What happened to North Korea?

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#1 What happened to North Korea?

Postby Gaybutton » Thu Apr 25, 2013 11:39 pm

Now that the 24/7 news coverage of the Boston Marathon bombing is beginning to slow down, has anybody noticed there has been hardly a word about North Korea? What happened to North Korea? Maybe the bluster, bombast, and threats have ground to a halt because they figure nobody is bothering to listen.

There also has been no coverage that I've seen of the US Supreme Court and the gay marriage laws, although there is still the better part of two months to go before the opinion is handed down.

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#2 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby Bob » Fri Apr 26, 2013 7:44 am

With respect to North Korea, god only knows but more than likely it was the unusually strong pronouncements by China's leaders that likely put a damper in the growing and bizarre threats of Baby Kim and his fellow wackos.

Other than internal conferences and opinion (majority and dissent) writing, nothing more will be publicly heard about the two cases from the Supreme Court until the decision is issued. And that'll likely be right before the current term of the court ends at the end of June.

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#3 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby Alex » Sat Apr 27, 2013 12:42 am

The Fat Kid must have been crying inconsolably, seeing that the Boston Bombers have stolen the spotlight from him. Som nam na.

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#4 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby Jun » Sat Apr 27, 2013 6:48 am

They still need to stop the fat nutter before his Nuclear weapons can actually be fitted on missiles.

Why do the Chinese tolerate this nonsense in their backyard?

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#5 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby fountainhall » Sun Jul 30, 2017 2:28 pm

I have reactivated this thread because I suggest it is now way too important to leave in in the Consequences of Trump's Win thread. Yet Trump inevitably is a pivotal figure in the on-going drama.

This morning he tweeted another of his idiotic comments that shows he still knows little of the North Korea problem and has no ideas how to rein in Kim's missile and nuclear ambitions. Funny how after his chocolate cake with China's President Xi, he seems not to have learned the 10-minute lesson given to him by Xi on the complexity of the North Korea issue.

“After listening for 10 minutes, I realized it’s not so easy. I felt pretty strongly that they had a tremendous power [over] North Korea. ... But it’s not what you would think.”

Yet he tweets this -

Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet...
6:29 AM - Jul 30, 2017

Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
...they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk. We will no longer allow this to continue. China could easily solve this problem!
6:35 AM - Jul 30, 2017

The idea that China alone can solve the problem is so utterly laughable it illustrates Trump's childish view of international relations. The only President who could have succeeded in reining in North Korea was Clinton near the end of his term. He sent his Secretary of State to Pyongyang and talks progressed. Then George Bush assumed office, cut off all talks, called the North Koreans part of an axis of evil (true, but you don't say that if you need other countries to deal with them) and then insisted on six party talks when Kim 2 would have settled for a continuation of the talks with Washington. Obama was no better and now here's Trump saying the Chinese can solve the problem!

Every diplomat and politician with any idea of the nature of the Korean conflict and how it has reached the present state knows perfectly well that China cannot - and more to the point, will not - solve the problem on it own. China will not tolerate many millions of brainwashed refugees on its border with North Korea. Nor will it accept a united peninsula under a government from Seoul with American forces on its doorstep. It's really very odd to many observers that Kennedy took the world almost to the brink of nuclear war because the Soviets had bases and probably nukes in Cuba. Kennedy received universal praise for his solution to the problem. Now replace China for Cuba and the USA for the Soviets. What is the difference?

Trump has had two years to formulate a basic Cuba policy and six months to refine one. He hasn't got anything! He can't use force - everyone knows that. He can only hope for a diplomatic solution. Yet that requires lengthy, delicate, patient and tactful diplomacy that must be for the most part confidential. Ranting tweets only encourage the North, annoy China - and probably mightily piss off the new government in South Korea which has decided to follow an earlier path taken in the 90s of opening dialogue, a path that seemed to be bringing some degree of success. And then Bush came to power!

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#6 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby Gaybutton » Sun Jul 30, 2017 3:52 pm

My guess: Whatever the stupidest thing to do is, and the stupidest way to do it, you can count on that being exactly what Trump will do.
______________________________________

The North Korea threat: What can Trump do?

Nicole Gaouette and Zachary Cohen, CNN

July 29, 2017

Washington (CNN) - North Korea's latest intercontinental ballistic missile launch has raised alarm across Asia and in Washington.
Pyongyang, with its ruthless leader and laser focus on attaining nuclear weapons that can strike the US, is arguably the toughest foreign policy challenge facing the Trump administration.

