Baht at 30 month high against US dollar

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Gaybutton
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#1 Baht at 30 month high against US dollar

Postby Gaybutton » Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:54 am

To make a long story short, the baht has reached a 30 month high against the US dollar and is expected to get stronger. Thank you Mr. Trump . . . !!!

If you wish to read about it, see: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fi ... month-high

You can check current exchange rates at: http://www.scb.co.th/scb_api/index.jsp

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#2 Re: Baht at 30 month high against US dollar

Postby fountainhall » Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:27 am

I always treat financial predictions with a heavy dose of salt having been burned too many times in the past. After all it's only six months ago that one thread based on a newspaper report highlighted the following -

Baht expected to reach 36 to US dollar in July - 37 by end of the year

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#3 Re: Baht at 30 month high against US dollar

Postby Maple » Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:27 pm

Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob says "The dollar is weakening because of uncertainties regarding the US tax reform plan."

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#4 Re: Baht at 30 month high against US dollar

Postby fountainhall » Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:56 pm

Considering the Baht has been strengthening against the US$ over the past year, that's a pretty meaningless statement from the Bank of Thailand governor. The peak was Bt. 36.04 last December and it has been a steady decline ever since.

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#5 Re: Baht at 30 month high against US dollar

Postby Gaybutton » Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:10 pm

fountainhall wrote:The peak was Bt. 36.04 last December and it has been a steady decline ever since.

You know the old saying - "What goes up must come down."

The trouble is, the dollar keeps coming down . . .

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#6 Re: Baht at 30 month high against US dollar

Postby Jun » Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:27 pm

Measuring the dollar against a basket of currencies, one could choose to interpret the chart as a having a long term underlying decline, with a lot of noise superimposed on top. Or possibly some other interpretation.

I choose the long term decline interpretation, which is about right for a country running up debts and persistently running a balance of trade deficit. ie They cannot manage to balance trade at the current exchange rate.

Whatever the interpretation, it is wise to assume the rates could fluctuate significantly either way on a 5 or 10 year time horizon.

If you want another example of a currency that has declined over the long term, for similar reasons, look at the GBP. That has a poor track record. I always assume further decline is possible. With all the debt, an incompetent government and seriously incompetent opposition, it seems likely.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index#/media/File:US_Dollar_Index_from_Stooq_dot_com.png


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