You are correct. I only included two markets. The only reason is that it is difficult to find statistics for others. But having lived in Thailand for 17 years, my gut feel is that these are by far the two major markets. Canadians and Australians will certainly boost my estimate. But do you seriously believe there is more than a very small number of New Zealanders, Japanese, Koreans and other Europeans retired here? I don’t.
I note you have no source for the ThaiVisa comment re 600,000 - 700-000. You do not mention if these are retirees but you lead us to assume they are. You do not even provide the source. In fact, the number is vastly wrong on two counts. All websites I can find state the number of foreigners living in Thailand is actually well over 2 million? Yet the vast majority of that number are here on work visas. Think of the Japanese and German car plants. Think of all the Japanese corporations with bases here – and so on.
As for retirees, on the Quora website one writer states of the number of retired foreigners in Thailand –
https://www.quora.com/How-many-foreigne ... n-Thailand
The IOM [International Organisation of Migration] estimate . . . about 100,000 live here on retirement visas.
So I’ll happily revise my number up to 100,000. It’s still way short of 600,000 - 700,000.
In talking about Chinese tourists staying in your condo, do you seriously believe that the vast majority of Chinese tourists live in condos? I don’t. They live in relatively cheap hotels. Since most travel in groups, the tour leaders have to be able to bus them in and out quickly. They cannot do that if their party is spread around in condos!
As for their average spend, yes I rely to a large extent on Thai statistics. By why should Thailand skew its statistics for Chinese tourists but not for other tourists? Having spent more than a year working as a consultant to a national tourist organization, I know well that tourism figures are not merely for internal use. They are fed to several international bodies, each of which has the ability to seek verification.
I suggest you look at the statistics for 2016 (I use 2016 only because I cannot locate the same breakdown for 2017 but we know the Chinese daily spend increased in both 2017 and the first half of 2018). Indeed, the largest expenditure per day per tourist per region is China. It beats by a country mile the spend of those from the Americas and Europe.http://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism-income-Thailand.asp
You suggest the figure is baloney. Well why would the Chinese skew their own figures? Here are excerpts from a couple of very recent articles in The Bangkok Post.
1. The spending per trip for all Chinese going overseas was 5,200 yuan = Bt. 24,960. Note that is “all Chinese” and all trips. So it includes those going on short shopping weekends to places like Singapore and short sightseeing trips to Taiwan, as well as those on longer week and more long trips to places like Thailand. So the spend for longer Thai trips is bound to exceed the average quite considerably.
2. An official of the China National Tourism Authority has confirmed that “he's quite sure that from December they will come back to Thailand as a prime destination.”
3. You suggest “Bye, bye Thailand.” Sorry, but you seem to have little understanding of the Chinese and the desires of the massively growing middle class. Outbound tourism will certainly continue to increase.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/to ... nese-in-h1
Thailand remained the top destination for Chinese travelling abroad in the first half of the year, according to a joint report by the China Tourism Academy and online travel firm Ctrip.
The report said 71.3 million Chinese tourists departed from more than 200 Chinese cities en route to 130 countries in the first half, a 15% year-on-year increase . . .
Dai Bin, president of the China Tourism Authority, said the most popular destinations were Thailand, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, the US and Cambodia, in that order . . .
Average spending per person per trip for Chinese going overseas was 5,200 yuan (24,960 baht).
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/to ... ue-tourism
Gao Jian Jun, of the China National Tourism Administration in Tianjin, said the negative feelings about past problems in Thailand have gone.
He said that while it remains uncertain whether Chinese tourists will head to Thailand as usual during Golden Week (Oct 1-7), he's quite sure that from December they will come back to Thailand as a prime destination.
"The Chinese always think of Thailand among the top destinations," Mr Gao said. "Chinese travellers pay more attention to safety, and the Thai authorities have shown they are enthusiastic about laying out measures to deal with the issue."