North Korea scares the region and has stymied past US presidents. Trump administration officials have warned that "all options are on the table" for responding to Pyongyang. It's fair to say none of them are good, but what they?

1. Economic pressure

The US and United Nations have introduced sanctions that make it hard for North Korea to use the international financial system or for its businesses to function abroad. But they haven't changed Pyongyang's trajectory.

Now, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has put countries on notice that if they or their companies help North Korea -- also known as the DPRK -- they'll face penalties. That mostly means China, which accounts for 90% of North Korea's trade.

That doesn't seem to be working yet.

North Korea has been accused of funding its missile program through illicit dealings across the globe -- with crimes such as hacking banks, selling weapons, dealing drugs, counterfeiting cash and even trafficking endangered species.

These operations are believed to rake in hundreds of millions of dollars and allow Pyongyang to pursue its nuclear ambitions as sanctions cripple the country's economy, according to analysts who spoke to CNN.

Experts say shutting off that revenue may prove difficult, like playing a game of international whack-a-mole, due to North Korea's adaptive overseas network used to nest and disguise their illicit business amongst legal trade activities.

2. Cyber and information wars

This could involve penetrating North Korea with news about the outside world, to undermine the regime's control. Another approach would be cyber attacks to disrupt Pyongyang's weapons programs -- though experts say that would only delay, rather than stop them.

3. Diplomatic dialogue

Previous US administrations have tried dialogue -- past talks have included South Korea, Japan, China and Russia. They haven't worked. For 20 years, North Korea has promised to drop its nuclear program in exchange for aid and sanctions relief -- and then broken those promises.

Earlier this year, Trump said he would be willing to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un "under the right circumstances" to defuse tensions over North Korea's nuclear program.

No sitting US president has ever met with the leader of North Korea while in power, and the idea is extremely controversial, but some lawmakers have said they would be willing to support the idea following Pyongyang's latest missile test.

4. An international pressure campaign

This is new, and we'll see how it works. In April, Tillerson asked all UN members to fully implement sanctions; to cut or downgrade diplomatic relations with North Korea; and increase its financial isolation. And he issued a threat to UN members that don't comply.

"It's a pressure campaign that has a knob on it," Tillerson told State Department employees May 3. "I'd say we're at about dial setting five or six right now."

Though Tillerson did not specify how those third-country sanctions would work, part of the strategy involves asking countries around the globe to scale back their diplomatic relationships with Pyongyang.

5. Regime change

The Trump administration has sent mixed messages on this. In April, Tillerson said regime change -- removing leader Kim Jong Un -- wasn't the goal.

In July, CIA Chief Mike Pompeo said it might be. He said that while a denuclearized Korean peninsula would be great, the most dangerous thing about those weapons is the man who wields them: "So from the administration's perspective," he said, "the most important thing we can do is separate those two. Right?"

Pompeo admitted during a Q&A that there are risks to this approach, namely, what would come next?

6. Military force

No one wants this, but the Trump administration says it's ready to use muscle to back its diplomacy. Analysts raise a couple of issues, one being former Secretary of State Colin Powell's Pottery Barn rule of foreign relations: you break it, you own it. A military operation against North Korea would saddle the US with expanded costs and responsibility on the peninsula. It would roil Asia and China, perhaps with unintended consequences. And while all war game scenarios show the US winning a military confrontation, that victory comes at the cost of hundreds of thousands of deaths, mostly in South Korea.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/28/polit ... index.html

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#7 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby Jun » Sun Jul 30, 2017 3:57 pm

Simply engaging in fake negotiations whilst they develop their nuclear weapons capability & missile technology would be fiddling whilst Rome burns.

Fat Kim needs to be taken out before matters get any worse. Either by a special operation or a full on military attack. Since Russia & China share land borders with North Korea, the US need some kind of understanding with them on the endgame. I believe the US constitution prohibits assassination of foreign leaders, or something like that. Hopefully Trump might be a president who may disregard that.

As for China not wanting US troops over the border in a united Korea, well this may well be true. If it is, I think the Chinese are making a big miscalculation, since:
1 One Korea with US troops is not going to be attacking China any time soon and would be a much safer neighbour than fat Kim with nuclear weapons. OK, Trump seems to be almost as dumb as fat Kim, but we trust Trump will be gone in about 3.5 years.
2 One Korea will not have nuclear weapons & the need for US troops reduces once North Korea is gone.

