Another View on the Value of Retired Expats to Thailand

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Jun

Re: Another View on the Value of Retired Expats to Thailand

Post by Jun »

That's a good point. Even with the recent relaxation of rules, most Chinese families have just one offspring.

As for Europe, well leaving the UK, there are an awful lot of middle aged single males on the plane, myself included. If the tourism authorities do a survey, don't expect them to declare they are spending 2000baht a day on hookers.

Also, the European country that sends the most people to Thailand is Russia. I don't know how much they spend, but their GDP per capita is about $11000, so it's possible they might be frugal.
fountainhall

Re: Another View on the Value of Retired Expats to Thailand

Post by fountainhall »

Frankly I don't know where Russia is included but I believe you are correct in that they are counted under Europe.

Image

Here's another chart from the same site. This one illustrates the Average Length of Stay. It is easy to see that Europeans on average stay longer than those from other destinations. I also have no idea how this breaks down between individuals and families. But using personal experience like Gera in an earlier post, I can tell you that I did spend 6 nights at the J W Marriott Resort in Khao Lak five years ago. Admittedly it was the week after Easter. Apart from two couples who looked Japanese, every other guest was caucasian - and I reckon 95% plus were families. In fact like many others, the hotel bills itself as a family destination.

Obviously singles (and straight and gay couples) will have made up a very significant number from all in-bound locations as you found on your flights. Although even here you need a breakdown. How many of those on the plane were using Bangkok as a hub to other regional destinations? Probably not very many but we have no way of knowing! In the absence of a breakdown of those statistics, it is impossible to do other then guess. That's why it is impossible to take personal views of one tiny area of the country or even just one hotel or flight and then make the assumption that the same is true for the rest of a very large country with a very large diversity of tourists.

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Just for interest, here is another chart showing Arrivals by Region. It's easy to see that almost two thirds of all visitors are from China, Asean and other East Asian countries. So overall figures for Total Spends and Average Spends are inevitably going to be skewed by that group.

Lastly, since concern has been expressed as to how daily spends are calculated and that Thailand may be skewing its statistics, here is a chart showing the similar figure for Hong Kong in 2017.

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The only difference between Hong Kong and Thailand is that HK uses the term "Overnight Visitor Expenditure" (which means 24 hour expenditure) and Thailand uses "Per Day". This is one standard by which governments base their tourism strategies and expenditure.
gera

Re: Another View on the Value of Retired Expats to Thailand

Post by gera »

Additional stimulus package is introduced in Thailand. Chinese arrivals fall sharply. This is just the beginning. And these are the measurable facts not just phony numbers about spending of Chinese tourists.

For details see the article in BKK post.
gera

Re: Another View on the Value of Retired Expats to Thailand

Post by gera »

I do not believe for a moment that a regular Chinese tourist spend 5000 per day. The only way these numbers can be obtained if one lumps together large groups of regular tourists with small group of wealthy Chinese investors who on average spend 100000-150000 USD per condo unit in Thailand.
However, these people are not tourists and should not be counted like that. By the way, one of the major reasons for Chinese to buy real estate outside China , because locally it is very expensive. This is despite the fact that 50 million houses in China are vacant. Just one example of totally skewed Chinese economy which will fall as a house of cards , if only Americans will have guts to continue with current policies.
gera

Re: Another View on the Value of Retired Expats to Thailand

Post by gera »

Talking about Alibaba. This is just bad parody of Amazon. If Amazon innovates (like cloud computing), build new infrastructure (like modern robot operated ware houses), Alibaba just trading platform. The only reason such a phony company can exist just because they have a billion plus consumers in their pocket and no foreign competition allowed within China. And that is pretty much a general story of "great rise of China" which is in reality nothing else as pathetic house of cards.
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Re: Another View on the Value of Retired Expats to Thailand

Post by Gaybutton »

gera wrote:For details see the article in BKK post.
When referring people to an article, please include a link to the article in your post.
fountainhall

Re: Another View on the Value of Retired Expats to Thailand

Post by fountainhall »

gera wrote:I do not believe for a moment that a regular Chinese tourist spend 5000 per day.
You have every right to your views, but I hope you realise you are basically accusing the national tourist agencies of Thailand and Hong Kong of using official statistics to lie to their governments, to the international media and to the international tourism bodies. That is a mighty significant accusation. Here's another set - from the UK.

Image

Again, do you seriously believe the UK national tourism organisation lies about visitor spends? In spite of statistics being offered on other posts, you have provided no back-up printed or other information for what appear to be merely personal views. Sorry, but that is how it seems. And tourism arrival and spend statistics do not take into account real estate purchases.

