What happened to North Korea?

fountainhall
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#91 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby fountainhall » Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:09 pm

Interesting discussion on NK between Charlie Rose and Henry Kissinger. I'm no fan of Kissinger in view of his past record. But what he was saying made a lot of sense. The North's Generals will not rise up against Kim. Kim has very effectively eliminated all possible opposition within their ranks. For example he has had killed 5 of the 6 pallbearers at his father's funeral in addition to his uncle and his half-brother.

As for China, Kissinger suggests the US is approaching China the wrong way. China's concern surrounds what might happen if the North collapses for any reason. Instead of the US threatening China with sanctions now, it should be entering into secret negotiations with China to develop a joint agreement as to the shape and situation of the peninsula after the event. Thereafter both countries work back from that. He knows President Xi. He suggests Xi might not be averse to the US continuing to station troops in the South, as long as there were none in the North.

South Korea obviously has to be closely consulted. But it makes no sense for the two major players to be threatening each other when both have such a major stake in whatever is to happen.

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#92 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby Dodger » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:36 pm

N. Korea is just a pawn in this chess game between China and the U.S. and always has been.

I'm all for nuclear disarmament so don't get me wrong, but in this case I think we (the U.S.) should just lend our S. Korean allies about 2,000 or 3,000 nuclear missiles and mount those bastards right on the 38th parallel pointing north. Then send a two word message to Xi..."Game Over".

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#93 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby fountainhall » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:48 pm

As you say, it would be "Game Over" - but it would be game over for the South as well as the North. That means 10 - 40 million killed on both sides. But it would never get that far because China would never permit it. And the days are now over when the US can unilaterally dictate what goes in in China's sphere of influence.

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#94 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby firecat69 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:46 pm

What happened to Joachim.He was going to replace TJ. Maybe being back in the USA , he has wised up?

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Jun
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#95 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby Jun » Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:49 am

fountainhall wrote:As for China, Kissinger suggests the US is approaching China the wrong way. China's concern surrounds what might happen if the North collapses for any reason. Instead of the US threatening China with sanctions now, it should be entering into secret negotiations with China to develop a joint agreement as to the shape and situation of the peninsula after the event. Thereafter both countries work back from that. He knows President Xi. He suggests Xi might not be averse to the US continuing to station troops in the South, as long as there were none in the North.

That makes sense, assuming of course it is possible to reach such an agreement. I've never understood why the Chinese prefer a nutter with nuclear weapons as a neighbour ahead of an expanded South Korea.

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#96 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby fountainhall » Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:55 am

Jun wrote:I've never understood why the Chinese prefer a nutter with nuclear weapons as a neighbour ahead of an expanded South Korea.

I often feel the same way. But I think we have to remember that China entered the Korean War on the side of the North after the USA had entered on the side of the South. Soon both China and the North were pawns in the Cold War as it intensified. China's unexpected break with the Soviets opened the door to a degree of rapprochement which Nixon exploited in 1971. But it was not till the 1988 Olympic Games in Seoul that the Chinese agreed even to acknowledge South Korea, and another 4 years before the two countries opened diplomatic relations.

China's long term goal is the prevention of a united peninsula under the sphere of American influence. It therefore prefers a North with a few nukes in the certain knowledge that it would never dare launch one at China for that would result in immediate retaliation and the end of Kim and his regime. What China does not want in a world that is becoming increasingly bi-polar is a unified Korea under an American nuclear umbrella. To return to an analogy I brought up some time ago, the world came close to the brink of a nuclear holocaust when the Soviets placed missiles in Cuba and Kennedy insisted they be withdrawn. For the same reason, China has no desire to see American influence on its own doorstep increased.

Joachim

#97 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby Joachim » Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:53 am

firecat69 wrote:What happened to Joachim.He was going to replace TJ. Maybe being back in the USA , he has wised up?

I just flew through Seoul. There are absolutely no signs of "imminent war". Stop bullshitting!

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#98 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby fountainhall » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:21 am

Joachim wrote:I just flew through Seoul. There are absolutely no signs of "imminent war". Stop bullshitting!

Whoever said Seoul has ever had signs of "imminent war" in recent years? No one that I can recall - other than you. I have been to Seoul many times dating back to the early 1980s. Please tell us how many times you have your been there? How many nights have you spent in the city? How many times have you spent in the thriving bars and clubs in the Itaewon and Gangham districts that are always jam packed with young people enjoying themselves?

Or are you basing your conclusion on one transit at the airport which is way out of the city? I have never once - not once - seen any indication of any sign of even a possible war having spent a sum total of several months actually staying in the city! The only sign of aggression I have noted was tear gas lingering in the streets near the University area as students protested against martial law in the South. And that was 30 years and more ago!

Fake facts do nothing for what is a serious discussion.

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#99 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby Dodger » Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:36 am

South Koreans have been living with a subdued sense of "concern" about the communists in the North since the end of WWII - but I wouldn't call it fear.

North Korea has about a million soldiers comprised in its military - twice the size of South Korea's military in terms of head count - but not in any way superior. North Korean soldiers are under-fed, under-trained and don't have anywhere near the modern weaponry that the South does. Most of the money goes to those pot-bellied generals you see on TV. How they got all those medals they wear is a bit bewildering seeing as they haven't fought in a war in 64 years.

South Korean soldiers are highly trained, well-fed and fitted with the most advanced weaponry similar to the U.S. and could kick North Korea's ass in short order. Unfortunately, this could not be accomplished without enduring significant collateral damage primarily in Seoul. Even with U.S. ground and naval support Seoul would take a hit and of course that's not an option for anyone at this juncture.

I pulled two tours in Korea with the U.S. Army I Corps Uijeonbu just south of the DMZ (38th Parellel). Our camp was set on the same grounds as the 4077th M.A.S.H. Yes, that MASH. I spent many nights sitting on sand bags smoking weed staring out across the Imjin River with my binoculars wondering if those bastards were going to blow me sky high by launching an attack. I worked side-by-side with ROK Marines and was tasked with training Korean KATUSA soldiers (Korean Augmentation To the United States Army) which was quite an experience.

I have visited S. Korea many times since serving in the military and amazed and delighted at the progress they have made. On one side of the river (South side) you have a progressive and modern industrial country with young people walking around with I-phones, chatting on social media and eating dinner in cosmopolitan settings in Seoul and other major cites. On the North side of the river it is DARK and LONELY. No I-phones, no chatting on social media, no lights at night for the masses, no reliable clean water supply, limited food supplies...just nothing...nada...empty.

It would be nice to see the Kim's warped dynasty fall without causing more pain for the people of North Korea who have had to endure a life of hell all these years...regardless of who manages the damn real estate.

Joachim

#100 Re: What happened to North Korea?

Postby Joachim » Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:28 am

fountainhall wrote:
travelerjim wrote:Or an Obama legacy...

A comment that should bear a degree of approbation that would not find favour with the Board owner, I'm sure.

Much better to direct your ire at Republican President Eisenhower. After all, as I pointed out above, he is the one who unilaterally broke the Armistice Agreement by introducing nuclear weapons into the Korean Peninsula. Do you agree that Peace Treaties are there to be broken?

There is no peace treaty between North and South Korea. There is a temporal truce and technically the sides are in the state of war. You pretend to be an expert but it seems not familiar with basic facts.


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