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#8 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby Gaybutton » Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:15 pm

Jun wrote:Fat Kim needs to be taken out before matters get any worse.

I agree, but I don't limit it to just Kim being taken out. Who knows what kind of asshole would replace him? Whether Kim remains in place or not, it's the missile and nuclear program that needs to be taken out - and steps taken to see that there is no way North Korea could ever resurrect it.

Just how to accomplish that, I don't know, but one thing Bush made clear to every country in the world right after 9-11 - "You're either with us or against us."

I get very annoyed when so many countries depend on the USA to help with their defense, but when it comes to many of those same countries supporting the USA when it's the USA that comes under threat, that seems to be a different story.

The CNN article above, under the "Military Force" option, says "No one wants this." CNN, I'll thank you not to speak for me. I don't want military force to have to be used, but if North Korea gets missiles capable of reaching the USA with nuclear warheads, that's when you can really start laughing. And countries just sitting back and doing absolutely nothing about it - maybe they need to wake up and figure out that the USA isn't the only country North Korea can try to intimidate.

I believe if it really does come to military force, both China and Russia won't do a damned thing other than protest. I for sure believe neither would join in and help us.

I don't believe South Korea would actually be attacked if the USA can launch preemptive strikes knowing attacks against South Korea can be prevented before such attacks could even be launched. I wouldn't want to risk South Korean lives, but I just don't see how the world can possibly tolerate North Korea gaining nuclear attack capability.

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#9 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby firecat69 » Sun Jul 30, 2017 5:44 pm

I guess I'm in the minority on this. I believe people and countries always act in their own interest . It is not in their interest to actually attack the USA because they know they would be incinerated . In fact in quick order we could destroy almost all of N Korea . However it is in their interest to threaten the US in order to maintain power and control of their country. Kim does not appear to be stupid since he has brought them much further in capability in much shorter time than his father and grandfather. I always worry about the Military Industrial Complex needing a way to continue to spend $Billions .

Since WW 2, our successes in military incursions has been limited at best and pitiful in many cases. Certainly with Idiot Trump in charge we must worry about him tweeting a Nuclear Attack and relying on the Generals to refuse his order which in itself would be dangerous for our Democracy.

On separate note yesterday a Right Wing Journalist Hugh Hewitt had the longest interview with Admiral James Stavridis I have seen. I was fascinated by the depth of his knowledge and consider it very sad he would not be willing to work for Trump



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#10 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby fountainhall » Sun Jul 30, 2017 6:12 pm

There was no single cause of the Korean conflict. It was, from even before it started, a mess that has just got uglier and uglier. A look at history shows quite clearly that the USA was largely responsible for creating much of that mess. In the post-World War order in Asia, the mandarins in Washington had little clue about Asia, its history, its peoples, its tensions and its hopes. It was overly concerned with controlling the expansion of communism in Europe to worry about Asia. It put Syngman Rhee into power in Seoul, a man who had lived for decades in the USA. When elections were held, he became President with 92.3% of the vote! But Rhee was to be yet another in a line that would later include Marcos and Suharto and Pinochet and others – a repressive, massively corrupt, authoritarian dictator propped up by the USA. Then strangely, with the Soviets aiding and providing arms to Kim Il sung, the US refused to do the same for its southern ally. Result? Invasion by the North and virtual occupation of the entire peninsula. The rest is well known.

The world - and especially Asia - has changed massively since the USA could dictate events on its own. There is now no single solution to the North Korea problem. Since some have been mentioned, let me counter them with my own observations.

1. Economic pressure
Yes, this will work - but it will just be a minor irritation. Kim and the entire elite will merely channel more of their funding resources into the military machine and leave much of the population on starvation rations. Kim has at his disposal an army of almost 1 million men and reservists of 5.5 million. They will be looked after. His father did the same and the aid agencies were appalled at the result of several famines. But nothing changed.

2. Cyber and Information Wars
Everyone in power is perfectly well aware that the North Koreans have been brainwashed more than almost any other country in the world. They not only believe in their leaders. They believe they have some sort of divine right. Ask any defector. Some defectors have even voluntarily returned to the North because they believed they were not being true to the great Kims! Nothing is going to undermine that regime’s control.

