China and its Influence Now and in the Future

fountainhall
Posts: 723
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:45 am
Location: Bangkok
Liked: 75 times
Been liked: 231 times

#21 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby fountainhall » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:57 am

Dodger wrote:I think they are using the new set of sanctions to buy our generals more time to quietly slide the pieces of the chess board where they want them.

Good point and almost certainly true!

Dodger wrote:The U.S. and Korean Army's have already installed a THAAD (Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense) interceptor pointed North which already has Kim wearing an adult diaper at night

There is a slight problem - the South under its new President says he does not want them! He has, however, accepted them. But they are not the be all and end all of missile defense, even when deployed along with other systems -

The system has not been tested in battle, and analysts are aware that an enemy could try to counter it by sending a swarm of missiles. “That’s always a problem with any air defense system, that you can simply overwhelm it” . . . North Korea [relies] on masses of missiles.

So THAAD is good, but no panacea. . . Most countries that try to build missile defense systems, aim for defense in depth. So in addition to THAAD, you might have sea-based Aegis missiles, that fire from warships and can cover other areas and are much more mobile. And then you have shorter-range Patriot missiles. You can connect all of these weapons to the same sensor and command network so you can coordinate your defenses.

https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-05-03/ ... outh-korea

There are two more possible problems. THAAD depends on radar guidance. Unquestionably Kim has masses of missiles pointed south stretched along the border area. Their distance from Seoul will therefore stretch from around a minimum of 35 to, say, 80 miles. How long does it actually take a ground-to-ground missile to travel 35 miles? I have no idea, but I imagine it is under two minutes. I also have no idea if THAAD and its radar systems are capable of locking on to a huge battery of missiles and being fired within that time period. I hope so!

Secondly, it is well known that Kim has an arsenal of the most horrific chemical and biological weapons. How these would be delivered and where they are stored, again I have no idea. But the North has shown its capability of infiltrating the South time and time again. It just needs a few embedded agents with a small amount of this stuff to get it into the atmosphere or the water supply or whatever. If not that way, then again with one or two missiles escaping the THAAD defenses.

Dodger wrote:All said...the only real success will be had through diplomatic efforts - not bombs going boom in the night.

Agree 100%

Dodger
Posts: 594
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:58 am
Liked: 8 times
Been liked: 90 times

#22 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby Dodger » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:35 pm

Fountainhall, you raise some very valid points.

I don't think there's any missile system (or combinations of systems) which would provide 100% protection against hundreds of missiles being firing simultaneously, but at least THAAD and other offshore systems such as Regis could provide a modest level of support and at least giving S. Korea a roof over its head in the event of a N. Korean missile attack. The option of course is for S. Korea to launch a preemptive strike which many military experts seemed to be suggesting last year. In any event, it's not that S. Korea doesn't want THAAD interceptors in their country - it's that they don't want to pay for them. Go figure!

firecat69
Posts: 638
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 7:29 am
Liked: 1 time
Been liked: 9 times

#23 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby firecat69 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:43 pm

Problem is the possibilities are much narrower with Trump in the White House. Will he grow up and realize that an attack is not possible without widespread destruction or will he only care about how he appears to the world (weak).

We slowed down Iran, but does anyone think they won't get nuclear weapons?. Countries such as Soviet Union now Russia understand the deterrent but never intend to use the weapons.

What do we really know about Afghanistan and the possibility of their use.

But the real problem is that when you have rogue nations with nuclear technology, there is no way to know about them supplying dirty bombs etc to terrorist organizations.

Certainly N Korea is a Rogue Nation , but they must know they would be obliterated by US Power including Nuclear if needed. Kim wants to hold on to power and his lifestyle , neither of which he will continue there is a shooting war.

Are there any adults in the world that can solve this problem. It is beginning to look less and less that there are!

fountainhall
Posts: 723
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:45 am
Location: Bangkok
Liked: 75 times
Been liked: 231 times

#24 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby fountainhall » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:37 pm

I accept this will be contentious - but want to throw out a couple of thoughts. I have this feeling that nuclear weapons are not the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow that opens unlimited possibilities for offence, for the reason firecat69 and others have mentioned. Only one nation has actually used two nukes when it happened to be the only one with such weapons. The proliferation of ownership now includes the USA, Russia, China, Britain, France, India and Pakistan. Few would argue convincingly that Israel does not have nukes, and unless somehow stopped, North Korea will sooner rather than later.

