China and its Influence Now and in the Future

fountainhall
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#11 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby fountainhall » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:30 pm

I can only make a calculated guess at China's long term strategy. But Japan and South Korea certainly do not want nukes and I doubt if the present crisis will make them change their minds. Remember Eisenhower unilaterally broke the terms of the UN-negotiated 1953 Armistice by actually putting nukes into South Korea in 1958. This was not primarily because of fear of North Korea so much as fear of the flakiness and volatility of the man they had put in as President of South Korea, Syngman Rhee. These weapons remained on the peninsula until 1991. I don't recall either Japan or South Korea objecting to their withdrawal even in the knowledge of what the North was then doing.

As I have tried to make clear, the hand that exists is not of China's making, whatever some may believe. I agree China is in a position to do more but that "more" is limited. I am sure China has some nukes aimed at North Korea just as Kim probably has a couple or three aimed at Beijing. But it is futile to think that China can choke the North to death. What will that achieve? The North in this instance is not its 25 million plus people. It is an elite group of probably less than 100,000 scattered around the country, a group that lives like the old kings of communism despite the deprivations suffered by their people. The Kim dynasty has shown several times it has little concern about its own people. Its primary concern is its continuance in power. Short of obliterating the entire country, how do you take that lot out? I just don't believe it is possible. If perchance it is, I can see absolutely no way it can be done before the North launches its countermeasures against Seoul. Then the US is looking at millions of deaths of its own allies. Some have suggested in this forum that the North's weapons can be taken out before it can launch its own missiles. I'll bet a great deal that people like Tillerson, Mattis and others with sense absolutely do not agree. Mattis has already all but said so. The North has been preparing for this for many decades. It knows it will have seconds to carry such an attack out and its systems are bound to be on standby to meet that deadline.

Nor will China consider doing any such choking, IMHO - until it has reached some agreement with the USA about the long term future of the peninsula. That is as much in the US interest as it is in China's. If secret diplomacy is not going on now with China, then the US government as a whole is far more stupid than its twittering leader.

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#12 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby Dodger » Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:32 am

China Sucks...that pretty much sums that up.

Maybe if they stop infringing on everyone's copyrights and flooding the global markets with their cheap crap they can actually start gaining some respect.

They don't want U'S' military presence on their border, thus they will continue to support N. Korea (even if they pretend that they are not). Putin has his nose lodged permanently up Xi's ass which actually isn't a bad place for it.

The boys are cute. Small dicks but you just have to love those eyes.

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#13 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby firecat69 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:09 am

FH I guess we will have to disagree.

2015 the last year with complete figures China bought 90% of N Koreas exports and provided them with 90% of their imports. They can easily put a noose around their necks and cut off the little bitch potentate from getting his caviar and just about anything else that allows him to live a high style while his citizens starve.

At some point China will have to move in that direction, or they may not like what happens with Trump in charge.

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#14 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby fountainhall » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:04 am

So many people - me included - have very entrenched views and it is clear that a few days discussion on a forum like this has not changed any of those views. I find it extraordinary that the contra arguments all centre on China, despite the history, despite the future. But that is clearly the majority view. I do hope those holding such views will take a bit more time to research the actual facts (for many facts presented here have not been facts at all, merely the propaganda that interested governments - especially those which sat back and did nothing when they could have solved most of the problem many years ago - want us to believe), listen to the knowledgeable experts and then consider why they hold those views. Let's not allow ourselves to be brainwashed just as 99.99% of the North Korean population have been. After all, this is by far the most important international problem of our day. One stupid move at a time when delicate diplomacy is vital could tip the balance with disastrous consequences.

So I'll agree with Firecat. I'll end up with mutual disagreement. But I will agree with something else -

Dodger wrote:The boys are cute. Small dicks but you just have to love those eyes.

Dodger, you hit the nail on the head (at least in respect of the South Korea boys being cute - and yes, I love those eyes!)

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#15 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby firecat69 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:54 pm

Just to be clear. FH I don't disagree with any of the historical facts presented or the many mistakes that were made in the last 70 years that have been discussed. History is History.

But I do notice you did not rebut my 90% and 90% argument. Trump will never allow N Korea to have a nuclear missile that can hit the USA. He is not a rational man but only thinks in terms of him being the President that allowed a Nuclear Holocaust on USA shores.

In truth I doubt he gives a damn about S Korea and what losses they might experience . Once a shooting war starts N Korea will be wiped off the map. S Korea will lose millions but will survive and the result after many years will be exactly what China fears. A unified Korean Peninsula.

China has the ability to break the back of N Korea which would probably result in the destruction of Kim and thus a rational government in N Korea.