What has been discussed is "average" not regular or individual. Have you seen the droves of Chinese shoppers in the boutiques in Paragon and other high end retailers? Please remember also that a lot of Chinese business people transit through Bangkok spending at most a couple of nights here. The reason for that is that individuals cannot get visas for Hong Kong without a long application and consideration process. I have a friend in Shanghai with a significant business with bases in Shanghai and Beijing. He needs to get to Hong Kong to meet suppliers, customers and others related to that business. He is not prepared to wait 4 to 6 weeks each time. So he travels to Hong Kong via Bangkok, gets a visa here and waits only one day. He comes here several times a year for a couple of nights, stays at a 4- or 5-star hotel, eats well and then goes to Hong Kong. I have no idea of numbers who get to Hong Kong this way. Probably not very many. But it indicates that the Chinese you see in Pattaya or wherever are only part of a larger jigsaw.

Re Alibaba, interesting that its NYSE IPO was the largest in world history! As for its being merely a trading platform, that is, with respect, nonsense. It owns and operates a number of very different businesses around the world. Odd how Fortune magazine named it one of the world's most admired companies in January this year.

http://fortune.com/worlds-most-admired-companies/list/

I don't doubt your figures on the Chinese property market. It has been overbuilt for decades and many Chinese own two or even three as a form of speculation. If there is a market collapse. China will not be the first country to experience one. You might add that in addition to China, the Global Property Guide indicates property markets have slowed rapidly in countries like Canada, Sweden, South Korea, Qatar, Dubai etc.

https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/press-relations
gera

Re: Another View on the Value of Retired Expats to Thailand

Post by gera »

First of all I never said a word about Hong Kong statistics. I frequently travel in HK and it is quite obvious that mainlanders come to HK precisely for shopping. Thus, I do believe that they spend much more in HK than in Thaland. Let us now talk about facts. According to Thai census bureau the total number of foreigners living legally in Thailand was about 2.5 million people. Among them around 1.8 million were migrants from neighbouring countries (Laos, Burma etc). The difference is around 70000 gives a total number of expats (the data for 2010)https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Thailand. The average length of stay of Chinese tourist in Thailand is 9-10 days. Hence one expat is equivalent to 366/10=37 Chinese tourists. Thus , total number of Chinese tourists equivalent to 700000 expats should be around 18.5 million. This is ,of course, far exceeds total number of chinese tourists. In fact, it compares quite well with total number of tourist arrivals in Thailand. This is a simple arithmetic and give a good estimate of expats contribution to Thai economy. There may be other reasons why Thais want to diminish the number of expats but it hardly has anything to do with expat's contribution to Thai economy. Please, do not tell me about IPO prices of Alibaba. A lot of phony companies had great IPO to fail later. And yes Alibaba is just a trading platform. And its fortune totally depends on a whim of Chinese government (who just removed its founder Jack Ma just because they decided to do so).
gera

Re: Another View on the Value of Retired Expats to Thailand

Post by gera »

gera wrote:Additional stimulus package is introduced in Thailand. Chinese arrivals fall sharply. This is just the beginning. And these are the measurable facts not just phony numbers about spending of Chinese tourists.

For details see the article in BKK post.
"The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) reported that Chinese visitors to Thailand shrank by 11.4% in July and August, then fell by 14.4% and 19.1% in September and October, respectively," said Nathporn... 
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/to ... raws-added.
fountainhall

Re: Another View on the Value of Retired Expats to Thailand

Post by fountainhall »

I have no idea how many foreigners actually live in Thailand but I will believe the statistics. What you do not mention - and which I already have - is the number who are here on retirement vs those on work visas. I quoted from the official Organisation of International Migration that there are about 100,000 retirees in Thailand. So your numbers for expat spending are totally skewed towards those working here. You suggested figures have to be reduced by 1/6th or 1/7th to get a more accurate figure. Even then, I will make my own observation that the average spend of those here working for international companies on work visas is greater than the average retiree. But that's just my view.

You still have provided nothing to back up your suggestion that the Thai tourism per day spending figures are a lie - or indeed why they should be a lie! What does that serve?

As for Alibaba, I quoted facts. Your alleged facts are incorrect - although i agree that a lot of companies with IPOs do fail. But I wonder how many on the Fortune 100 list have failed in earlier years? Perhaps you can inform us. You may also not have read the Sept/Oct 2018 issue of the Harvard Business Review
Alibaba today is not just an online commerce company. It is what you get if you take all functions associated with retail and coordinate them online into a sprawling, data-driven network of sellers, marketers, service providers, logistics companies, and manufacturers. In other words, Alibaba does what Amazon, eBay, PayPal, Google, FedEx, wholesalers, and a good portion of manufacturers do in the United States, with a healthy helping of financial services for garnish.
https://hbr.org/2018/09/alibaba-and-the ... f-business
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