Yet none has been used since 1945. I remember the 1960s when there were times we were all convinced the world was about to end because of a nuclear war between the USA and the Soviets. The tensions between India and Pakistan have been simmering for decades and some land remains in dispute thanks to the incompetency of the British as they carved up the sub-continent. There must have been temptation on both sides to drop the odd one or two, but it would be in the knowledge that they would receive as much as they gave. Similarly Israel could have used nukes when it took out Iraq's French-built nuclear reactor in 1981. It didn't, opting instead for conventional weapons.

International treaties are going to make it very difficult for any state, even rogue nations, to use a nuke if only because the retaliation is likely to have far worse effects. I don't believe Kim cares much for his people. I don't believe he cares anything for South Korea. I do believe he cares a great deal for himself. I also believe he wants to be liked by the international community rather than loathed - just like his father and grandfather before him. And if that if the case, diplomacy can work. Interestingly, CNN has been airing interviews with its present correspondent who has spent a lot of time in Pyongyang and Mike Chinoy, its previous hugely respected Beijing Bureau Chief from 1987 to 1995 who visited Pyongyang 17 times. He is now the Senior Fellow at the USC U.S.-China Institute. Both stated diplomacy can work and must be made to work.

Of course I do not advocate basing strategy on the word of foreign correspondents, But with so few able to visit the North and with access to some officials on a regular basis, this pair has a near unique insight. Their views should at least be part of the mix.

Secondly, for about 40 years from 1950, we lived in a bi-polar world with each pole having nukes. For the following 15-20 years or so , the USA was the sole world power. Now we are entering a hugely complex tri-polar world with each again having nukes. Despite each pole having its own objectives and policies, I do believe tri-polarity bodes better for the world with far less possibility of nukes being employed.

Dodger
Posts: 594
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:58 am
Liked: 8 times
Been liked: 90 times

#25 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby Dodger » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:52 pm

All sides understand that war is not an option, and that of course includes N. Korea who would be immediately annihilated. That only leaves one option as a solution, and that would be "Compromise".

My projection is that Kim will be allowed to maintain a miniature nuke or two in his missile arsenal that he claims is needed for the defense of his nation for the mere fact that he will never agree to remove all his missiles and there is nothing anyone (including the U.S. or China) can do to make him. If they (N. Korea) were to agree to UN monitoring of their missile development program similar to Iran sanctions would probably start to be relieved over time... and basically, we will be right back where we started. North Korea will never completely dump its nuclear program. The Chinese will never cut trade with N. Korea. The U.S. will never stop the joint military exercises with S. Korea or compromise its alliance with the South. So there you have it. Kim will have a few miniature nukes which he'll never use. The UN will continue its sanctions. China will continue to pretend that it is enforcing the sanctions, and Trump will go back to tweeting nonsense like a 9 year old.

User avatar
Gaybutton
Site Admin
Posts: 13684
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Thailand
Liked: 1 time
Been liked: 414 times

#26 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby Gaybutton » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:01 pm

Dodger wrote:he will never agree to remove all his missiles

Suppose he does agree. I don't know what would make anyone think Kim would live up to his agreements.

It reminds me of the meeting Harry Truman, less than two weeks into his presidency, had with Molotov. Truman immediately lashed into Molotov, accusing him and Stalin of breaking the agreements they had made with Roosevelt at Yalta.

And indignant Molotov said, "I have never been talked to like that in my life."

Truman's response: "Well, if you and the generalissimo would keep your agreements, you won't get talked to like that."

firecat69
Posts: 638
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 7:29 am
Liked: 1 time
Been liked: 9 times

#27 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby firecat69 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:15 am

Interesting on many of the Sunday shows today, people such as Michael Hayden https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Hayden_(general) seem to think this recent explosion by Kim was more of a message to China and they might just get it.

In addition it appears the US is ready to squeeze all the banks doing business with Kim including Chinese which would really hurt N Korea.

Let's hope!

fountainhall
Posts: 723
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:45 am
Location: Bangkok
Liked: 75 times
Been liked: 231 times

#28 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby fountainhall » Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:34 am

firecat69 wrote:Countries such as Soviet Union now Russia understand the deterrent but never intend to use the weapons.