I know Pipe Dreams. But that is all we are left with now .

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#16 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby Gaybutton » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:32 pm

fountainhall wrote:If secret diplomacy is not going on now with China, then the US government as a whole is far more stupid than its twittering leader.

I certainly hope so. I think firecat69 is right about Trump if North Korea manages to put together nuclear warhead missiles that will actually work and that the bomb would actually detonate. I don't know how much Trump cares about South Korea, but I can't imagine him permitting the USA to become vulnerable to nuclear attack from North Korea - Not on his watch.

I think about it from Trump's point of view. I doubt he would tolerate the idea of going down in in history as the president who permitted the USA to be placed in nuclear attack jeopardy.

I still say the handwriting is on the wall. If negotiation fails to even get started, I believe the situation can only continue to escalate.

The one hope I have regarding China is their pronouncement saying if North Korea starts an attack, they're on their own. China will not intervene.

I just hope whoever made that pronouncement didn't have his fingers crossed . . .

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#17 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby Dodger » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:41 pm

Fortunately, for everyone's sake, Trump is relying on his Generals to determine the best strategy for dealing with N. Korea and China moving forward. If he could only keep his mouth shut in the process.

I believe that time is on our side and Kim knows it. The longer the sanctions stay in place the more the North Korea economy and his military suffers, the more unrest you can expect within the N. Korean ranks, and more time for South Korea, the U.S. and other allies in the region to continue bolstering tactical defensive measures (anti-missile) to offset the N. Korean threats. In-other-words, the longer this plays out the weaker they become and the stronger we (S. Korea/U.S.) get.

Frankly, it doesn't matter if Kim develops capabilities to launch a nuclear missile to U.S. shores or not because, if launched, it would never make it farther than 100 miles from the launching pad. We (the U.S.) are only using this potential threat as leverage to get what we really want - and that's to end Kim's regime and create the reunification of the Korean peninsula under U.S. alliance. Of course the bilateral agreement between S. Korea and the U.S. which has been in place since the end of WW II would expand to cover the entire peninsula, thus shifting the U.S. controlled DMZ from the 38th parallel up to the border of China which is the icing on the cake. China doesn't like it...Russian doesn't like it...and Kim is being eaten alive by paranoia just imagining it.

tic...tic...tic

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#18 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby Captain Kirk » Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:57 pm

Does nobody else find all this stuff just extraordinary? I do.
All of the previous posts outlining what this or that country is doing to, or doing in, some other peoples countries. History is littered with it. Yet it can only be a very small number of people in ANY country who would want their country to be interfering in the lives of others and yet somehow these small number of people, by hook or by crook, find themselves either being elected to make those decisions or find a way of imposing their will on the decent people who just want to get on with their lives.
How the fuck did it come to this?

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#19 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby fountainhall » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:57 am

I thought this thread was now dead - but it has rapidly revived!

firecat69 wrote:I do notice you did not rebut my 90% and 90% argument

Correct! Frankly I have not paid much attention to trade issues for the simple reason I don't think North Korea cares much about them. Of course it wants the foreign currency. But it has shown several times that it is perfectly happy to have starving and malnourished children on the world's TV screens whilst the cash that should have gone to food purchases and improvements in agriculture have been spent for military purposes.

From what I have quickly read, the percentage of trade between the two nations seems to vary between 80% and 90% - still a huge proportion. But other nations trade with the North - even Thailand. I note also that despite the talk of the "axis of evil", the two most recent years when the US sold the greatest number of exports to North Korea were under George Bush's watch - 2002 and 2008!

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5790.html

I have no doubt that Korean agents have been at work in other countries where their trade is growing to open up new avenues.

I don't believe the North can be starved. Life can be made far harder for the 99.99% of the population I noted earlier. But the brainwashing in the North is far greater than most posting here seem to realise. It is absolutely nothing like the old Soviet Union or even Cuba. It is “1984” and “The Stepford Wives” writ large nationwide. Even some defectors who have found their way through China, Laos, Thailand and then on to South Korea have actually gone back because they cannot bear the fact that they have let down their dear Leader. I can cite examples but perhaps you can google several TV documentaries on the subject.

The other reason is the relative ineffectiveness of sanctions. This is a fascinating article from April 2017 on how sanctions against regimes are increasingly less effective as time goes on. A few extracts –

In our post-Cold War society, economic sanctions have become one of the defining features of the political landscape. Since the early 1990s, the US, Europe and other developed economies have employed sanctions on other nations more than 500 times, seeking to assert their influence on the global stage without resorting to military interventions . . . Ethics aside, however, the proliferation of sanctions cases over the past two decades has also sparked extensive academic debate over their effectiveness as a tool in international diplomacy. In terms of changing behaviour, sanctions have a poor track record, registering a modest 20-30 percent success rate at best . . .