3. Diplomatic Dialogue
I truly believe this is the only way to come up with a solution. So I’ll return to this at the end.

4. International Pressure Campaign
68 countries presently have diplomatic relations. These include Benin, Botswana, Burkino Faso, Cuba, Iran, Israel, Libya, Somalia, Syria and Zimbabwe. Pressure exerted by that bunch is not going to concern Kim one tiny bit. On the other hand Australia, the EU, Canada. Japan and Russia are also on the list. But does anyone seriously believe that most of these countries have not already been exerting diplomatic pressure? That boggles the mind! If a nuke can hit the USA, it can hit Vancouver, all of Japan, most of Russia. All of Asia as we know it, and many other states. Does anyone really believe that Kim gives a hoot if many on that list decide to pull their embassies out of Pyongyang. That’s more dumb thinking.

5. Regime Change
“Fat Kim needs to be taken out . . .” Fair point. But how in hell do you do that? Removing Kim 3 isn’t going to happen unless the USA or some other country already has a highly elite force already under cover in the country. But as GB points out, remove Kim and who replaces him? A brain-washed general? There is an entire cadre of high officials loyal to Kim. Take him out and you have to take the lot out. Who then takes power? Someone as bad?

6. Military Force
Trump can talk all he wants about using “muscle”. The fact is – and this cannot be stressed enough – military might is not an option in this case. Period!

OK. The USA and its various spy systems will know where most of the nukes are hidden and perhaps also quite a few of the other missile defenses. Those advocating military force seem totally to forget that three generations of Kims have been anticipating an invasion for many decades. It is known that there are 13,000+ missiles, most hidden, aimed at Seoul and no doubt the South’s other major cities. Even if a US first strike disables a large percentage of the North’s arsenal, anyone believing that it will totally defang the North is in complete cloud-cuckoo land. Seoul is only 35 miles from the DMZ. It has a population of 9.9 million. The population of the 6 other major cities is over 14 million. If just 100 of those missiles got through, much of Seoul as we know it would be destroyed and hundreds of thousands killed – if not more. As TIME magazine reported in 2003, all this would take place in just 30 minutes. Then assume that 1,000 missiles got through. The prospect is frightening. The USA has also to remember that it has about 30,000 military personnel just outside Seoul. What is to happen to them? Are they to be withdrawn? If so, what sort of signal does that send to mad Kim?

More on Diplomatic Dialogue
First China. I regret I don’t buy Jun’s argument. Mao was one of the most paranoid, insecure leaders of the last century. When he took power, he was afraid of internal dissent and so sent Kang Sheng his henchman around the country to wipe out all resistance. He was fearful of Chiang Kai-shek who made no bones about his plans to return and re-conquer China. He knew that Chiang’s lobby in the USA was very strong and he saw the USA prop up Taiwan for decades. He heard the loud anti-Communist rhetoric spreading across the USA. He saw what the US was doing in Laos, Vietnam and then Cambodia.

Xi Jin-ping’s father was a comrade of Mao on the Long March. Xi himself has witnessed the US escapade in Iraq and various other ventures, like the nod to Indonesia to invade East Timor and the nod to Pakistan to eliminate East Pakistan. Do you seriously believe he and the Politburo in Beijing are not concerned about the USA being on its doorstep? Of course they are. Any solution to the Korea problem will have to see the eventual disappearance of those 30,000 US troops. Now that’s another problem for the USA because where will they go? The Philippines was always a major military base but under Duterte it has already flipped and is with in the Chinese camp now. Apart from Japan, I can see no other country in Asia prepared to accept US military bases.

But I agree. With a unified Korea there should be no need for nuclear weapons to be based anywhere in Asia.

So we return to diplomatic dialogue. The USA cannot do this alone – but most commentators believe this is what Kim wants. As I pointed out in my last post, Clinton got on quite well in this regard but ran out of time. Bush and Obama totally fouled things up. I agree with Firecat - Kim has no desire to see his country go up in smoke, What he wants is recognition and a meeting with Trump. He then wants an agreement that his country will remain in place and he will stay in power. With assurances also signed by China, Japan and South Korea , I reckon this has a chance of happening with the proviso that he gives up his nukes and generally disarms – all as approved by the relevant inspectors. The USA may then get somewhere. Hopefully!


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