because of trade with N Korea and they have no interest in shutting down Kim and reducing their bank balances.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/10/worl ... ohong.html

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#7 Re: China Fails to Keep Its Word

Postby firecat69 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:44 am

Just for those who forget it is Communist China not China. The government controls everything they can do, they have no freedoms except what the Communist leaders give to them. I'm the first to admit the economic miracle they have created is almost unbelievable, but I know the Chinese Government is just run by a bunch of despots who tell their citizens everything they can and cannot do and they change the rules any time they want.

Just ask any successful real estate broker in NYC, MIA etc how difficult it is to close a deal with a Chinese Citizen because the government controls what they can do with their money and they must jump through hoops sometime for months to purchase something in the US. If a Broker has 2 possible buyers , one from China and the other from Australia, US,United Kingdom etc the non Chinese will always get the best deal because they can move their money out and the Chinese have to jump through hoop to do what they want to do with their money. Communist China we should never forget!

This article is pretty interesting because it talks about the Chinese fueling construction of Condos in Thailand . Maybe Thai owners are more patient.

http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/society/a ... ney-abroad

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#8 Re: China Fails to Keep Its Word

Postby fountainhall » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:50 am

I have said before I will not engage in a general debate with firecat69 about China. We have some agreements but basically a very different view about the country. It's interesting to me that my brother, who generally holds very different views to mine on a wide range of political issues, felt almost the same way about China as firecat69. That is until he actually went there. He and his wife spent three weeks in China 4 years ago. They travelled to a lot of the country, including some Provinces and smaller towns that I have not visited. He returned with very different views. He now agrees much more with me on China issues than differs. firecat69 and others can say what they will about China. That's their privilege. But I challenge him to go and also spend three weeks in the country talking to lot of different people. He won't do it, of course. But if he did, I firmly believe he would change at least part of his tune.

Regarding North Korea, to suggest history is BS is plain silly. Basically what firecat69 proposes is this. Two bullies have historically been at odds with each other to the extent that decades ago many of their military and civilians were slaughtered. They continually have to be restrained. One, the USA, then slaps the other down 2 or 3 times because it, for whatever reasons, has decided it is just not going to fulfil its part of international agreements it has entered into with the other.

After the latest agreement was unilaterally broken, the other party continues its nuclear programme. Things become much more complex. The USA then expects the only real friend of its opponent, China, to step in and largely solve the problem it, the USA, has largely created! This in full knowledge that China has formal agreements with North Korea that it will come to its aid in the event of hostilities against it by other countries. So the USA happily breaks its agreements and then expects China to do the same and break those it has freely entered into.

Simplistic? Of course! But firecat69's original post talks about sanctions busting without providing proof and with the underlying implication that sanctions will do the job. Although this is going off on a slight talent, have sanctions ever really worked in international relations? To a certain extent you can say that they did so in Libya - although there it was more the promise of goodies to come. And then what happened? The Libyan strongman is toppled, that country is a total mess and an even greater haven for terrorists. You think North Korea has not studied that in detail? That is history.

As stated in a Brookings Institution Paper on the Libyan issue in 2004, long before the collapse -

The lesson is incontrovertible: to persuade a rogue regime to get out of the terrorism business and give up its weapons of mass destruction, we must not only apply pressure but also make clear the potential benefits of cooperation.

https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/why- ... -the-bomb/

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#9 Re: China Fails to Keep Its Word

Postby Gaybutton » Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:10 pm

fountainhall wrote:We have some agreements but basically a very different view about the country.

Be that as it may, I don't see how anyone's point of view about the country and people is relevant to China keeping its word about the sanctions against North Korea.

While I can understand the money issues, the part I can't understand is why China would tolerate a nuclear capable North Korea, right next door, any more than would the USA or any other country that might come under North Korea's nuclear threat.

Suppose a nuclear war between North Korea and the USA actually does occur. Many more countries than North Korea and the USA would be affected - and it wouldn't be positive for anyone. Even here in Thailand, I don't want to have to worry that the air I'm breathing now contains radioactive nuclear fallout.

In his latest documentary, "Stephen Hawking's Favorite Places 2," Hawking says the way things are going, he gives the human race about 1000 years from now to extinction.

The way things are going, that's longer than I give it, even without some maniac provoking a nuclear war.

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#10 Re: China Fails to Keep Its Word

Postby fountainhall » Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:33 pm

Gaybutton wrote:the part I can't understand is why China would tolerate a nuclear capable North Korea, right next door, any more than would the USA or any other country that might come under North Korea's nuclear threat.

Suppose a nuclear war between North Korea and the USA actually does occur. Many more countries than North Korea and the USA would be affected - and it wouldn't be positive for anyone. Even here in Thailand, I don't want to have to worry that the air I'm breathing now contains radioactive nuclear fallout.

The assumption in the above is that North Korea actually intends to start a nuclear war. I have no more insight into the mind of madman Kim than anyone else. But he will not be so mad as to fail to realise that just one nuclear missile launched anywhere from his country means the end of his regime. When you read the views of most experts, there is a general consensus that Kim believes that his nuclear capability is vital to keep his regime in power. Without it, he and his cohorts end up like Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein. I do not believe sanctions will get him to change his mind. So diplomacy on the future of the peninsula probably has to accept a nuclear reality.

Interesting that Russia is now being accused by Trump as having fed oil to the North Korean state against the sanctions resolution. And comments about Russia's actions go back several months. This from 3 weeks ago -

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 34126.html

So what is Trump going to do to stop Russia? Have Ambassador Haley rant again at the UN? As I stated in my earlier post, there are very few cases where international sanctions have been successful in stopping rogue regimes - unless there are major carrots offered in the diplomacy.


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