Respectfully I don't believe this is true, at least with the old Soviet Union The closest the world came to a nuclear war was not just during the Cuban missile crisis but also in 1969 during the Sino-Soviet border war. And there were other "near misses", as it were - all US initiatives.

It is October 1969: China is preparing for a nuclear attack by the Soviet Union. Lin [Biao], second to Mao, orders 940,000 soldiers, 4,000 planes and 600 vessels to scatter from their bases and the transfer of major archives from Beijing to the southwest.

Then US president Richard Nixon intervenes. Secretary of state Henry Kissinger tells the Soviet ambassador in Washington that as soon as the Soviets set off their first missile against China, the US will launch nuclear missiles at 130 Soviet cities . . .

The background to the dramatic scenario is this.

On August 20, the Soviet ambassador in Washington told Kissinger of their plans and asked the US to remain neutral. Wishing to stop the attack, the White House leaked the story to The Washington Post. Its edition of August 28 reported that the Soviet Union planned to launch missiles with hundreds of tonnes of nuclear material on Beijing, Changchun , Anshan and its missile-launch centres of Jinquan, Xichang and Lop Nor.

In late September and October, war fever in China reached its peak. Lin ordered the army to move from its bases and residents of major cities to dig shelters and store food.

In the final step before the attack, Moscow sought the opinion of Washington. Nixon saw the Soviet Union as his main threat and wanted a strong China against it; he feared the effect of a nuclear war on 250,000 US troops in the Asia-Pacific. On October 15, Kissinger told the Soviet ambassador in Washington that the US would not be neutral and would attack Soviet cities in retaliation.

Bluff or not, it worked. ''The Americans betrayed us,' the ambassador said. They called off the attack on October 20 and began negotiations with China in Beijing. The crisis was over.

The American refusal was in part revenge for what happened in reverse five years before - a Soviet refusal to participate in an attack on China's nascent nuclear programme.

President John Kennedy said in October 1961 that, armed with its nuclear bomb, China would swallow up Southeast Asia.

The US wanted to attack China's nuclear installations before it developed a bomb and saw the Sino-Soviet split in 1961 as the perfect opportunity for a joint operation.

On July 14, 1963, an American emissary in Moscow gave a detailed presentation of China's nuclear programme and proposed a joint operation to stop it. But Soviet president Nikita Khruschev said the programme posed no threat.

China successfully tested its first bomb in 1964.

This article from the 12 May 2010 South China Morning Post is well worth a read.

http://www.scmp.com/article/714064/nixo ... ear-attack

firecat69
Posts: 638
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 7:29 am
Liked: 1 time
Been liked: 9 times

#29 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby firecat69 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:37 pm

FH. Your ability to pull out articles from 1-70 years ago to support your arguments is amazing. But truth be told I don't care. For me to read those articles and either agree or disagree with their findings or suppositions, I would have to go back to those years and find articles that contravened their supposed fact or suppositions. Then I would have to balance the arguments in order to come up with my own beliefs.

If I was a historian that would be interesting but I am not. The China of 50-70 years ago or even 30 years ago was a completely different country especially in how the government was or is able to keep control of their massive population .Remembering now that they are a Communist Country where the ruling class makes all the decisions . Once they moved toward a capitalistic economic model, they must continue on that journey or rebellion would be possible as the masses suffer.

I truly belief China can strangle N Korea and it is in their long term interest. I belief the next step by Tump will be to cut off banking avenues for China.

As big and as rich as China has become they rely on US banking institutions . Yes the US would suffer greatly. They would not be able to buy $300 60 inch tv's etc. Frankly I think that would be great, because IMHO the average US citizen in reality has not benefited by our massive trade and deficit with China. On the other hand , China would suffer the loss of a massive number of jobs and possible rebellion against the Communist Dictators.

You see I always try to remember when discussing China that they are really Communist China a country where their citizens have no rights except what the Communist Rulers at the time say they have.

firecat69
Posts: 638
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 7:29 am
Liked: 1 time
Been liked: 9 times

#30 Re: China and its Influence Now and in the Future

Postby firecat69 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:48 pm

Easy for some to forget how the Communist Chinese Government treats its citizens.

This is one of hundreds of articles written by many respected news sources before, during and after the Olympics that show cases the IRON HAND of the Communist Government rules with.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-olymp ... 3220070605


Return to “Everything Else”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: PeterUK and 9 guests