Despite their widespread use on the international stage, economic sanctions are largely ineffective in achieving their objectives. What’s more, data has shown that the longer sanctions are in place, the less likely they are to be effective, as the targeted state tends to adapt to its new economic circumstances instead of changing its behaviour . .

Due to the isolationist nature of the secretive [North Korean] state, it is difficult to quantify the full effect sanctions are having, although we can assume they are at least relatively effective at limiting the net transfer of resources to North Korea. Sadly, those who are likely to suffer most from this shortage of resources are those who have already been victimised by songbun, the regime’s stringent political classification system.

“Assuming that foreign sanctions have been effective in inflicting economic shocks, it is safe to say that the victims will always be the same suspects that the North Korean Government wants to round up”, Eberstadt [Nicholas Eberstadt, a founding board member at the US Committee for Human Rights in North Korea] explained. “All of the suffering takes place among groups that the North Korean Government is not sorry to see perish.”

https://www.worldfinance.com/special-re ... -sanctions

The statistics I can see suggest that China has been reducing some of its trade. China approved the latest UN resolution on sanctions – I believe the first time it has done so. So I expect it will carry out its agreement and continue to make further reductions.

Gaybutton wrote:The one hope I have regarding China is their pronouncement saying if North Korea starts an attack, they're on their own. China will not intervene.

In the event of a US/North Korean war, I cannot see China intervening under any circumstances – even with a US first strike. China will loudly condemn such an action but its leadership can have no interest in being part of World War 3.

Dodger wrote:The longer the sanctions stay in place the more the North Korea economy and his military suffers, the more unrest you can expect within the N. Korean ranks

No matter how much the economy suffers, the key military will remain isolated from its effects. The top military brass, the ones who will launch the missiles and direct a war, are not going to abandon Kim. He has them under his thumb. Nor will the people rise up against the regime. There may be a flood of refugees feeling north, but it really is important to remember what I mentioned earlier - that the world of “1984” is almost a paradise compared to life for the poor folk in North Korea.

Captain Kirk wrote:Yet it can only be a very small number of people in ANY country who would want their country to be interfering in the lives of others . . .

Sadly such people tend to be the charismatic ones who are able to persuade others that they are right. Hasn’t it been like this throughout history? Colonialism was once regarded as of benefit to the colonized nations! “The white man’s burden” as Kipling described it, despite colonialism being conquest and rape under a different name. The world is now living with the mess left by those same colonisers. Witness the British lawyer largely ignorant of the sub-continent and working with out-of-date maps who was given six weeks to draw up the line for the division of India into two nations. Result? One of the largest mass migrations in history and well over a million dead in an orgy of slaughter.

Not just extraordinary, I think. It’s madness that we cannot find a way to live on this tiny planet in some form of peace and harmony.

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#20 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby Dodger » Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:57 am

I agree that history shows us that using economic sanctions for matters of national security has limited effects and usually takes years to actually have a measurable impact on the country being sanctioned, but I really don't think this is the primary U.S./S. Korea/Japanese objective. I think they are using the new set of sanctions to buy our generals more time to quietly slide the pieces of the chess board where they want them. The U.S. and Korean Army's have already installed a THAAD (Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense) interceptor pointed North which already has Kim wearing an adult diaper at night, and the U.S. Missile Defense Agency told Congress last June that 52 more THAAD Interceptors were being delivered to the Army bringing the total to 210 since THAAD was developed back in 2011.

If one THAAD on the DMZ pointed North has Kim stumbling around in his pajama's after seeing demons...ordering his generals to murder his relatives out of pure paranoia... and sending his servants back and forth to the baby supply store for more disposable diapers, how do you think he'll react when a dozen more THAAD are lining the border pointed at his palace bedroom. You just have to know the statisticians are cranking out the data related to projected civilian collateral damage based on different sets of variables, i.e., 4 THAAD @ 99.999999% Effectiveness = mean avg. of 108,276 casualties in Seoul within first 24 hours, 8 THAAD @ 99.999999% Effectiveness = mean avg. 58.762 causalities in Seoul within first 24 hours, 46 THAAD @ 99.999999% Effectiveness = mean avg. of 405 causalities in first 24 hours. etc. No data is being collected showing the statistical probability of civilian causality rates in Seoul after 24 hours because it won't last more than 24 hours.

All said...the only real success will be had through diplomatic efforts - not bombs going boom in the night. Hopefully something unforeseen will occur to allow this to happen. It certainly won't be Trump and Kim.


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